AJUSTE DE SEIS DISTRIBUIÇÕES DENSIDADE DE PROBABILIDADE À SÉRIES HISTÓRICAS DE RADIAÇÃO SOLAR, EM MOSSORÓ/RN

O objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar o ajuste de séries históricas de radiação solar global mensal  no período de 1970 a 2007, em Mossoró, RN, à sete modelos de distribuição densidade de probabilidade Normal, Log-Normal, Beta, Gama, Log-Pearson (Tipo III), Gumbel e Weibull, através dos testes Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Qui-quadrado, Cramer Von-Mises, Anderson Darling, Kuiper, e do Logaritmo da Máxima Verossimilhança. Verificou-se a superioridade do ajustamento das distribuições Gumbel, Weibull e Log-Normal, quando comparada com as outras seis distribuições. No geral, os critérios de ajuste concordaram com a aceitação da hipótese , no entanto, deve-se salientar que o teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov apresenta um nível de aprovação de uma distribuição sob teste muito elevado, o que gera uma certa insegurança aos critérios do teste, mas neste estudo como os dados são aproximadamente simétricos ele é o mais recomendado

Externally studentized normal midrange distribution

ABSTRACT The distribution of externally studentized midrange was created based on the original studentization procedures of Student and was inspired in the distribution of the externally studentized range. The large use of the externally studentized range in multiple comparisons was also a motivation for developing this new distribution. This work aimed to derive analytic equations to distribution of the externally studentized midrange, obtaining the cumulative distribution, probability density and quantile functions and generating random values. This is a new distribution that the authors could not find any report in the literature. A second objective was to build an R package for obtaining numerically the probability density, cumulative distribution and quantile functions and make it available to the scientific community. The algorithms were proposed and implemented using Gauss-Legendre quadrature and the Newton-Raphson method in R software, resulting in the SMR package, available for download in the CRAN site. The implemented routines showed high accuracy proved by using Monte Carlo simulations and by comparing results with different number of quadrature points. Regarding to the precision to obtain the quantiles for cases where the degrees of freedom are close to 1 and the percentiles are close to 100%, it is recommended to use more than 64 quadrature points

MÉTODOS DE ESTIMATIVA DA EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIA (ETO) PARA A REGIÃO DE MOSSORÓ-RN

O trabalho teve por objetivo analisar uma série histórica de 38 anos (1970 a 2007) dos dados da estação meteorológica Jerônimo Rosado da UFERSA (Universidade Federal Rural do Semi-Árido), em Mossoró/RN. A evapotranspiração de referência (ETo) foi estimada usando 10 métodos empíricos: Penman-Monteith-FAO, Linacre, Benavidez & Lopez, Jensen-Haise, Hargreaves & Samani, Tanque Classe A, Thornthwaite, Thornthwaite-Camargo, Camargo e Garcia Lopez. Os métodos Jensen-Haise, Hargreaves & Samani e Thornthwaite-Camargo foram comparados com o método de Penman-Monteith-FAO, em intervalos pentadial (5 dias), decendial (10 dias) e mensal (30 dias). O método de Hargreaves & Samani apresentou melhor desempenho para a região de Mossoró/RN.

On the analysis of mortality risk factors for hospitalized COVID-19 patients: A data-driven study using the major Brazilian database.

BackgroundBrazil became the epicenter of the COVID-19 epidemic in a brief period of a few months after the first officially registered case. The knowledge of the epidemiological/clinical profile and the risk factors of Brazilian COVID-19 patients can assist in the decision making of physicians in the implementation of early and most appropriate measures for poor prognosis patients. However, these reports are missing. Here we present a comprehensive study that addresses this demand.MethodsThis data-driven study was based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health Database (SIVEP-Gripe) regarding notified cases of hospitalized COVID-19 patients during the period from February 26th to August 10th, 2020. Demographic data, clinical symptoms, comorbidities and other additional information of patients were analyzed.ResultsThe hospitalization rate was higher for male gender (56.56%) and for older age patients of both sexes. Overall, the lethality rate was quite high (41.28%) among hospitalized patients, especially those over 60 years of age. Most prevalent symptoms were cough, dyspnoea, fever, low oxygen saturation and respiratory distress. Cardiac disease, diabetes, obesity, kidney disease, neurological disease, and pneumopathy were the most prevalent comorbidities. A high prevalence of hospitalized COVID-19 patients with cardiac disease (65.7%) and diabetes (53.55%) and with a high lethality rate of around 50% was observed. The intensive care unit (ICU) admission rate was 39.37% and of these 62.4% died. 24.4% of patients required invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), with high mortality among them (82.98%). The main mortality risk predictors were older age and IMV requirement. In addition, socioeconomic conditions have been shown to significantly influence the disease outcome, regardless of age and comorbidities.ConclusionOur study provides a comprehensive overview of the hospitalized Brazilian COVID-19 patients profile and the mortality risk factors. The analysis also evidenced that the disease outcome is influenced by multiple factors, as unequally affects different segments of population