Economic Growth and Longevity Risk with Adverse Selection

We study a closed economy featuring heterogeneous agents and exhibiting endogenous economic growth due to interfirm external effects. Individual agents differ in terms of their mortality profile. At birth, nature assigns a health status to each agent. Health type is private information and annuity firms can only observe an agent’s age. In the presence of longevity risk, agents want to annuitize their wealth conform the classic result by Yaari (1965). In the first-best case with perfect annuities, the market would feature a separating equilibrium (SE) in which each health type obtains an actuarially fair perfect insurance. In the SE all agents are savers throughout their lives. The informational asymmetry precludes the attainment of the first-best equilibrium, however, as healthy individuals have a strong incentive to misrepresent their type by claiming to be unhealthy. Using the equilibrium concept of Pauly (1974) and Abel (1986), we prove the existence of a second-best pooling equilibrium (PE) in which individuals of all types annuitize at a common pooling rate. As the unhealthy get close to their maximum attainable age, the pooling rate prompts such individuals to become net borrowers. But borrowing would reveal their health status, so the best the unhealthy can do is to impose a borrowing constraint on themselves during their autumn years. Using a plausibly calibrated version of the model we find that the growth- and welfare effects of PE versus SE are rather small, whilst those of PE versus no annuities at all (NAE) are rather large. An imperfect insurance is better than no insurance at all, both at the microeconomic and at the macroeconomic level.annuity markets, adverse selection, endogenous growth, overlapping generations, demography

The Tragedy of Annuitization

We construct a tractable discrete-time overlapping generations model of a closed economy and use it to study government redistribution of accidental bequests and private annuities in general equilibrium. Individuals face longevity risk as there is a positive probability of passing away before the retirement period. We find non-pathological cases where it is better for longrun welfare to waste accidental bequests than to give them to the elderly. Next we study the introduction of a perfectly competitive life insurance market offering actuarially fair annuities. There exists a tragedy of annuitization: although full annuitization of assets is privately optimal it is not socially beneficial due to adverse general equilibrium repercussions.Longevity risk, Risk sharing, Overlapping generations, Intergenerational transfers, Annuity markets

Enhancing the Australian National Health Survey Data for Use in a Microsimulation Model of Pharmaceutical Drug Usage and Cost

While static microsimulation models of the tax-transfer system are now available throughout the developed world, health microsimulation models are much rarer. This is, at least in part, due to the difficulties in creating adequate base micro-datasets upon which the microsimulation models can be constructed. In sharp contrast to tax-transfer modelling, no readily available microdata set typically contains all the health status, health service usage and socio-demographic information required for a sophisticated health microsimulation model. This paper describes three new techniques developed to overcome survey data limitations when constructing \'MediSim\', a microsimulation model of the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. Comparable statistical matching and data imputation techniques may be of relevance to other modellers, as they attempt to overcome similar data deficiencies. The 2001 national health survey (NHS) was the main data source for MediSim. However, the NHS has a number of limitations for use in a microsimulation model. To compensate for this, we statistically matched the NHS with another national survey to create synthetic families and get a complete record for every individual within each family. Further, we used complementary datasets to impute short term health conditions and prescribed drug usage for both short- and long-term health conditions. The application of statistical matching methods and use of complementary data sets significantly improved the usefulness of the NHS as a base dataset for MediSim.Base Data, Drug Usage, Microsimulation, Pharmaceutical Benefits, Scripts, Statistical Matching

The Tragedy of Annuitization

We construct a tractable discrete-time overlapping generations model of a closed economy and use it to study government redistribution of accidental bequests and private annuities in general equilibrium. Individuals face longevity risk as there is a positive probability of passing away before the retirement period. We find non-pathological cases where it is better for long-run welfare to waste accidental bequests than to give them to the elderly. Next we study the introduction of a perfectly competitive life insurance market offering actuarially fair annuities. There exists a tragedy of annuitization: although full annuitization of assets is privately optimal it is not socially beneficial due to adverse general equilibrium repercussions.longevity risk, risk sharing, overlapping generations, intergenerational transfers, annuity markets

Learning Assistant Supported Student Outcomes (LASSO) study initial findings

This study investigates how faculty, student, and course features are linked to student outcomes in Learning Assistant (LA) supported courses. Over 4,500 students and 17 instructors from 13 LA Alliance member institutions participated in the study. Each participating student completed an online concept inventory at the start (pre) and end (post) of their term. The physics concept inventories included Force and Motion Concept Evaluation (FMCE) and the Brief Electricity and Magnetism Assessment (BEMA). Concepts inventories from the fields of biology and chemistry were also included. Our analyses utilize hierarchical linear models that nest student level data (e.g. pre/post scores and gender) within course level data (e.g. discipline and course enrollment) to build models that examine student outcomes across institutions and disciplines. We report findings on the connections between students' outcomes and their gender, race, and time spent working with LAs as well as instructors' experiences with LAs.Comment: 4 pages (2 tables

Chronic kidney disease and cause-specific hospitalisation: a matched cohort study using primary and secondary care patient data.

BACKGROUND: Although chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with various outcomes, the burden of each condition for hospital admission is unknown. AIM: To quantify the association between CKD and cause-specific hospitalisation. DESIGN AND SETTING: A matched cohort study in primary care using Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics in England. METHOD: Patients with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 for ≥3 months) and a comparison group of patients without known CKD (matched for age, sex, GP, and calendar time) were identified, 2004-2014. Outcomes were hospitalisations with 10 common conditions as the primary admission diagnosis: heart failure; urinary tract infection; pneumonia; acute kidney injury (AKI); myocardial infarction; cerebral infarction; gastrointestinal bleeding; hip fracture; venous thromboembolism; and intracranial bleeding. A difference in the incidence rate of first hospitalisation for each condition was estimated between matched patients with and without CKD. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate a relative risk for each outcome. RESULTS: In a cohort of 242 349 pairs of patients, with and without CKD, the rate difference was largest for heart failure at 6.6/1000 person-years (9.7/1000 versus 3.1/1000 person-years in patients with and without CKD, respectively), followed by urinary tract infection at 5.2, pneumonia at 4.4, and AKI at 4.1/1000 person-years. The relative risk was highest for AKI with a fully adjusted hazard ratio of 4.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.47 to 5.38, followed by heart failure with 1.66, 95% CI = 1.59 to 1.75. CONCLUSION: Hospitalisations for heart failure, infection, and AKI showed strong associations with CKD in absolute and(or) relative terms, suggesting targets for improved preventive care

An empirical evaluation of the MuJava mutation operators

Abstrac

A Review of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA)-Assisted Psychotherapy

This paper provides a brief review of the history, proposed pharmacological mechanisms, safety issues, and clinical applications of the medicine 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA). Most clinical MDMA research in patients to date has focused on MDMA-assisted psychotherapy to treat posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In this review paper other potential therapeutic applications for MDMA therapy are described, including contemporary studies treating anxiety associated with autism and the authors' ongoing study exploring the potential role for MDMA-assisted psychotherapy to treat alcohol use disorder. MDMA therapy for PTSD is now entering the final Phase 3 stage of drug development, with a target set for licensing by the FDA and EMA in 2021. This means that if clinical efficacy criteria are achieved, MDMA would become a medicine