Predicting sporadic Alzheimer's disease progression via inherited Alzheimer's disease‐informed machine‐learning

Introduction Developing cross‐validated multi‐biomarker models for the prediction of the rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a critical yet unmet clinical challenge. Methods We applied support vector regression to AD biomarkers derived from cerebrospinal fluid, structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), amyloid‐PET and fluorodeoxyglucose positron‐emission tomography (FDG‐PET) to predict rates of cognitive decline. Prediction models were trained in autosomal‐dominant Alzheimer's disease (ADAD, n = 121) and subsequently cross‐validated in sporadic prodromal AD (n = 216). The sample size needed to detect treatment effects when using model‐based risk enrichment was estimated. Results A model combining all biomarker modalities and established in ADAD predicted the 4‐year rate of decline in global cognition (R2 = 24%) and memory (R2 = 25%) in sporadic AD. Model‐based risk‐enrichment reduced the sample size required for detecting simulated intervention effects by 50%–75%. Discussion Our independently validated machine‐learning model predicted cognitive decline in sporadic prodromal AD and may substantially reduce sample size needed in clinical trials in AD

Resting-State Functional Connectivity Disruption as a Pathological Biomarker in Autosomal Dominant Alzheimer Disease

AIM: Identify a global resting state functional connectivity (gFC) signature in mutation carriers (MC) from the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network (DIAN). Assess the gFC with regards to amyloid (A), tau (T), and neurodegeneration (N) biomarkers and estimated years to symptom onset (EYO). INTRODUCTION: Cross-sectional measures were assessed in MC (n=171) and mutation non-carriers (NC) (n=70) participants. A FC matrix that encompassed multiple resting state networks (RSNs) was computed for each participant. METHODS: A gFC was compiled as a single index indicating functional connectivity strength. Global FC signature was modeled as a non-linear function of EYO. gFC was linearly associated with other biomarkers used for assessing the AT(N) framework including: cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), positron emission tomography (PET) molecular biomarkers, and structural magnetic resonance imaging. RESULTS: The gFC was reduced in MC compared to NC participants. When MC participants were differentiated by clinical dementia rating (CDR), the gFC was significantly decreased in MC CDR > 0 (demented) compared to either MC CDR 0 (cognitively normal) or NC participants. The gFC varied non-linearly with EYO and initially decreased at EYO = -24 years, followed by a stable period followed by a further decline near EYO =0 years. Irrespective of EYO, a lower gFC associated with values of amyloid PET, CSF Aβ1-42, CSF p-tau, CSF t-tau, FDG and hippocampal volume. CONCLUSIONS: The gFC correlated with biomarkers used for defining the AT(N) framework. A biphasic change in the gFC suggested early changes associated with CSF amyloid and later changes associated with hippocampal volume

Comparing amyloid-β plaque burden with antemortem PiB PET in autosomal dominant and late-onset Alzheimer disease

Pittsburgh compound B (PiB) radiotracer for positron emission tomography (PET) imaging can bind to different types of amyloid-β plaques and blood vessels (cerebral amyloid angiopathy). However, the relative contributions of different plaque subtypes (diffuse versus cored/compact) to in vivo PiB PET signal on a region-by-region basis is incompletely understood. Of particular interest is whether the same staging schemes for summarizing amyloid-β burden are appropriate for both late-onset and autosomal dominant forms of Alzheimer disease (LOAD and ADAD). Here we compared antemortem PiB PET with follow-up postmortem estimation of amyloid-β burden using stereologic methods to estimate the relative area fraction of diffuse and cored/compact amyloid-β plaques across 16 brain regions in 15 individuals with ADAD and 14 individuals with LOAD. In ADAD, we found that PiB PET correlated with diffuse plaques in the frontal, parietal, temporal, and striatal regions commonly used to summarize amyloid-β burden in PiB PET, and correlated with both diffuse and cored/compact plaques in the occipital lobe and parahippocampal gyrus. In LOAD, we found that PiB PET correlated with both diffuse and cored/compact plaques in the anterior cingulate, frontal lobe (middle frontal gyrus), and parietal lobe, and showed additional correlations with diffuse plaque in the amygdala and occipital lobe, and with cored/compact plaque in the temporal lobe. Thus, commonly used PiB PET summary regions predominantly reflect diffuse plaque burden in ADAD and a mixture of diffuse and cored/compact plaque burden in LOAD. In direct comparisons of ADAD and LOAD, postmortem stereology identified much greater mean amyloid-β plaque burdens in ADAD versus LOAD across almost all brain regions studied. However, standard PiB PET did not recapitulate these stereologic findings, likely due to non-trivial amyloid-β plaque burdens in ADAD within the cerebellum and brainstem – commonly used reference regions in PiB PET. Our findings suggest that PiB PET summary regions correlate with amyloid-β plaque burden in both ADAD and LOAD; however, they might not be reliable in direct comparisons of regional amyloid-β plaque burden between the two forms of AD

Clinical and Biomarker Changes in Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer's Disease

BACKGROUND: The order and magnitude of pathologic processes in Alzheimer's disease are not well understood, partly because the disease develops over many years. Autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease has a predictable age at onset and provides an opportunity to determine the sequence and magnitude of pathologic changes that culminate in symptomatic disease. METHODS: In this prospective, longitudinal study, we analyzed data from 128 participants who underwent baseline clinical and cognitive assessments, brain imaging, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and blood tests. We used the participant's age at baseline assessment and the parent's age at the onset of symptoms of Alzheimer's disease to calculate the estimated years from expected symptom onset (age of the participant minus parent's age at symptom onset). We conducted cross-sectional analyses of baseline data in relation to estimated years from expected symptom onset in order to determine the relative order and magnitude of pathophysiological changes. RESULTS: Concentrations of amyloid-beta (Aβ)(42) in the CSF appeared to decline 25 years before expected symptom onset. Aβ deposition, as measured by positron-emission tomography with the use of Pittsburgh compound B, was detected 15 years before expected symptom onset. Increased concentrations of tau protein in the CSF and an increase in brain atrophy were detected 15 years before expected symptom onset. Cerebral hypometabolism and impaired episodic memory were observed 10 years before expected symptom onset. Global cognitive impairment, as measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination and the Clinical Dementia Rating scale, was detected 5 years before expected symptom onset, and patients met diagnostic criteria for dementia at an average of 3 years after expected symptom onset. CONCLUSIONS: We found that autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease was associated with a series of pathophysiological changes over decades in CSF biochemical markers of Alzheimer's disease, brain amyloid deposition, and brain metabolism as well as progressive cognitive impairment. Our results require confirmation with the use of longitudinal data and may not apply to patients with sporadic Alzheimer's disease. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and others; DIAN ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00869817.)

Evaluation of dose-dependent treatment effects after mid-trial dose escalation in biomarker, clinical, and cognitive outcomes for gantenerumab or solanezumab in dominantly inherited Alzheimer's disease

Introduction: While the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network Trials Unit (DIAN-TU) was ongoing, external data suggested higher doses were needed to achieve targeted effects; therefore, doses of gantenerumab were increased 5-fold, and solanezumab was increased 4-fold. We evaluated to what extent mid-trial dose increases produced a dose-dependent treatment effect. Methods: Using generalized linear mixed effects (LME) models, we estimated the annual low- and high-dose treatment effects in clinical, cognitive, and biomarker outcomes. Results: Both gantenerumab and solanezumab demonstrated dose-dependent treatment effects (significant for gantenerumab, non-significant for solanezumab) in their respective target amyloid biomarkers (Pittsburgh compound B positron emission tomography standardized uptake value ratio and cerebrospinal fluid amyloid beta 42), with gantenerumab demonstrating additional treatment effects in some downstream biomarkers. No dose-dependent treatment effects were observed in clinical or cognitive outcomes. Conclusions: Mid-trial dose escalation can be implemented as a remedy for an insufficient initial dose and can be more cost effective and less burdensome to participants than starting a new trial with higher doses, especially in rare diseases. Highlights: We evaluated the dose-dependent treatment effect of two different amyloid-specific immunotherapies. Dose-dependent treatment effects were observed in some biomarkers. No dose-dependent treatment effects were observed in clinical/cognitive outcomes, potentially due to the fact that the modified study may not have been powered to detect such treatment effects in symptomatic subjects at a mild stage of disease exposed to high (or maximal) doses of medication for prolonged durations

T1 and FLAIR signal intensities are related to tau pathology in dominantly inherited Alzheimer disease

Carriers of mutations responsible for dominantly inherited Alzheimer disease provide a unique opportunity to study potential imaging biomarkers. Biomarkers based on routinely acquired clinical MR images, could supplement the extant invasive or logistically challenging) biomarker studies. We used 1104 longitudinal MR, 324 amyloid beta, and 87 tau positron emission tomography imaging sessions from 525 participants enrolled in the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network Observational Study to extract novel imaging metrics representing the mean (μ) and standard deviation (σ) of standardized image intensities of T1-weighted and Fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) MR scans. There was an exponential decrease in FLAIR-μ in mutation carriers and an increase in FLAIR and T1 signal heterogeneity (T1-σ and FLAIR-σ) as participants approached the symptom onset in both supramarginal, the right postcentral and right superior temporal gyri as well as both caudate nuclei, putamina, thalami, and amygdalae. After controlling for the effect of regional atrophy, FLAIR-μ decreased and T1-σ and FLAIR-σ increased with increasing amyloid beta and tau deposition in numerous cortical regions. In symptomatic mutation carriers and independent of the effect of regional atrophy, tau pathology demonstrated a stronger relationship with image intensity metrics, compared with amyloid pathology. We propose novel MR imaging intensity-based metrics using standard clinical T1 and FLAIR images which strongly associates with the progression of pathology in dominantly inherited Alzheimer disease. We suggest that tau pathology may be a key driver of the observed changes in this cohort of patients

Clinical and biomarker changes in dominantly inherited Alzheimer\u27s disease

BACKGROUND: The order and magnitude of pathologic processes in Alzheimer\u27s disease are not well understood, partly because the disease develops over many years. Autosomal dominant Alzheimer\u27s disease has a predictable age at onset and provides an opportunity to determine the sequence and magnitude of pathologic changes that culminate in symptomatic disease. METHODS: In this prospective, longitudinal study, we analyzed data from 128 participants who underwent baseline clinical and cognitive assessments, brain imaging, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and blood tests. We used the participant\u27s age at baseline assessment and the parent\u27s age at the onset of symptoms of Alzheimer\u27s disease to calculate the estimated years from expected symptom onset (age of the participant minus parent\u27s age at symptom onset). We conducted cross-sectional analyses of baseline data in relation to estimated years from expected symptom onset in order to determine the relative order and magnitude of pathophysiological changes. RESULTS: Concentrations of amyloid-beta (Aβ) 42 in the CSF appeared to decline 25 years before expected symptom onset. Aβ deposition, as measured by positron-emission tomography with the use of Pittsburgh compound B, was detected 15 years before expected symptom onset. Increased concentrations of tau protein in the CSF and an increase in brain atrophy were detected 15 years before expected symptom onset. Cerebral hypometabolism and impaired episodic memory were observed 10 years before expected symptom onset. Global cognitive impairment, as measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination and the Clinical Dementia Rating scale, was detected 5 years before expected symptom onset, and patients met diagnostic criteria for dementia at an average of 3 years after expected symptom onset. CONCLUSIONS: We found that autosomal dominant Alzheimer\u27s disease was associated with a series of pathophysiological changes over decades in CSF biochemical markers of Alzheimer\u27s disease, brain amyloid deposition, and brain metabolism as well as progressive cognitive impairment. Our results require confirmation with the use of longitudinal data and may not apply to patients with sporadic Alzheimer\u27s disease. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and others; DIAN ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00869817.

Amyloid and Tau Pathology Associations With Personality Traits, Neuropsychiatric Symptoms, and Cognitive Lifestyle in the Preclinical Phases of Sporadic and Autosomal Dominant Alzheimer's Disease

Background: Major prevention trials for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) are now focusing on multidomain lifestyle interventions. However, the exact combination of behavioral factors related to AD pathology remains unclear. In 2 cohorts of cognitively unimpaired individuals at risk of AD, we examined which combinations of personality traits, neuropsychiatric symptoms, and cognitive lifestyle (years of education or lifetime cognitive activity) related to the pathological hallmarks of AD, amyloid-β, and tau deposits. Methods: A total of 115 older adults with a parental or multiple-sibling family history of sporadic AD (PREVENT-AD [PRe-symptomatic EValuation of Experimental or Novel Treatments for AD] cohort) underwent amyloid and tau positron emission tomography and answered several questionnaires related to behavioral attributes. Separately, we studied 117 mutation carriers from the DIAN (Dominant Inherited Alzheimer Network) study group cohort with amyloid positron emission tomography and behavioral data. Using partial least squares analysis, we identified latent variables relating amyloid or tau pathology with combinations of personality traits, neuropsychiatric symptoms, and cognitive lifestyle. Results: In PREVENT-AD, lower neuroticism, neuropsychiatric burden, and higher education were associated with less amyloid deposition (p = .014). Lower neuroticism and neuropsychiatric features, along with higher measures of openness and extraversion, were related to less tau deposition (p = .006). In DIAN, lower neuropsychiatric burden and higher education were also associated with less amyloid (p = .005). The combination of these factors accounted for up to 14% of AD pathology. Conclusions: In the preclinical phase of both sporadic and autosomal dominant AD, multiple behavioral features were associated with AD pathology. These results may suggest potential pathways by which multidomain interventions might help delay AD onset or progression

Variant-dependent heterogeneity in amyloid β burden in autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease: cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of an observational study

Background: Insights gained from studying individuals with autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease have broadly influenced mechanistic hypotheses, biomarker development, and clinical trials in both sporadic and dominantly inherited Alzheimer's disease. Although pathogenic variants causing autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease are highly penetrant, there is substantial heterogeneity in levels of amyloid β (Aβ) between individuals. We aimed to examine whether this heterogeneity is related to disease progression and to investigate the association with mutation location within PSEN1, PSEN2, or APP. Methods: We did cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of data from the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer's Network (DIAN) observational study, which enrols individuals from families affected by autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease. 340 participants in the DIAN study who were aged 18 years or older, had a history of autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease in their family, and who were enrolled between September, 2008, and June, 2019, were included in our analysis. 206 participants were carriers of pathogenic mutations in PSEN1, PSEN2, or APP, and 134 were non-carriers. 62 unique pathogenic variants were identified in the cohort and were grouped in two ways. First, we sorted variants in PSEN1, PSEN2, or APP by the affected protein domain. Second, we divided PSEN1 variants according to position before or after codon 200. We examined variant-dependent variability in Aβ biomarkers, specifically Pittsburgh-Compound-B PET (PiB-PET) signal, levels of CSF Aβ1-42 (Aβ42), and levels of Aβ1-40 (Aβ40). Findings: Cortical and striatal PiB-PET signal showed striking variant-dependent variability using both grouping approaches (p0·7), and CSF Aβ42 levels (codon-based grouping: p=0·49; domain-based grouping: p=0·095). Longitudinal PiB-PET signal also varied across codon-based groups, mirroring cross-sectional analyses. Interpretation: Autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease pathogenic variants showed highly differential temporal and regional patterns of PiB-PET signal, despite similar functional progression. These findings suggest that although increased PiB-PET signal is generally seen in autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease, higher levels of PiB-PET signal at an individual level might not reflect more severe or more advanced disease. Our results have high relevance for ongoing clinical trials in autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease, including those using Aβ PET as a surrogate marker of disease progression. Additionally, and pertinent to both sporadic and autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease, our results suggest that CSF and PET measures of Aβ levels are not interchangeable and might reflect different Aβ-driven pathobiological processes. Funding: National Institute on Aging, Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases, Japanese Agency for Medical Research and Development