Job Polarization in the U.S.: A Reassessment of the Evidence from the 1980s and 1990s

In this paper, we review the evidence for job polarization in the U.S. and provide a description of the occupational employment changes that characterized the U.S. labor market during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. We begin by replicating the existing job polarization trends, which are produced using a modified occupational coding scheme intended to make occupational categories comparable over time. Using two alternative procedures to obtain consistent occupational codes across decades, we show that the finding that jobs polarized in the 1990s relative to the 1980s no longer holds. Instead, we find that occupational employment shifts were very similar during the two decades. In addition, we demonstrate that the method used to rank occupations according to their skill content has a substantial impact on the employment growth in low-skill job categories. Finally, using an additional occupational crosswalk that allows us to obtain consistent occupational categories from 1970 to 2002, we provide evidence in favor of a long-term trend towards employment growth in high-skill jobs and employment decline in some middle-skill jobs, but no sharp contrast between the 1980s and the 1990s. Our findings suggest that the evolution of the occupational employment structure and the divergent wage growth patterns observed during the 1980s and 1990s do not easily fit within the routinization story as usually told.Job Polarization, Occupational Employment, Employment Growth, Wage Inequality

Spill-Overs from Good Jobs

Does attracting or losing jobs in high paying sectors have important spill-over effects on wages in other sectors? The answer to this question is central to a proper assessment of many trade and industrial policies. In this paper, we explore this question by examining how predictable changes in industrial composition in favor of high paying sectors affect wage determination at the industry-city level. In particular, we use US Census data over the years 1970 to 2000 to quantify the relationship between changes in industry-specific city-level wages and changes in industrial composition. Our finding is that the spill-over (i.e., general equilibrium) effects associated with changes in the fraction of jobs in high paying sectors are very substantial and persistent. Our point estimates indicate that the total effect on average wages of a change in industrial composition that favors high paying sectors is about 3.5 times greater than that obtained from a commonly used composition-adjustment approach which neglects general equilibrium effects. We interpret our results as being most likely driven by a variant of the mechanism recently emphasized in the heterogenous firm literature whereby changes in competitive pressure cause a reallocation of employment toward the most efficient firms.

Financial spillovers from the US financial markets to the emerging markets during the subprime crisis: the example of Indian equity markets

This paper provides evidence of spillover effects from the Indian to the US financial markets. We use VAR and Kalman filter analysis to assess the influence of financial stress indicators like the LIBOR-OIS, CDS, the S&P 500 volatility and the exchange rate of the rupee against the Dollar on two indicators of financial stress in India, namely the illiquidity of stock indices and their volatility. We conduct an analysis bases on both daily and monthly frequency and use a database that consists of both aggregate and disaggregated indexes. Our results points to a signification contagion effect after the period following the Lehman Brothers collapse.Subprime crisis, Emerging Markets, VAR analysis, financial stress

Bayesian Cramér-Rao Lower Bound for Magnetic Field-Based Localization

In this paper, we show how to analyze the achievable position accuracy of magnetic localization based on Bayesian Cramér-Rao lower bounds and how to account for deterministic inputs in the bound. The derivation of the bound requires an analytical model, e.g., a map or database, that links the position that is to be estimated to the corresponding magnetic field value. Unfortunately, finding an analytical model from the laws of physics is not feasible due to the complexity of the involved differential equations and the required knowledge about the environment. In this paper, we therefore use a Gaussian process (GP) that approximates the true analytical model based on training data. The GP ensures a smooth, differentiable likelihood and allows a strict Bayesian treatment of the estimation problem. Based on a novel set of measurements recorded in an indoor environment, the bound is evaluated for different sensor heights and is compared to the mean squared error of a particle filter. Furthermore, the bound is calculated for the case when only the magnetic magnitude is used for positioning and the case when the whole vector field is considered. For both cases, the resulting position bound is below 10cm indicating an high potential accuracy of magnetic localization

Bayesian Cramér-Rao Lower Bound for Magnetic Field-based Localization

In this paper, we show how to analyze the achievable position accuracy of magnetic localization based on Bayesian Cramér-Rao lower bounds and how to account for deterministic inputs in the bound. The derivation of the bound requires an analytical model, e.g., a map or database, that links the position that is to be estimated to the corresponding magnetic field value. Unfortunately, finding an analytical model from the laws of physics is not feasible due to the complexity of the involved differential equations and the required knowledge about the environment. In this paper, we therefore use a Gaussian process (GP) that approximates the true analytical model based on training data. The GP ensures a smooth, differentiable likelihood and allows a strict Bayesian treatment of the estimation problem. Based on a novel set of measurements recorded in an indoor environment, the bound is evaluated for different sensor heights and is compared to the mean squared error of a particle filter. Furthermore, the bound is calculated for the case when only the magnetic magnitude is used for positioning and the case when the whole vector field is considered. For both cases, the resulting position bound is below 10 cm indicating an high potential accuracy of magnetic localization

Techno-fixing non-compliance - Geoengineering, ideal theory and residual responsibility

After years of missing the agreed upon goals for carbon reduction, we might conclude that global climate policies set infeasible standards to halt climate change. The widespread non-compliance of many signees with frameworks such as the Paris Agreement indicates that these frameworks were too optimistic regarding the signees’ motivation to act. One of the suggested ways out of this impasse, is geoengineering, which is seen as a “techno-fix” of the non-compliance problem, relieving signees and other actors of some, or most, of their mitigation duties. This paper scrutinizes different approaches towards climate mitigation that focus on behavioral change or on technological solutions. We argue that these different approaches do not originate from categorically different theories of climate justice. Indeed, seemingly realistic and seemingly idealistic proposals do not disagree on the substance of climate justice, but about what is to be considered feasible. Furthermore, by applying this dialectic lens on ideal vs. non-ideal theorizing in the context of climate justice, we show that (backward-looking) residual responsibility is an overlooked aspect of geoengineering as a (forward-looking) non-ideal approach to achieve climate justice. We will outline three possible consequences of this moral residue: 1) Residual responsibility can provide grounds to demand compensation, 2) it can constitute other forward-looking responsibilities (e.g., the maintenance of geoengineering technologies) and 3) it provides a reason to employ other techno-fixes equal in effectiveness and risks that do not sidestep the problem of non-compliance.Ethics & Philosophy of Technolog