Uncharted territory - environment and population beyond six billion

When historians in the far distant future look back upon the tumultuous twentieth century, they will likely judge the most outstanding feature to be the extraordinary increase in human numbers that has occurred during this relatively short time period. It took the entire history of humanity – tens of thousands of years – for the world’s population to reach one billion, which is now estimated to have occurred around 1804. It was more than a century later that the second billion was reached. But it took only 12 years – from 1987 to 1999 --. for the most recent billion, the sixth, to be added. The world has never seen anything like the steep population growth of the twentieth century, with most of it concentrated during the last fifty years.

An Annotated guide to flute and guitar music

This document will contain an annotated bibliography of all of the flute and guitar music that is currently available. The annotations, organized by level of difficulty, will include title, composer, arranger, publisher, date of publication, level of difficulty, description of difficulties, and description of the piece. The pieces will be located and obtained by diverse sources, including libraries, various collections, and catalog listings. The study will be completed after careful examination of each piece listed in the document. The end result will be a publishable resource for both flutists and guitarists of all levels

Responses of fruit-feeding butterflies to selective logging in Sabah, Borneo

This study investigated the impacts of selective logging on tropical butterflies in lowland dipterocarp rainforest of Sabah, Malaysia (Borneo). Fruit-baited traps were used to survey butterflies in unlogged forest and forest that had been selectively logged 10 - 12 years previously in 1988 and 1989. The study focused on butterflies in the sub-families Satyrinae, Nymphalinae, Morphinae and Charaxinae (Nymphalidae). Traps were set up along four transects on existing paths and trails in unlogged forest (two transects, total length 4 km) and logged forest (two transects; total length 4 km). Traps were hung 1-2 m from the ground at 100 m intervals along transects (total of 80 traps). Traps were operated for 12 days each month. A total of 3996 adult butterflies was recorded from 63 species over a period of one year (October 1999 - September 2000). Most of the butterfly species that were present in unlogged forest were also present in logged forest. There was little difference between habitats in numbers of individuals or numbers of species recorded in Shannon-Wiener, Simpson's or Margalef's diversity indices. These results show that selective logging had little effect on butterfly species diversity 10 — 12 years after logging. There was, however, a significant difference among transects, and transects in logged forest had both lowest and highest species diversity (Shannon-Wiener). These results may be due to differences between transects in the intensity of logging. There was no evidence that selective logging resulted in the loss of butterfly species with more restricted geographical distributions. Dispersal and longevity were investigated in several of the more abundant species. Dispersal and longevity distributions fitted negative exponential functions showing that the study species were dispersing randomly and had a constant rate of survival over time. Dispersal and longevity did not differ between habitats or sexes but did differ between species in relation to body size and subfamily. The maximum distance moved by an individual in this study was 4670 m and the maximum lifespan was 175 days (B. dunya in both cases)

Contrasting approaches: the ozone layer, climate change, and resolving the Kyoto dilemma

In December 1997, representatives of 160 governments agreed in Kyoto on a protocol to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It was hoped that the 'Kyoto Protocol' would be a major step forward to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases. Before long, however, doubts emerged on whether the treaty was implementable. Now, nearly two years later, only 19 small nations have ratified the treaty. None were significant emitters of greenhouse gases. A decade earlier, 24 countries had signed the 'Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer'. This treaty was soon ratified by all of the significant producer and consumer nations, and came into force within only 15 months, has now been ratified by 170 countries, and has entered the annals of diplomacy as a landmark of international cooperation. The unexpected success of the 'Montreal Protocol' was viewed as an encouraging sign that the world would be able to cooperate in addressing such other environmental threats as climate change and diminishing biological diversity. However, negotiations over climate change, from their very inception in 1991, have been marked by persistent disarray on the necessity and feasibility of strong early measures to remodel the world's energy structure. Proponents of decisive action became frustrated by the continuing hesitancy on the diplomatic front - a lack of zeal that was manifested, ironically, by many of the same nations that have been leaders on ozone and other environmental issues, notably Australia, Canada and the United States. (HH)Das 'Kyoto-Protokoll' zur Klimarahmenkonvention wurde nach seiner Verabschiedung im Dezember 1997 von vielen als Meilenstein auf dem Weg zu einer effektiven, international koordinierten Klimapolitik verstanden. Inzwischen mehren sich die Stimmen, daß dieses Protokoll nicht implementiert werden könnte - was dann? Bisher (Stand: Dezember 1999) haben erst 19 Staaten das 'Kyoto-Protokoll' ratifiziert, darunter nicht einer der Großemittenten von Treibhausgasen. Das 'Montrealer Protokoll' zum Schutz der Ozonschicht war dagegen sehr erfolgreich, es wurde in kürzester Zeit ratifiziert. In dieser Analyse werden die Umsetzungsbedingungen dieser beiden Verträge in einen Zusammenhang gestellt und Folgerungen daraus gezogen. Wie wäre das 'Kyoto-Protokoll' noch zu retten - und was wären die Alternativen, wenn dies nicht gelingt? (HH

Uncharted territory - environment and population beyond six billion

"That human populations can exert strains upon their natural surrounding is nothing new. However, from the dawn of history until about thirty years ago, the impacts of human activities were primarily localized. Early regional civilizations – Mesopotamia in the Near East, Mohenjo Daro in Southwest Asia, the Mayans of Central America, possibly the Anasazi in the southwest of what is now the United States – collapsed due to a likely combination of overpopulation and scarcity or depletion of arable land and water supply. In some places, archaeologists have found evidence of adverse environmental effects caused by deforestation and by gradual salinization of irrigated land. The final blow may have been a regional climate change: a succession of unusual dry years, probably ascribed by local spiritual leaders to angry or capricious gods. Many centuries before the Aswan High Dam, Herodotus wrote of salinization in the Nile Delta. Much later, rapid industrialization in Europe and North America was accompanied by severe local pollution of air and water." (excerpt)"Im Verlaufe dieses Jahrhunderts wird sich die Weltbevölkerung irgendwo in der Größenordnung zwischen acht und zwölf Milliarden Menschen einpendeln. Viele Analytiker sehen angesichts dieser Dynamik die Tragfähigkeit des ökologischen Systems Erde überschritten. Die Ansprüche an die Waldbestände, die Wasservorräte, das Klimasystem sind jedenfalls enorm, wie in diesem Beitrag im Detail festgestellt wird. Ob es jedoch zur erfolgreichen Umsetzung der auf der Bevölkerungskonferenz von 1994 in Kairo beschlossenen Maßnahmen und Ziele (Konzept der reproductive health) kommen wird, ist trotz dieser bedrohlichen Trends fraglich. Der Autor geht daher der Frage nach, unter welchen Bedingungen die Kairo-Ziele trotz aller gegenteiligen Evidenz doch noch realisiert werden könnten." (Autorenreferat