Does time varying risk premia exist in the international bond market? An empirical evidence from Australian and French bond market

The presence of risk premium is an issue that weakens the rational expectation hypothesis. This paper investigates changing behavior of time varying risk premium for holding 10 year maturity bond using a bivariate VARMA-DBEKK-AGARCH-M model. The model allows for asymmetric risk premia, causality and co-volatility spillovers jointly in the global bond markets. Empirical results show significant asymmetric partial co-volatility spillovers and risk premium exist in the bond markets. The estimates of the bivariate risk premia show bi-directional causality exist between the Australia and France Bond markets. Overall results suggest nonexistence of pure rational expectation theory in the risk premium model. This information is useful for the agents' strategic policy decision making in global bond markets

Modeling and forecasting population growth of Bangladesh

Information about the population growth of a country is an important issue that helps keeping the gross domestic product at a standard level without accelerating inflation rate. This is the condition demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB) for allocating funds for the development of the underdeveloped countries like Bangladesh. The population growth is the main target of Bangladesh government to keep the level of growth at a manageable level. This paper proposes an autoregressive time trend (ARt) model for forecasting population growth of Bangladesh. Using data from 1965 to 2003 and using the proposed ARt model this paper finds a downward population growth for Bangladesh for the extended period up to 2043

Factors affecting occupational choice in Papua New Guinea

A modified multinomial logit model, estimated by the robust maximum likelihood method, is used to investigate the degree to which 'nationally significant' leadership barriers and personal characteristics affect individual occupational choice in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Despite the changing nature of occupations, increasing influence of 'western' leadership and management practices and the impact of gender, there is a paucity of literature investigating the most significant factors influencing occupational choice in PNG's predominately patriarchal society. By combining 'nationally significant' leadership barrier variables and personal characteristics, this study develops an occupational choice model that predicts the, probability that an individual will choose one of four occupations considered in this study. Empirical analysis based on survey data, finds statistically significant impact of leadership barrier variables and all individual characteristics, except gender, in predicting occupational choice in PNG

Sources of volatility persistence: a case study of the U.K. pound/U.S. dollar exchange rate returns

This paper utilizes a new approach to examine the inherent nonlinear dynamics of the exchange rate returns volatility. Specifically, we utilize a regime switching threshold (i) generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (RS-TGARCH) and (ii) a fractional generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (RS-TFIGARCH) model. The RS-TGARCH model is found to be adequate in analyzing the first two moments of the U.K. pound/U.S. dollar monthly exchange rate returns series. The RS-TFIGARCH is found to be adequate for the daily returns series. The volatility persistence and leverage effects associated with exchange rate returns series are jointly tested by means of a Wald Chi-square test

Unravelling leadership barriers in Papua New Guinea

The context, barriers and practice of leadership in less developed countries, and Papua\ud New Guinea (PNG) in particular, has not attracted the attention of leadership\ud researchers with the same level of enthusiasm as leadership issues in developed\ud countries. PNG is a diverse Nation of tribal societies largely organised on the basis of\ud kinship and traditional cultural practices. The unique context and challenges of\ud leadership in PNG are not adequately explained by the extant literature. Littrell\ud (2002) argues that, 'the bulk of leadership literature is based on a self-limiting set of\ud assumptions, mostly reflecting Western industrialised culture. Almost all the\ud prevailing theories of leadership and almost all of the empirical evidence are rather\ud distinctly American in character' ( p:10). Leadership theories based on 'Western'\ud culture are not directly transferable to PNG, whilst significant contextual barriers act\ud to inhibit leadership processes. Leadership barriers (Prideaux, 2006) were tested.\ud Respondents reported that a lack of: roads and logistic infrastructure; organisational\ud and national vision; leaders poor 'people' skills; inadequate communication systems;\ud the continuing practice of 'traditional' leadership values, thinking and culture in the\ud workplace; the custom of Chiefian, Inheritance, Bigman, and Wantok are significant\ud leadership barriers. A lack of a common language and working to 'PNG time' are\ud further major barriers inhibiting effective leadership. Results reveal a requirement for\ud an integrative leadership approach contextualised to PNG's diversity and complexity,\ud and cognizant of the barriers identified, is required, if PNG is to integrate with an increasingly globalised world economy. Limitations and further research are\ud considered

Detecting volatility persistence in GARCH models in the presence of the leverage effect

Most asset prices are subject to significant volatility. The arrival of new information is viewed as the main source of volatility. As new information is continually released, financial asset prices exhibit volatility persistence, which affects financial risk analysis and risk management strategies. This paper proposes a nonlinear regime-switching threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model which can be used to analyse financial data. The empirical results based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimation presented in this paper suggest that the proposed model is capable of extracting information about the sources of volatility persistence in the presence of the leverage effect

Factors affecting occupational choice in Papua New Guinea

A modified multinomial logit model, estimated by the robust maximum likelihood method, is used to investigate the degree to which 'nationally significant' leadership barriers and personal characteristics affect individual occupational choice in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Despite the changing nature of occupations, increasing influence of 'western' leadership and management practices and the impact of gender, there is a paucity of literature investigating the most significant factors influencing occupational choice in PNG's predominately patriarchal society. By combining 'nationally significant' leadership barrier variables and personal characteristics, this study develops an occupational choice model that predicts the, probability that an individual will choose one of four occupations considered in this study. Empirical analysis based on survey data, finds statistically significant impact of leadership barrier variables and all individual characteristics, except gender, in predicting occupational choice in PNG

Forecasting cash flow model

This paper reviews a theoretical model of earnings, dividends and returns developed by Hobbes, Partington, and Stevenson,1996 (hetesfter, HPS model). The paper extends the HPS model by introducing the cash flow variable. We extend the model by arguing that returns are function of earnings changes, earnings levels, dividend changes including a shock component of current dividends and cash flow changes. Again the variables used in this models are observable and could be helpful to most empirical studies

Modeling and predicting urban male population of Bangladesh: evidence from census data

This paper predicts the urban male population of Bangladesh using geometric growth rate method. The predictions are computed in three stages. In the first stage, the urban male population for the years 1981 and 1991 was predicted using the smoothed data for those years. The first stage predictions were obtained by using generalized negative exponential model estimated by nonlinear least squares method. While the urban male population for the year 2001 was predicted by a linear model. Using the cross validation predictive power (CVPP) and 2^R this article constructed shrinkage coefficient which determines the adequacy of the first stage predicted values. These predicted values are then used in the second stage to estimate the geometric growth rate for different age groups. Finally, considering year 2001 urban male population as the base period and using the estimated geometric growth rate of the second stage the predictions of the urban male populations are computed for 2002 through to 2031

The driving forces of the level and the growth rate of real per capita income in Indonesia

We investigate the driving forces behind the level and the growth rate in real per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Indonesia. The ultimate reasons and the proximate causes underlying Indonesia's economic growth since the mid-1960s are still unclear. In the literature there have been at least three ways of investigating the driving forces of economic growth in Indonesia, namely: growth accounting system, regression and causality. The difference and improvement in this article is that we employed a two-step bounds testing approach to cointegration, which has not been done before; it uses the endogenous growth model to consider 12 policy variables and two external factors that potentially affect per capita income, this number is more than that has been done before. The empirical results that we obtained using this two-step bounds testing approach help us draw policy implications that if or when implemented would be expected to increase the growth of real per capita income, as well as the welfare of the people of Indonesia. Economic growth in Indonesia is largely driven by government policy, so the ability to increase Indonesia's economic growth rate, in the long run, will largely depend on the implementation of appropriate government policies