Node-Level Conflict Measures in Bayesian Hierarchical Models Based on Directed Acyclic Graphs

Over the last decades, Bayesian hierarchical models defined by means of directed, acyclic graphs have become an essential and widely used methodology in the analysis of complex data. Simulation-based model criticism in such models can be based on conflict measures constructed by contrasting separate local information sources about each node in the graph. An initial suggestion of such a measure was not well calibrated. This shortcoming has, however, to a large extent been rectified by subsequently proposed alternative mutually similar tail probability-based measures, which have been proved to be uniformly distributed under the assumed model under various circumstances, and in particular, in quite general normal models with known covariance matrices. An advantage of this is that computationally costly precalibration schemes needed for some other suggested methods can be avoided. Another advantage is that noninformative prior distributions can be used when performing model criticism. In this chapter, we describe the basic framework and review the main uniformity results

Breeding for genetic resistance to Salmonella in pigs

Previous experimental Salmonella infection studies in Denmark have shown that some pigs remain faecal culture negative and seronegative despite oral inoculation with 10 c.f.u. S. Typhimunum and housing in highly contaminated pens, suggesting that some pigs are genetically resistant to Salmonella. Our study tested the following hypothesis: The Salmonella-negative status in certain pigs is due to genetic resistance, related to a single gene The resistance gene was supposed to have a low frequency and to be recessive and that full resistance only would appear if both alleles were recessive

Even more suicide attempts in clinical trials with paroxetine randomised against placebo

BACKGROUND: Following our previous publication we have received critical comments to our conclusions as well as new data that are strengthening our findings. RESULTS: With the new data, 11 suicide attempts among patients on paroxetine against 1 among patients on placebo, we found with a Bayesian technique that the posterior probability that medication with paroxetine is associated with an increased intensity per year of a suicide attempt is from 0.98 to 0.99, depending on the prior. We found that the comment to our article by GSK representatives contained errors, misunderstanding and unwillingness to accept Bayesian principles in the analysis of clinical trials. CONCLUSION: We were in our previous publication, with preliminary data and a Bayesian approach, able to raise a concern that suicide attempts might be connected with the use of paroxetine. This suspicion has now been confirmed

Certainty Closure: Reliable Constraint Reasoning with Incomplete or Erroneous Data

Constraint Programming (CP) has proved an effective paradigm to model and solve difficult combinatorial satisfaction and optimisation problems from disparate domains. Many such problems arising from the commercial world are permeated by data uncertainty. Existing CP approaches that accommodate uncertainty are less suited to uncertainty arising due to incomplete and erroneous data, because they do not build reliable models and solutions guaranteed to address the user's genuine problem as she perceives it. Other fields such as reliable computation offer combinations of models and associated methods to handle these types of uncertain data, but lack an expressive framework characterising the resolution methodology independently of the model. We present a unifying framework that extends the CP formalism in both model and solutions, to tackle ill-defined combinatorial problems with incomplete or erroneous data. The certainty closure framework brings together modelling and solving methodologies from different fields into the CP paradigm to provide reliable and efficient approches for uncertain constraint problems. We demonstrate the applicability of the framework on a case study in network diagnosis. We define resolution forms that give generic templates, and their associated operational semantics, to derive practical solution methods for reliable solutions.Comment: Revised versio

Closely-related Borrelia burgdorferi (sensu stricto) strains exhibit similar fitness in single infections and asymmetric competition in multiple infections

Wild hosts are commonly co-infected with complex, genetically diverse, pathogen communities. Competition is expected between genetically or ecologically similar pathogen strains which may influence patterns of coexistence. However, there is little data on how specific strains of these diverse pathogen species interact within the host and how this impacts pathogen persistence in nature. Ticks are the most common disease vector in temperate regions with Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease, being the most common vector-borne pathogen in North America. Borrelia burgdorferi is a pathogen of high public health concern and there is significant variation in infection phenotype between strains, which influences predictions of pathogen dynamics and spread.In a laboratory experiment, we investigated whether two closely-related strains of B. burgdorferi (sensu stricto) showed similar transmission phenotypes, how the transmission of these strains changed when a host was infected with one strain, re-infected with the same strain, or co-infected with two strains. Ixodes scapularis, the black-legged tick, nymphs were used to sequentially infect laboratory-bred Peromyscus leucopus, white-footed mice, with one strain only, homologous infection with the same stain, or heterologous infection with both strains. We used the results of this laboratory experiment to simulate long-term persistence and maintenance of each strain in a simple simulation model.Strain LG734 was more competitive than BL206, showing no difference in transmission between the heterologous infection groups and single-infection controls, while strain BL206 transmission was significantly reduced when strain LG734 infected first. The results of the model show that this asymmetry in competition could lead to extinction of strain BL206 unless there was a tick-to-host transmission advantage to this less competitive strain.This asymmetric competitive interaction suggests that strain identity and the biotic context of co-infection is important to predict strain dynamics and persistence

Generation of folk song melodies using Bayes transforms

The paper introduces the `Bayes transform', a mathematical procedure for putting data into a hierarchical representation. Applicable to any type of data, the procedure yields interesting results when applied to sequences. In this case, the representation obtained implicitly models the repetition hierarchy of the source. There are then natural applications to music. Derivation of Bayes transforms can be the means of determining the repetition hierarchy of note sequences (melodies) in an empirical and domain-general way. The paper investigates application of this approach to Folk Song, examining the results that can be obtained by treating such transforms as generative models

Antagonist HIV-1 Gag Peptides Induce Structural Changes in HLA B8

In the cellular immune response, recognition by CTL-TCRs of viral antigens presented as peptides by HLA class I molecules, triggers destruction of the virally infected cell (Townsend, A.R.M., J. Rothbard, F.M. Gotch, G. Bahadur, D. Wraith, and A.J. McMichael. 1986. Cell. 44:959–968). Altered peptide ligands (APLs) which antagonise CTL recognition of infected cells have been reported (Jameson, S.C., F.R. Carbone, and M.J. Bevan. 1993. J. Exp. Med. 177:1541–1550). In one example, lysis of antigen presenting cells by CTLs in response to recognition of an HLA B8–restricted HIV-1 P17 (aa 24–31) epitope can be inhibited by naturally occurring variants of this peptide, which act as TCR antagonists (Klenerman, P., S. Rowland Jones, S. McAdam, J. Edwards, S. Daenke, D. Lalloo, B. Koppe, W. Rosenberg, D. Boyd, A. Edwards, P. Giangrande, R.E. Phillips, and A. McMichael. 1994. Nature (Lond.). 369:403– 407). We have characterised two CTL clones and a CTL line whose interactions with these variants of P17 (aa 24–31) exhibit a variety of responses. We have examined the high resolution crystal structures of four of these APLs in complex with HLA B8 to determine alterations in the shape, chemistry, and local flexibility of the TCR binding surface. The variant peptides cause changes in the recognition surface by three mechanisms: changes contributed directly by the peptide, effects transmitted to the exposed peptide surface, and induced effects on the exposed framework of the peptide binding groove. While the first two mechanisms frequently lead to antagonism, the third has more profound effects on TCR recognition

Active flow control systems architectures for civil transport aircraft

Copyright @ 2010 American Institute of Aeronautics and AstronauticsThis paper considers the effect of choice of actuator technology and associated power systems architecture on the mass cost and power consumption of implementing active flow control systems on civil transport aircraft. The research method is based on the use of a mass model that includes a mass due to systems hardware and a mass due to the system energy usage. An Airbus A320 aircraft wing is used as a case-study application. The mass model parameters are based on first-principle physical analysis of electric and pneumatic power systems combined with empirical data on system hardware from existing equipment suppliers. Flow control methods include direct fluidic, electromechanical-fluidic, and electrofluidic actuator technologies. The mass cost of electrical power distribution is shown to be considerably less than that for pneumatic systems; however, this advantage is reduced by the requirement for relatively heavy electrical power management and conversion systems. A tradeoff exists between system power efficiency and the system hardware mass required to achieve this efficiency. For short-duration operation the flow control solution is driven toward lighter but less power-efficient systems, whereas for long-duration operation there is benefit in considering heavier but more efficient systems. It is estimated that a practical electromechanical-fluidic system for flow separation control may have a mass up to 40% of the slat mass for a leading-edge application and 5% of flap mass for a trailing-edge application.This work is funded by the Sixth European Union Framework Programme as part of the AVERT project (Contract No. AST5-CT-2006-030914