Identifying influencers in a social network : the value of real referral data

Individuals influence each other through social interactions and marketers aim to leverage this interpersonal influence to attract new customers. It still remains a challenge to identify those customers in a social network that have the most influence on their social connections. A common approach to the influence maximization problem is to simulate influence cascades through the network based on the existence of links in the network using diffusion models. Our study contributes to the literature by evaluating these principles using real-life referral behaviour data. A new ranking metric, called Referral Rank, is introduced that builds on the game theoretic concept of the Shapley value for assigning each individual in the network a value that reflects the likelihood of referring new customers. We also explore whether these methods can be further improved by looking beyond the one-hop neighbourhood of the influencers. Experiments on a large telecommunication data set and referral data set demonstrate that using traditional simulation based methods to identify influencers in a social network can lead to suboptimal decisions as the results overestimate actual referral cascades. We also find that looking at the influence of the two-hop neighbours of the customers improves the influence spread and product adoption. Our findings suggest that companies can take two actions to improve their decision support system for identifying influential customers: (1) improve the data by incorporating data that reflects the actual referral behaviour of the customers or (2) extend the method by looking at the influence of the connections in the two-hop neighbourhood of the customers

Bayesian adaptive lasso quantile regression

Recently, variable selection by penalized likelihood has attracted much research interest. In this paper, we propose adaptive Lasso quantile regression (BALQR) from a Bayesian perspective. The method extends the Bayesian Lasso quantile regression by allowing different penalization parameters for different regression coefficients. Inverse gamma prior distributions are placed on the penalty parameters. We treat the hyperparameters of the inverse gamma prior as unknowns and estimate them along with the other parameters. A Gibbs sampler is developed to simulate the parameters from the posterior distributions. Through simulation studies and analysis of a prostate cancer dataset, we compare the performance of the BALQR method proposed with six existing Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods. The simulation studies and the prostate cancer data analysis indicate that the BALQR method performs well in comparison to the other approaches

Intergroup reconciliation between Flemings and Walloons : the predictive value of cognitive style, authoritarian ideology, and intergroup emotions

Testifying to the gap in fundamental research on positive intergroup outcomes, we investigated reconciliation attitudes in a non-violent intergroup context (i.e., the linguistic conflict in Belgium). By incorporating both important predictors of negative outgroup attitudes (i.e., individual differences in rigid cognitive styles and authoritarian ideologies), and important predictors of reconciliation (i.e., intergroup emotions), we aimed to contribute to a more comprehensive theoretical framework for the analysis of intergroup relations. We recruited one Flemish ('N' = 310) and one Walloon ('N' = 365) undergraduate students sample to test the proposed model. Structural equation analyses with maximum likelihood estimation were conducted using the Lavaan package. In both samples, similar patterns were found. More in particular, the need for cognitive closure appeared to be the basic predictor of right-wing attitudes (i.e., right-wing authoritarianism and social dominance orientation) and essentialist thinking, which were then associated with less outgroup empathy and trust, and more outgroup anger. Furthermore, outgroup trust and empathy were positively related to reconciliation. Interestingly, some differences between the Flemish and Walloon sample were found, such as the direct effects of need for closure and social dominance orientation in the first sample, and the non-significant effects of essentialism in the latter sample. Considering the ongoing public and political debate about the linguistic conflict in Belgium, these findings shed a new light on how individual differences relate to specific outgroup emotions, and how these are associated with important intergroup outcomes in the face of intergroup conflict

From one-class to two-class classification by incorporating expert knowledge : novelty detection in human behaviour

One-class classification is the standard procedure for novelty detection. Novelty detection aims to identify observations that deviate from a determined normal behaviour. Only instances of one class are known, whereas so called novelties are unlabelled. Traditional novelty detection applies methods from the field of outlier detection. These standard one-class classification approaches have limited performance in many real business cases. The traditional techniques are mainly developed for industrial problems such as machine condition monitoring. When applying these to human behaviour, the performance drops significantly. This paper proposes a method that improves existing approaches by creating semi-synthetic novelties in order to have labelled data for the two classes. Expert knowledge is incorporated in the initial phase of this data generation process. The method was deployed on a real-life test case where the goal was to detect fraudulent subscriptions to a telecom family plan. This research demonstrates that the two-class expert model outperforms a one-class model on the semi-synthetic dataset. In a next step the model was validated on a real dataset. A fraud detection team of the company manually checked the top predicted novelties. The results show that incorporating expert knowledge to transform a one-class problem into a two-class problem is a valuable method

Synthetic data generator for electric vehicle charging sessions : modeling and evaluation using real-world data

Electric vehicle (EV) charging stations have become prominent in electricity grids in the past few years. Their increased penetration introduces both challenges and opportunities; they contribute to increased load, but also offer flexibility potential, e.g., in deferring the load in time. To analyze such scenarios, realistic EV data are required, which are hard to come by. Therefore, in this article we define a synthetic data generator (SDG) for EV charging sessions based on a large real-world dataset. Arrival times of EVs are modeled assuming that the inter-arrival times of EVs follow an exponential distribution. Connection time for EVs is dependent on the arrival time of EV, and can be described using a conditional probability distribution. This distribution is estimated using Gaussian mixture models, and departure times can calculated by sampling connection times for EV arrivals from this distribution. Our SDG is based on a novel method for the temporal modeling of EV sessions, and jointly models the arrival and departure times of EVs for a large number of charging stations. Our SDG was trained using real-world EV sessions, and used to generate synthetic samples of session data, which were statistically indistinguishable from the real-world data. We provide both (i) source code to train SDG models from new data, and (ii) trained models that reflect real-world datasets

Bayesian lasso binary quantile regression

In this paper, a Bayesian hierarchical model for variable selection and estimation in the context of binary quantile regression is proposed. Existing approaches to variable selection in a binary classification context are sensitive to outliers, heteroskedasticity or other anomalies of the latent response. The method proposed in this study overcomes these problems in an attractive and straightforward way. A Laplace likelihood and Laplace priors for the regression parameters are proposed and estimated with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The resulting model is equivalent to the frequentist lasso procedure. A conceptional result is that by doing so, the binary regression model is moved from a Gaussian to a full Laplacian framework without sacrificing much computational efficiency. In addition, an efficient Gibbs sampler to estimate the model parameters is proposed that is superior to the Metropolis algorithm that is used in previous studies on Bayesian binary quantile regression. Both the simulation studies and the real data analysis indicate that the proposed method performs well in comparison to the other methods. Moreover, as the base model is binary quantile regression, a much more detailed insight in the effects of the covariates is provided by the approach. An implementation of the lasso procedure for binary quantile regression models is available in the R-package bayesQR