Governments, Civilians, and the Evolution of Insurgency: Modeling the Early Dynamics of Insurgencies

This paper models the early dynamics of insurgency using an agent-based computer simulation of civilians, insurgents, and soldiers. In the simulation, insurgents choose to attack government forces, which then strike back. Such government counterattacks may result in the capture or killing of insurgents, may make nearby civilians afraid to become insurgents, but may also increase the anger of surrounding civilians if there is significant collateral damage. If civilians become angry enough, they become new insurgents. I simulate the dynamics of these interactions, focusing on the effectiveness of government forces at capturing insurgents vs. their accuracy in avoiding collateral damage. The simulations suggest that accuracy (avoidance of collateral damage) is more important for the long-term defeat of insurgency than is effectiveness at capturing insurgents in any given counterattack. There also may be a critical 'tipping point' for accuracy below which the length of insurgencies increases dramatically. The dynamics of how insurgencies grow or decline in response to various combinations of government accuracy and effectiveness illustrate the tradeoffs faced by governments in dealing with the early stages of an insurgency.Agent Based Models, Insurgency, Dynamics, Civil War

Entanglement of a Pair of Quantum Bits

The ``entanglement of formation'' of a mixed state of a bipartite quantum system can be defined in terms of the number of pure singlets needed to create the state with no further transfer of quantum information. We find an exact formula for the entanglement of formation for all mixed states of two qubits having no more than two non-zero eigenvalues, and we report evidence suggesting that the formula is valid for all states of this system.Comment: 10 page

Public Performance Metrics: Driving Physician Motivation and Performance

Introduction: As providers transition from “fee-for-service” to “pay-for-performance” models, focus has shifted to improving performance. This trend extends to the emergency department (ED) where visits continue to increase across the United States. Our objective was to determine whether displaying public performance metrics of physician triage data could drive intangible motivators and improve triage performance in the ED.Methods: This is a single institution, time-series performance study on a physician-in-triage system. Individual physician baseline metrics—number of patients triaged and dispositioned per shift—were obtained and prominently displayed with identifiable labels during each quarterly physician group meeting. Physicians were informed that metrics would be collected and displayed quarterly and that there would be no bonuses, punishments, or required training; physicians were essentially free to do as they wished. It was made explicit that the goal was to increase the number triaged, and while the number dispositioned would also be displayed, it would not be a focus, thereby acting as this study’s control. At the end of one year, we analyzed metrics.Results: The group’s average number of patients triaged per shift were as follows: Q1-29.2; Q2-31.9; Q3-34.4; Q4-36.5 (Q1 vs Q4, p < 0.00001). The average numbers of patients dispositioned per shift were Q1-16.4; Q2-17.8; Q3-16.9; Q4-15.3 (Q1 vs Q4, p = 0.14). The top 25% of Q1 performers increased their average numbers triaged from Q1-36.5 to Q4-40.3 (ie, a statistically insignificant increase of 3.8 patients per shift [p = 0.07]). The bottom 25% of Q1 performers, on the other hand, increased their averages from Q1-22.4 to Q4-34.5 (ie, a statistically significant increase of 12.2 patients per shift [p = 0.0013]).Conclusion: Public performance metrics can drive intangible motivators (eg, purpose, mastery, and peer pressure), which can be an effective, low-cost strategy to improve individual performance, achieve institutional goals, and thrive in the pay-for-performance era

What have we already learned from the CMB?

The COBE satellite, and the DMR experiment in particular, was extraordinarily successful. However, the DMR results were announced about 7 years ago, during which time a great deal more has been learned about anisotropies in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). The CMB experiments currently being designed and built, including long-duration balloons, interferometers, and two space missions, promise to address several fundamental cosmological issues. We present our evaluation of what we already know, what we are beginning to learn now, and what the future may bring.Comment: 20 pages, 3 figures. Changes to match version accepted by PAS

Microlensing Characterization of Wide-Separation Planets

With their excellent photometric precision and dramatic increase in monitoring frequency, future microlensing survey experiments are expected to be sensitive to very short time-scale, isolated events caused by free-floating and wide-separation planets with mass as low as a few lunar masses. We estimate the probability of measuring the Einstein radius \theta_E for bound and free-floating planets. We carry out detailed simulations of the planetary events expected in next-generation surveys and estimate the resulting uncertainty in \theta_E for these events. We show that, for main-sequence sources and Jupiter-mass planets, the caustic structure of wide-separation planets with projected separations of < 20 AU substantially increases the probability of measuring the dimensionless source size and thus determining \theta_E compared to the case of unbound planets. In this limit where the source is much smaller than the caustic, the effective cross-section to measure \theta_E to 10% is ~25% larger than the full width of the caustic. Measurement of the lens parallax is possible for low-mass planetary events by combined observations from the ground and a satellite located in an L2 orbit; this would complete the mass measurements for such wide-separation planets. Finally, short-duration events caused by bound planets can be routinely distinguished from those caused by free-floating planets for planet-star separations < 20 AU from either the deviations due to the planetary caustic or (more often) the low-amplitude bump from the magnification due to the parent star.Comment: 10 pages including 7 figures. ApJ, in pres

Induced CMB quadrupole from pointing offsets

Recent claims in the literature have suggested that the {\it WMAP} quadrupole is not primordial in origin, and arises from an aliasing of the much larger dipole field because of incorrect satellite pointing. We attempt to reproduce this result and delineate the key physics leading to the effect. We find that, even if real, the induced quadrupole would be smaller than claimed. We discuss reasons why the {\it WMAP} data are unlikely to suffer from this particular systematic effect, including the implications for observations of point sources. Given this evidence against the reality of the effect, the similarity between the pointing-offset-induced signal and the actual quadrupole then appears to be quite puzzling. However, we find that the effect arises from a convolution between the gradient of the dipole field and anisotropic coverage of the scan direction at each pixel. There is something of a directional conspiracy here -- the dipole signal lies close to the Ecliptic Plane, and its direction, together with the {\it WMAP} scan strategy, results in a strong coupling to the $Y_{2,\,-1}$ component in Ecliptic co-ordinates. The dominant strength of this component in the measured quadrupole suggests that one should exercise increased caution in interpreting its estimated amplitude. The {\it Planck} satellite has a different scan strategy which does not so directly couple the dipole and quadrupole in this way and will soon provide an independent measurement.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

Classical Statistical Mechanics Approach to Multipartite Entanglement

We characterize the multipartite entanglement of a system of n qubits in terms of the distribution function of the bipartite purity over balanced bipartitions. We search for maximally multipartite entangled states, whose average purity is minimal, and recast this optimization problem into a problem of statistical mechanics, by introducing a cost function, a fictitious temperature and a partition function. By investigating the high-temperature expansion, we obtain the first three moments of the distribution. We find that the problem exhibits frustration.Comment: 38 pages, 10 figures, published versio

Observational Constraints on Open Inflation Models

We discuss observational constraints on models of open inflation. Current data from large-scale structure and the cosmic microwave background prefer models with blue spectra and/or Omega_0 >= 0.3--0.5. Models with minimal anisotropy at large angles are strongly preferred.Comment: 4 pages, RevTeX, with 2 postscript figures included. Second Figure correcte

A Century of Cosmology

In the century since Einstein's anno mirabilis of 1905, our concept of the Universe has expanded from Kapteyn's flattened disk of stars only 10 kpc across to an observed horizon about 30 Gpc across that is only a tiny fraction of an immensely large inflated bubble. The expansion of our knowledge about the Universe, both in the types of data and the sheer quantity of data, has been just as dramatic. This talk will summarize this century of progress and our current understanding of the cosmos.Comment: Talk presented at the "Relativistic Astrophysics and Cosmology - Einstein's Legacy" meeting in Munich, Nov 2005. Proceedings will be published in the Springer-Verlag "ESO Astrophysics Symposia" series. 10 pages Latex with 2 figure