Governments, Civilians, and the Evolution of Insurgency: Modeling the Early Dynamics of Insurgencies

This paper models the early dynamics of insurgency using an agent-based computer simulation of civilians, insurgents, and soldiers. In the simulation, insurgents choose to attack government forces, which then strike back. Such government counterattacks may result in the capture or killing of insurgents, may make nearby civilians afraid to become insurgents, but may also increase the anger of surrounding civilians if there is significant collateral damage. If civilians become angry enough, they become new insurgents. I simulate the dynamics of these interactions, focusing on the effectiveness of government forces at capturing insurgents vs. their accuracy in avoiding collateral damage. The simulations suggest that accuracy (avoidance of collateral damage) is more important for the long-term defeat of insurgency than is effectiveness at capturing insurgents in any given counterattack. There also may be a critical 'tipping point' for accuracy below which the length of insurgencies increases dramatically. The dynamics of how insurgencies grow or decline in response to various combinations of government accuracy and effectiveness illustrate the tradeoffs faced by governments in dealing with the early stages of an insurgency.Agent Based Models, Insurgency, Dynamics, Civil War

Violent and Non-Violent Strategies of Counterinsurgency

Responses to insurgency include both a large-scale societal reform directed at improving the lives of civilians and a direct military response with no additional programs to improve civilian welfare. In this paper, we as, what is the optimal combination of aid and military response from the viewpoint of the state? Using a computational model, we evaluate what mix of these two strategies helps the government defeat an insurgency more quickly. Our model yields that aid may boost a military strategy that avoids civilian casualties, but it may not compensate for a military strategy that targets civilians indiscriminately

Public Performance Metrics: Driving Physician Motivation and Performance

Introduction: As providers transition from “fee-for-service” to “pay-for-performance” models, focus has shifted to improving performance. This trend extends to the emergency department (ED) where visits continue to increase across the United States. Our objective was to determine whether displaying public performance metrics of physician triage data could drive intangible motivators and improve triage performance in the ED.Methods: This is a single institution, time-series performance study on a physician-in-triage system. Individual physician baseline metrics—number of patients triaged and dispositioned per shift—were obtained and prominently displayed with identifiable labels during each quarterly physician group meeting. Physicians were informed that metrics would be collected and displayed quarterly and that there would be no bonuses, punishments, or required training; physicians were essentially free to do as they wished. It was made explicit that the goal was to increase the number triaged, and while the number dispositioned would also be displayed, it would not be a focus, thereby acting as this study’s control. At the end of one year, we analyzed metrics.Results: The group’s average number of patients triaged per shift were as follows: Q1-29.2; Q2-31.9; Q3-34.4; Q4-36.5 (Q1 vs Q4, p < 0.00001). The average numbers of patients dispositioned per shift were Q1-16.4; Q2-17.8; Q3-16.9; Q4-15.3 (Q1 vs Q4, p = 0.14). The top 25% of Q1 performers increased their average numbers triaged from Q1-36.5 to Q4-40.3 (ie, a statistically insignificant increase of 3.8 patients per shift [p = 0.07]). The bottom 25% of Q1 performers, on the other hand, increased their averages from Q1-22.4 to Q4-34.5 (ie, a statistically significant increase of 12.2 patients per shift [p = 0.0013]).Conclusion: Public performance metrics can drive intangible motivators (eg, purpose, mastery, and peer pressure), which can be an effective, low-cost strategy to improve individual performance, achieve institutional goals, and thrive in the pay-for-performance era

Entanglement of a Pair of Quantum Bits

The ``entanglement of formation'' of a mixed state of a bipartite quantum system can be defined in terms of the number of pure singlets needed to create the state with no further transfer of quantum information. We find an exact formula for the entanglement of formation for all mixed states of two qubits having no more than two non-zero eigenvalues, and we report evidence suggesting that the formula is valid for all states of this system.Comment: 10 page

Hydrator Therapies for Chronic Bronchitis. Lessons from Cystic Fibrosis

Patients with the chronic bronchitis form of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and cystic fibrosis share similar clinical features, including mucus obstruction of airways and the development of chronic/recurrent airways infections that often manifest as disease exacerbations. There is growing evidence that these diseases may have parallels in disease pathogenesis as well, including cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator dysfunction, mucus dehydration, and defective mucociliary clearance. As progress is made in the development of therapies that target the basic defects that lead to cystic fibrosis lung disease, it is possible that similar approaches could also benefit patients with chronic bronchitis. A deeper understanding of how tobacco smoke and other triggers of chronic bronchitis actually lead to disease, and exploration of the concept that therapies that restore cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator function, mucus hydration, and/or mucociliary clearance may benefit patients with chronic bronchitis, hold the prospect of significant progress in treating this prevalent disease

Microlensing Characterization of Wide-Separation Planets

With their excellent photometric precision and dramatic increase in monitoring frequency, future microlensing survey experiments are expected to be sensitive to very short time-scale, isolated events caused by free-floating and wide-separation planets with mass as low as a few lunar masses. We estimate the probability of measuring the Einstein radius \theta_E for bound and free-floating planets. We carry out detailed simulations of the planetary events expected in next-generation surveys and estimate the resulting uncertainty in \theta_E for these events. We show that, for main-sequence sources and Jupiter-mass planets, the caustic structure of wide-separation planets with projected separations of < 20 AU substantially increases the probability of measuring the dimensionless source size and thus determining \theta_E compared to the case of unbound planets. In this limit where the source is much smaller than the caustic, the effective cross-section to measure \theta_E to 10% is ~25% larger than the full width of the caustic. Measurement of the lens parallax is possible for low-mass planetary events by combined observations from the ground and a satellite located in an L2 orbit; this would complete the mass measurements for such wide-separation planets. Finally, short-duration events caused by bound planets can be routinely distinguished from those caused by free-floating planets for planet-star separations < 20 AU from either the deviations due to the planetary caustic or (more often) the low-amplitude bump from the magnification due to the parent star.Comment: 10 pages including 7 figures. ApJ, in pres

What have we already learned from the CMB?

The COBE satellite, and the DMR experiment in particular, was extraordinarily successful. However, the DMR results were announced about 7 years ago, during which time a great deal more has been learned about anisotropies in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). The CMB experiments currently being designed and built, including long-duration balloons, interferometers, and two space missions, promise to address several fundamental cosmological issues. We present our evaluation of what we already know, what we are beginning to learn now, and what the future may bring.Comment: 20 pages, 3 figures. Changes to match version accepted by PAS

A Remark on the Estimation of Angular Power Spectra in the Presence of Foregrounds

It is common practice to estimate the errors on the angular power spectrum which could be obtained by an experiment with a given angular resolution and noise level. Several authors have also addressed the question of foreground subtraction using multi-frequency observations. In such observations the angular resolution of the different frequency channels is rarely the same. In this report we point out how the ``effective'' beam size and noise level change with ell in this case, and give an expression for the error on the angular power spectrum as a function of ell.Comment: 3 pages, no figures, to appear in Phys Rev