Emissivity retrievals with FORUM's end-to-end simulator: challenges and recommendations

Spectral emissivity is a key property of the Earth's surface, of which only very few measurements exist so far in the far-infrared (FIR) spectral region, even though recent work has shown that the FIR is important for accurate modelling of the global climate. The European Space Agency's 9th Earth Explorer, FORUM (Far-infrared Outgoing Radiation Understanding and Monitoring) will provide the first global spectrally resolved measurements of the Earth's top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) spectrum in the FIR. In clear-sky conditions with low water vapour content, these measurements will provide a unique opportunity to retrieve spectrally resolved FIR surface emissivity. In preparation for the FORUM mission with an expected launch in 2027, this study takes the first steps towards the development of an operational emissivity retrieval for FORUM by investigating the sensitivity of the emissivity product of a full spectrum optimal estimation retrieval method to different physical and operational parameters. The tool used for the sensitivity tests is the FORUM mission's end-to-end simulator. These tests show that the spectral emissivity of most surface types can be retrieved for dry scenes in the 350–600 cm−1 region, with an absolute uncertainty ranging from 0.005 to 0.01. In addition, the quality of the retrieval is quantified with respect to the precipitable water vapour content of the scene, and the uncertainty caused by the correlation of emissivity with surface temperature is investigated. Based on these investigations, a road map is recommended for the development of the operational emissivity product

The FORUM end-to-end simulator project: architecture and results

FORUM (Far-infrared Outgoing Radiation Understanding and Monitoring) will fly as the ninth ESA's Earth Explorer mission, and an end-to-end simulator (E2ES) has been developed as a support tool for the mission selection process and the subsequent development phases. The current status of the FORUM E2ES project is presented together with the characterization of the capabilities of a full physics retrieval code applied to FORUM data. We show how the instrument characteristics and the observed scene conditions impact on the spectrum measured by the instrument, accounting for the main sources of error related to the entire acquisition process, and the consequences on the retrieval algorithm. Both homogeneous and heterogeneous case studies are simulated in clear and cloudy conditions, validating the E2ES against appropriate well-established correlative codes. The performed tests show that the performance of the retrieval algorithm is compliant with the project requirements both in clear and cloudy conditions. The far-infrared (FIR) part of the FORUM spectrum is shown to be sensitive to surface emissivity, in dry atmospheric conditions, and to cirrus clouds, resulting in improved performance of the retrieval algorithm in these conditions. The retrieval errors increase with increasing the scene heterogeneity, both in terms of surface characteristics and in terms of fractional cloud cover of the scene

Vulnerable people, vulnerable resources? Exploring the relationship between people's vulnerability and the sustainability of community-managed natural resources

Participatory approaches to the management of common-pool resources (CPRs) are built on the premise that resource-users are dependent on the productivity of the resource and therefore have the incentive to act as resource stewards if empowered to do so. Yet many CPR users have only temporary interest in using the resources. Moreover, they are vulnerable to a range of stressors and risks unrelated to resource access and sustainability concerns. Both of these may undermine such incentives. Furthermore, discounting theory posits that high vulnerability shortens time horizons so that vulnerable CPR users might be expected to heavily discount future benefits from resource conservation. We present an ethnographic study carried out in two communities on Lake Victoria, Uganda, where fisher folk face a range of elevated risks to health and security. These immediate risks undermine participatory fishery management but this does not necessarily indicate inherently short time-horizons; for many, fishing and fish-trading are not perceived as a life-long occupation but as a means to generate capital for investment in other businesses. Thus, whether they are vulnerable or not, it cannot simply be assumed that current CPR users will have a long-term interest in participating in resource management. Incentivizing participation in CPR management for long-term sustainability may have to address both people’s wider vulnerabilities and aspirations

Neutral Cr and v in the Atmosphere of Ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-121 b

Ultra hot jupiters (UHJs), giant exoplanets with equilibrium temperatures above 2000 K, are ideal laboratories for studying metal compositions of planetary atmospheres. At these temperatures the thermal dissociation of metal-rich molecules into their constituent elements makes these atmospheres conducive for elemental characterisation. Several elements, mostly ionized metals, have been detected in UHJs recently using high resolution transit spectroscopy. Even though a number of neutral transition metals (e.g., Fe, Ti, V, Cr) are expected to be strong sources of optical/NUV opacity and, hence, influence radiative processes in the lower atmospheres of UHJs, only Fe I has been detected to date. We conduct a systematic search for atomic species in the UHJ WASP-121 b. Using theoretical models we present a metric to predict the atomic species likely to be detectable in such planets with high resolution transmission spectroscopy. We search for the predicted species in observations of WASP-121 b and report the first detections of neutral transition metals Cr I and V I in an exoplanet at 3.6 $\sigma$ and 4.5 $\sigma$, respectively. We confirm previous detections of Fe I and Fe II. Whereas Fe II was detected previously in the NUV, we detect it in the optical. We infer that the neutral elements Fe I, V I, and Cr I are present in the lower atmosphere, as predicted by thermochemical equilibrium, while Fe II is a result of photoionisation in the upper atmosphere. Our study highlights the rich chemical diversity of UHJs