Determinants of Rural Household Savings in Ethiopia: The Case of East Hararghe Zone, Oromia Regional State

Saving is undeniably considered as a strategic variable in the theory of economic growth determining both individual and national wellbeing. However, saving level in Ethiopia particularly in rural areas is very low and little is known empirically about its patterns and determinants.  Therefore, this study tries to assess the saving behaviors among rural household in East Hararghe Zone, Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia using survey data generated from 700 sample households. The results of this study show that 79.2% of the entire sample households had savings during the survey time. From  the tobit model used for analysis,  nine variables, namely household head education level, livestock holdings, access to credit service, income, investment, training participation, contact with extension contacts, forms of savings and saving motives were found to have significant influence on the amount of households savings. The results of the study shows that rural households do save irrespective of their low income mainly in informal saving institutions showing high request for accessibility potential for formal saving institutions. Key words: Rural household savings, Patterns of savings, Oromia, East Hararghe Zon

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. METHODS: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). FINDINGS: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1-38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78-0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91-1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95-1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58-35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49-42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05-0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76-2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. INTERPRETATION: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH

Effectiveness of Climate-Smart Agriculture Innovations in Smallholder Agriculture System in Ethiopia

The scientific basis for conceptualizing how farm households achieve the three climate-smart agriculture (CSA) pillars, the “triple benefit”, is not well developed. This paper examined the impacts of CSA innovations on simultaneously enhancing food security, climate adaptation, and reducing GHG emissions. A cross-sectional household survey was collected from a multi-stage sample of 424 smallholder farmers selected from five agroecosystems of the upper Blue Nile highlands in Ethiopia and analyzed using an endogenous switching regression (ESR) model. CSA innovations, improved variety, compost, row planting, and agroforestry, provide farmers with the benefits of enhanced food security and climate change adaptation, reducing GHG emissions from farm plots. Crop rotation provides farmers with enhanced food security and reduced livelihood vulnerability, while SWC meets the goal of enhancing food security and reducing GHG emissions. Unfortunately, adopting crop residue management, one of the recommended CSA practices in Ethiopia, does not deliver at least two of the CSA pillars. Farmers should be encouraged to adopt improved variety, crop rotation, compost, row planting, soil and water conservation, and agroforestry as the best portfolio of CSA innovation for highland smallholder agriculture systems

Multiple adoption of climate-smart agriculture innovation for agricultural sustainability: Empirical evidence from the Upper Blue Nile Highlands of Ethiopia

Adoption of appropriate climate smart innovations is the major step towards enhancing food security, building climate resilience capacity as well as reducing or removing GHG emissions from smallholder farms to sustainably maintain agricultural livelihoods. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the rate, intensity, and determinants of multiple adoptions of climate-smart agriculture innovations among smallholder farmers in Ethiopia's Upper Blue Nile Highlands. All Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) innovations have a synergistic effect on the adoption of other innovations, with the exception of Soil and Water Conservation (SWC). The economic constraint model demonstrated that farm size, number of plots, and access to financial services influence crop residue management, crop rotation, and agroforestry adoption. Hence, a larger number of plots, a larger total farm size, and access to rural savings and credit increase the probability of adoption. The diffusion innovation model, on the other hand, asserted that frequent extension visits, market access, access to information communication, social networks, and strong tenure security have no less of an impact on the adoption of CSA innovations such as improved variety, crop residue management, crop rotation, compost, SWC, and agroforestry. Furthermore, farmers' perceived technology-specific characteristics of CSA innovations increase the likelihood of adoption. Hence, formal education, more awareness about climate change and CSA, and the ability of CSA innovations to reduce the impact of climate change risks such as rising temperatures, increased hailstorms, and increased erratic rainfall have significantly increased the likelihood of adoption. The integrated technology adoption model explains the determinants of adopting multiple CSA innovations simultaneously. Livelihood asset building programs, strong public extension systems via mobile phone, voice messaging, and radio enhance adoption. Policy to identify and scale up a portfolio of farm-level specific CSA innovations is required

Event-based surveillance in north-western Ethiopia: experience and lessons learnt in the field

This study piloted an event-based surveillance system at the health centre (HC) level in Ethiopia. The system collects rumours in the community and registers them in rumour logbooks to record events of disease outbreaks and public health emergencies. Descriptive analysis was conducted on the events captured at the 59 study HCs in the Amhara Region in north-western Ethiopia between October 2013 and November 2014. A total of 126 rumours were registered at two thirds of the HCs during the study period. The average event reporting time was 3.8 days; response time of the HCs was 0.6 days, resulting in a total response time of 4.4 days. The most commonly reported rumours were measles-related (n = 90, 71%). These rumours followed a similar pattern of measles cases reported in the routine surveillance system. The largest proportion of rumours were reported by community members (n = 38, 36%) followed by health post workers (n = 36, 29%) who were normally informed by the community members about the rumours. This surveillance system was established along with an existing indicator-based surveillance system and was simple to implement. The implementation cost was minimal, requiring only printing and distribution of rumour logbooks to the HCs and brief orientations to focal persons. In countries where routine surveillance is still weak, an event-based surveillance system similar to this should be considered as a supplementary tool for disease monitoring