How to evaluate the investment and management economic sustainability for different photovoltaic plant installations

Come valutare la sostenibilit\ue0 economica degli investimenti in impianti fotovoltaici e della loro gestion

Non-core services efficiency improvement: How to find resources in the healthcare system

In countries where the health service is run by national and regional governments, costs have risen dramatically since the early 2000s. The consequently smaller contributions granted to hospital facilities have forced managers to implement cost-reduction strategies. The Authors' purpose is to avoid strategies which interfere with care processes such as linear cuts (fewer services to patients) and standard cost (a policy of equalizing the cost of purchasing goods and services). A health care system is strongly similar, in an operative way, to a production system. For this reason, the Authors decide to face the efficiency improvement of this kind of system with the same approach they generally use for production systems. Through the construction of simulation models (Discrete Event Simulation, System Dynamics) are, therefore, obtained quantitative data on the basis of which, in agreement with the Management, the corresponding improvement actions are made. The proposed approach allows Managers, at zero cost and without interfering with care processes, the recovery of significant resources as demonstrated in the test case application. Through the System efficiency improvement proposed by the Authors it is possible to maintain a high level of care even in the presence of budget reductions. Strong savings for each system where the methodology is applied and for the whole Italian system

Stochastic techno-economic assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation and the Response Surface Methodology: The case of an innovative linear Fresnel CSP (concentrated solar power) system

Combining technological solutions with investment profitability is a critical aspect in designing both traditional and innovative renewable power plants. Often, the introduction of new advanced-design solutions, although technically interesting, does not generate adequate revenue to justify their utilization. In this study, an innovative methodology is developed that aims to satisfy both targets. On the one hand, considering all of the feasible plant configurations, it allows the analysis of the investment in a stochastic regime using the Monte Carlo method. On the other hand, the impact of every technical solution on the economic performance indicators can be measured by using regression meta-models built according to the theory of Response Surface Methodology. This approach enables the design of a plant configuration that generates the best economic return over the entire life cycle of the plant. This paper illustrates an application of the proposed methodology to the evaluation of design solutions using an innovative linear Fresnel Concentrated Solar Power system

A new stochastic multi source approach to improve the accuracy of the sales forecasts

Purpose: The aim of this paper is to suggest a new approach to the problem of sales forecasting for improving forecast accuracy. The proposed method is capable of combining, by means of appropriate weights, both the responses supplied by the best-performing conventional algorithms, which base their output on historical data, and the insights of company\u2019s forecasters which should take account future events that are impossible to predict with traditional mathematical methods. Design/methodology/approach: The authors propose a six-step methodology using multiple forecasting sources. Each of these forecasts, to consider the uncertainty of the variables involved, is expressed in the form of suitable probability density function. A proper use of the Monte Carlo Simulation allows obtaining the best fit among these different sources and to obtain a value of forecast accompanied by a probability of error known a priori. Findings: The proposed approach allows the company\u2019s demand forecasters to provide timely response to market dynamics and make a choice of weights, gradually ever more accurate, triggering a continuous process of forecast improvement. The application on a real business case proves the validity and the practical utilization of the methodology. Originality/value: Forecast definition is normally entrusted to the company\u2019s demand forecasters who often may radically modify the information suggested by the conventional prediction algorithms or, contrarily, can be too influenced by their output. This issue is the origin of the methodological approach proposed that aims to improve the forecast accuracy merging, with appropriate weights and taking into account the stochasticity involved, the outputs of sales forecast algorithms with the contributions of the company\u2019s forecasters

A design of experiments/response surface methodology approach to study the economic sustainability of a 1 MWe photovoltaic plant

none4noTo obtain a rigorous investment analysis for photovoltaic power generation plants, a dynamic Business Plan has been studied. It allows us to determine, in real time, the investment parameters (Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, Return on Investment, etc) starting from the technical, economical, financial and positional data. The Business Plan provides, as output, the exact values of the parameters (dependent variables or objective functions) basing on the exact values of the input variables (independent variables). By suitably varying the independent variables it is possible to obtain a sensitivity analysis on the dependent variables due to which different evaluations about the investment in multiple pre-set scenarios can be obtained. On the other hand, by using the Business Plan as data creator and then applying the Response Surface Methodology techniques, it has been possible to obtain mathematical functions (regression meta-models) which are able to explain the link among dependent and independent variables in the definition range. This approach allows to generate a sort of k dimensional state equation of order n for the different investigated economic parameters. These equations provide, in the chosen dimensional space (two or three-dimensional), a view of the dependent variable behaviour (e.g. Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return) while changing one or two independent variables (e.g. government incentives, discount rate). The descriptive ability of this approach has a higher level in terms of quality and reliability than a traditional sensitivity analysis. In this paper, a case study about a 1 MWe photovoltaic plant located in Liguria (North-Italy) and a comparison with a similar plant located in Sicily (South-Italy) are also presented.Bendato, Ilaria; Cassettari, Lucia; Mosca, Marco; Mosca, RobertoBendato, Ilaria; Cassettari, Lucia; Mosca, Marco; Mosca, Robert