Credit Derivatives and Sovereign Debt Crises

Credit derivatives allow for buying protection on corporate debt, but also on sovereign debt. In this paper we examine the implications for sovereign debt crises. We show that the availability of credit protection lowers ex-ante debtor moral hazard by allowing a bondholder to improve his bargaining position in negotiations with the sovereign, thus forcing the sovereign to internalize more of the costs of a crisis. When bondholders use credit protection strategically, we additionally find that credit derivatives do not hinder an efficient resolution of crises. Crisis resolution may even be improved by facilitating conditionality. When protection is not chosen strategically, however, credit protection may also be detrimental to crisis resolution by making restructuring more difficult. In either case we identify a role for government policy as bondholders' choice of protection is not necessarily socially efficient.credit derivatives, sovereign debt crisis, moral hazard

Credit derivatives and sovereign debt

We study the introduction of credit protection on sovereign debt. We find that such protection reduces debtor moral hazard by allowing a bonghokder to improve his position in negotiations with the sovereign. Moreover, equilibrium credit protection does not reduce the efficiency of crisis resolution. We even identify situations where protection facilitates conditionality in crisis resolution. Neverlesless, we show that a bondholder's choice of protection is not always socially optimal. Crisis resolution can then be improved through increasing protection

Bank behaviour with access to credit risk transfer markets

One of the most important recent innovations in financial markets has been the development of credit derivative products that allow banks to more actively manage their credit portfolios than ever before. We analyse the effect that access to these markets has had on the lending behaviour of a sample of banks, using a sample of banks that have not accessed these markets as a control group. We find that banks that adopt advanced credit risk management techniques (proxied by the issuance of at least one collateralized loan obligation) experience a permanent increase in their target loan levels of around 50%. Partial adjustment to this target, however, means that the impact on actual loan levels is spread over several years. Our findings confirm the general efficiency-enhancing implications of new risk management techniques in a world with frictions suggested in the theoretical literature.credit derivatives; bank loans; moral hazard

Credit where credit is due: research parasites and tackling misconceptions about academic data sharing

Benedikt Fecher and Gert G. Wagner look at a recent editorial which faced considerable criticism for typecasting researchers who use or build on previous datasets as “research parasites”. They argue that the authors appear to miss the point, not only of data sharing, but of scientific research more broadly. But as problematic as the editorial may be, it points to a wider issue for the scientific community, which is adequate mechanisms for credit and contribution. We could be doing more to provide proper recognition for researchers’ data sharing, data production and data curation efforts

Flipping journals to open: Rethinking publishing infrastructure in light of Lingua/Glossa case

The resignation of the editorial board of an Elsevier-owned linguistics journal and its open access reorganization could get the ball rolling for other journals to follow suit. Benedikt Fecher and Gert Wagner argue this case is a reminder that open access means more than just providing access to an article; it means rethinking the whole process of publishing. Open access also raises important questions about who owns the critical information infrastructure for online publishing

Flipping journals to open: Rethinking publishing infrastructure

The resignation of the editorial board of an Elsevier-owned linguistics journal and its open access reorganization could get the ball rolling for other journals to follow suit. This case is a reminder that open access means more than just providing access to an article; it means rethinking the whole process of publishing. Open access also raises important questions about who owns the critical information infrastructure for online publishing

Quantitative water T2 relaxometry in the early detection of neuromuscular diseases: a retrospective biopsy-controlled analysis.

OBJECTIVES To assess quantitative water T2 relaxometry for the early detection of neuromuscular diseases (NMDs) in comparison to standard qualitative MR imaging in a clinical setting. METHODS This retrospective study included 83 patients with suspected NMD who underwent multiparametric MRI at 3 T with a subsequent muscle biopsy between 2015 and 2019. Qualitative T1-weighted and T2-TIRM images were graded by two neuroradiologists to be either pathological or normal. Mean and median water T2 relaxation times (water T2) were obtained from manually drawn volumes of interests in biopsied muscle from multi-echo sequence. Histopathologic pattern of corresponding muscle biopsies was used as a reference. RESULTS In 34 patients, the T1-weighted images showed clear pathological alternations indicating late-stage fatty infiltration in NMDs. In the remaining 49 patients without late-stage changes, T2-TIRM grading achieved a sensitivity of 56.4%, and mean and median water T2 a sensitivity of 87.2% and 97.4% to detect early-stage NMDs. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.682, 0.715, and 0.803 for T2-TIRM, mean water T2, and median water T2, respectively. Median water T2 ranged between 36 and 42 ms depending on histopathologic pattern. CONCLUSIONS Quantitative water T2 relaxometry had a significantly higher sensitivity in detecting muscle abnormalities than subjective grading of T2-TIRM, prior to late-stage fatty infiltration signal alternations in T1-weighted images. Normal-appearing T2-TIRM does not rule out early-stage NMDs. Our findings suggest considering water T2 relaxometry complementary to T2-TIRM for early detection of NMDs in clinical diagnostic routine. KEY POINTS • Quantitative water T2 relaxometry is more sensitive than subjective assessment of fat-suppressed T2-weighted images for the early detection of neuromuscular diseases, prior to late-stage fatty infiltration signal alternations in T1-weighted images. • Normal-appearing muscles in fat-suppressed T2-weighted images do not rule out early-stage neuromuscular diseases. • Quantitative water T2 relaxometry should be considered complementary to subjectively rated fat-suppressed T2-weighted images in clinical practice

Stellenwert der primären Radiochemotherapie bei Patienten mit kleinzelligem Bronchialkarzinom im Stadium limited disease

Die Kuration des LD-SCLC stellt wegen seines aggressiven Wachstumsverhaltens mit früher Metastasierung und hoher Lokalrezidivrate weiterhin eine Herausforderung dar. Unsere retrospektive Analyse untersuchte den Stellenwert der RCT im Stadium LD-SCLC anhand des Vergleiches einer hyperfraktioniert-akzelerierten mit einer normofraktionierten RCT, die hinsichtlich Effektivität und Verträglichkeit kontrovers diskutiert werden. Ziel unserer Studie war die Ermittlung der Therapieeffektivität gemessen an Gesamtüberleben, rezidivfreiem ÜL inklusive Rückfallmuster (lokal/systemisch, im/außerhalb RT-Feld), sowie die Bestimmung der Therapieverträglichkeit (Früh- und Spätnebenwirkungen) bei dem uns vorliegenden monozentrischem Patientenkollektiv (n= 70 Patienten). Ein besonderer Fokus lag auf der Suche nach möglichen Einflussfaktoren für das Auftreten von Rezidiven sowie nach Prognosefaktoren für das Gesamtüberleben. Nach einem medianen Follow-up von 9.3 Jahren lag das 1-,2-,5-Jahres ÜL/EFS bei 66%/40%/20% bzw. 36%/29%/20%. Als Akuttoxizitäten Grad 3/4 wurden Hämatotoxizität (36%) und Ösophagitis (7%) ermittelt. Schwere Spättoxizitäten traten nicht auf. Bei 17/70 Patienten (24%) wurde eine komplette Remission und bei 49/70 Patienten (70%) eine Teilremission erreicht. Ein Krankheitsrückfall (n= 10 Relapse; n= 39 Progress) wurde bei 49/70 Patienten (70%) nachgewiesen. Dieser lag in der Mehrzahl der Fälle (63%) außerhalb des Bestrahlungsfeldes. Bei 13 Patienten lag ein kombiniertes Rezidiv (in-field/ ex-field) und bei 5 Patienten (n= 1: Relapse, n= 4: Progress) ein isoliertes Lokalrezidiv vor. In-field-Rezidive (14/18 aller in-field-Rezidive und 4/5 ausschließliche in-field-Rezidive) lagen im GTV. Im Rahmen multivariater Analysen wurden ECOG, N-Stadium und Anwendung einer hyperfraktioniert-akzelerierten RT mit cisplatinhaltiger Chx als unabhängige prognostische Faktoren für das ÜL/EFS identifiziert. Durch standardisiertes Staging (PET-CT, cMRT) und Verkleinerung der RTZielvolumina mit Verzicht auf eine RT adjuvanter Lymphabflussgebiete bei gleichzeitiger Dosiserhöhung im GTV könnten die Therapieergebnisse verbessert werden. Inwiefern die zusätzliche Anwendung einer Immuntherapie das hohe Fernmetastasierungsrisiko senken kann, wird aktuell untersucht

Rather than simply moving from “paying to read” to “paying to publish”, it’s time for a European Open Access Platform

Open access is here to stay. Massive support from academic institutions and research funders makes it the likeliest future scenario for scholarly publications, leaving only the question of how the transition is made. Benedikt Fecher, Sascha Friesike, Isabella Peters and Gert G. Wagner argue that current policy efforts do not go far enough. Scholarly publishing in a digital age would benefit if European research infrastructure providers pooled their collective efforts into a public publication infrastructure. This post makes the case for a European Open Access Platform