The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian analysis

Background: Accurate measures of the severity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (pH1N1) are needed to assess the likely impact of an anticipated resurgence in the autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. Severity has been difficult to measure because jurisdictions with large numbers of deaths and other severe outcomes have had too many cases to assess the total number with confidence. Also, detection of severe cases may be more likely, resulting in overestimation of the severity of an average case. We sought to estimate the probabilities that symptomatic infection would lead to hospitalization, ICU admission, and death by combining data from multiple sources. Methods and Findings: We used complementary data from two US cities: Milwaukee attempted to identify cases of medically attended infection whether or not they required hospitalization, while New York City focused on the identification of hospitalizations, intensive care admission or mechanical ventilation (hereafter, ICU), and deaths. New York data were used to estimate numerators for ICU and death, and two sources of data - medically attended cases in Milwaukee or self-reported influenza-like illness (ILI) in New York - were used to estimate ratios of symptomatic cases to hospitalizations. Combining these data with estimates of the fraction detected for each level of severity, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic patients who died (symptomatic case-fatality ratio, sCFR), required ICU (sCIR), and required hospitalization (sCHR), overall and by age category. Evidence, prior information, and associated uncertainty were analyzed in a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. Using medically attended cases and estimates of the proportion of symptomatic cases medically attended, we estimated an sCFR of 0.048% (95% credible interval [CI] 0.026%-0.096%), sCIR of 0.239% (0.134%-0.458%), and sCHR of 1.44% (0.83%-2.64%). Using self-reported ILI, we obtained estimates approximately 7-96lower. sCFR and sCIR appear to be highest in persons aged 18 y and older, and lowest in children aged 5-17 y. sCHR appears to be lowest in persons aged 5-17; our data were too sparse to allow us to determine the group in which it was the highest. Conclusions: These estimates suggest that an autumn-winter pandemic wave of pH1N1 with comparable severity per case could lead to a number of deaths in the range from considerably below that associated with seasonal influenza to slightly higher, but with the greatest impact in children aged 0-4 and adults 18-64. These estimates of impact depend on assumptions about total incidence of infection and would be larger if incidence of symptomatic infection were higher or shifted toward adults, if viral virulence increased, or if suboptimal treatment resulted from stress on the health care system; numbers would decrease if the total proportion of the population symptomatically infected were lower than assumed.published_or_final_versio

Altered primary chromatin structures and their implications in cancer development

© 2016, International Society for Cellular Oncology.Background: Cancer development is a complex process involving both genetic and epigenetic changes. Genetic changes in oncogenes and tumor-suppressor genes are generally considered as primary causes, since these genes may directly regulate cellular growth. In addition, it has been found that changes in epigenetic factors, through mutation or altered gene expression, may contribute to cancer development. In the nucleus of eukaryotic cells DNA and histone proteins form a structure called chromatin which consists of nucleosomes that, like beads on a string, are aligned along the DNA strand. Modifications in chromatin structure are essential for cell type-specific activation or repression of gene transcription, as well as other processes such as DNA repair, DNA replication and chromosome segregation. Alterations in epigenetic factors involved in chromatin dynamics may accelerate cell cycle progression and, ultimately, result in malignant transformation. Abnormal expression of remodeler and modifier enzymes, as well as histone variants, may confer to cancer cells the ability to reprogram their genomes and to yield, maintain or exacerbate malignant hallmarks. At the end, genetic and epigenetic alterations that are encountered in cancer cells may culminate in chromatin changes that may, by altering the quantity and quality of gene expression, promote cancer development. Methods: During the last decade a vast number of studies has uncovered epigenetic abnormalities that are associated with the (anomalous) packaging and remodeling of chromatin in cancer genomes. In this review I will focus on recently published work dealing with alterations in the primary structure of chromatin resulting from imprecise arrangements of nucleosomes along DNA, and its functional implications for cancer development. Conclusions: The primary chromatin structure is regulated by a variety of epigenetic mechanisms that may be deregulated through gene mutations and/or gene expression alterations. In recent years, it has become evident that changes in chromatin structure may coincide with the occurrence of cancer hallmarks. The functional interrelationships between such epigenetic alterations and cancer development are just becoming manifest and, therefore, the oncology community should continue to explore the molecular mechanisms governing the primary chromatin structure, both in normal and in cancer cells, in order to improve future approaches for cancer detection, prevention and therapy, as also for circumventing drug resistance