Gaussian Process Probes (GPP) for Uncertainty-Aware Probing

Understanding which concepts models can and cannot represent has been fundamental to many tasks: from effective and responsible use of models to detecting out of distribution data. We introduce Gaussian process probes (GPP), a unified and simple framework for probing and measuring uncertainty about concepts represented by models. As a Bayesian extension of linear probing methods, GPP asks what kind of distribution over classifiers (of concepts) is induced by the model. This distribution can be used to measure both what the model represents and how confident the probe is about what the model represents. GPP can be applied to any pre-trained model with vector representations of inputs (e.g., activations). It does not require access to training data, gradients, or the architecture. We validate GPP on datasets containing both synthetic and real images. Our experiments show it can (1) probe a model's representations of concepts even with a very small number of examples, (2) accurately measure both epistemic uncertainty (how confident the probe is) and aleatory uncertainty (how fuzzy the concepts are to the model), and (3) detect out of distribution data using those uncertainty measures as well as classic methods do. By using Gaussian processes to expand what probing can offer, GPP provides a data-efficient, versatile and uncertainty-aware tool for understanding and evaluating the capabilities of machine learning models

A Continuing Role for Minimum Parking Requirements in a Dense Growing City? Evidence from New York City

Depuis le début de l'occupation de la Cisjordanie et de la Bande de Gaza en 1967, l'émergence, le renforcement ou l'affaiblissement d'un leadership palestinien « de l'intérieur » fait l'objet d'une âpre concurrence entre la population locale première concernée, Israël puissance occupante, la Jordanie, puissance nominalement souveraine sur la Cisjordanie et Jérusalem-Est jusqu'en juillet 88, et l'Organisation de Libération de la Palestine (OLP) reconnue « unique représentant légitime du peuple..

Acquisition of Chess Knowledge in AlphaZero

What is learned by sophisticated neural network agents such as AlphaZero? This question is of both scientific and practical interest. If the representations of strong neural networks bear no resemblance to human concepts, our ability to understand faithful explanations of their decisions will be restricted, ultimately limiting what we can achieve with neural network interpretability. In this work we provide evidence that human knowledge is acquired by the AlphaZero neural network as it trains on the game of chess. By probing for a broad range of human chess concepts we show when and where these concepts are represented in the AlphaZero network. We also provide a behavioural analysis focusing on opening play, including qualitative analysis from chess Grandmaster Vladimir Kramnik. Finally, we carry out a preliminary investigation looking at the low-level details of AlphaZero's representations, and make the resulting behavioural and representational analyses available online.Comment: 69 pages, 44 figure

MRI after Whoops procedure:diagnostic value for residual sarcoma and predictive value for an incomplete second resection

OBJECTIVE: To determine the value of MRI for the detection and assessment of the anatomic extent of residual sarcoma after a Whoops procedure (unplanned sarcoma resection) and its utility for the prediction of an incomplete second resection. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study included consecutive patients who underwent a Whoops procedure, successively followed by gadolinium chelate-enhanced MRI and second surgery at a tertiary care sarcoma center. RESULTS: Twenty-six patients were included, of whom 19 with residual tumor at the second surgery and 8 with an incomplete second resection (R1: n = 6 and R2: n = 2). Interobserver agreement for residual tumor at MRI after a Whoops procedure was perfect (κ value: 1.000). MRI achieved a sensitivity of 47.4% (9/19), a specificity of 100% (7/7), a positive predictive value of 100% (9/9), and a negative predictive value of 70.0% (7/17) for the detection of residual tumor. MRI correctly classified 2 of 19 residual sarcomas as deep-seated (i.e., extending beyond the superficial muscle fascia) but failed to correctly classify 3 of 19 residual sarcomas as deep-seated. There were no significant associations between MRI findings (presence of residual tumor, maximum tumor diameter, anatomic tumor extent, tumor margins, tumor spiculae, and tumor tail on the superficial fascia) with an incomplete (R1 or R2) second resection. CONCLUSION: Gadolinium chelate-enhanced MRI is a reproducible method to rule in residual sarcoma, but it is insufficiently accurate to rule out and assess the anatomic extent or residual sarcoma after a Whoops procedure. Furthermore, MRI has no utility in predicting an incomplete second resection

Late Quaternary loess in northeastern Colorado: Part I—Age and paleoclimatic significance

Loess in eastern Colorado covers an estimated 14,000 km2, and is the westernmost part of the North American midcontinent loess province. Stratigraphic studies indicate there were two periods of loess deposition in eastern Colorado during late Quaternary time. The first period spanned ca. 20,000 to 12,000 14C yr B.P. (ca. 20–14 ka) and correlates reasonably well with the culmination and retreat of Pinedale glaciers in the Colorado Front Range during the last glacial maximum. The second period of loess deposition occurred between ca. 11,000 and 9,000 14C yr B.P. This interval may be Holocene or may correlate with a hypothesized Younger Dryas glacial advance in the Colorado Front Range. Sedimentologic, mineralogic, and geochemical data indicate that as many as three sources could have supplied loess in eastern Colorado. These sources include glaciogenic silt (derived from the Colorado Front Range) and two bedrock sources, volcaniclastic silt from the White River Group, and clays from the Pierre Shale. The sediment sources imply a generally westerly paleowind during the last glacial maximum. New carbon isotope data, combined with published faunal data, indicate that the loess was probably deposited on a cool steppe, implying a last glacial maximum July temperature depression, relative to the present, of at least 5–6 °C. Overall, loess deposition in eastern Colorado occurred mostly toward the end of the last glacial maximum, under cooler and drier conditions, with generally westerly winds from more than one source

Lorentz Violation in Extra Dimensions

In theories with extra dimensions it is well known that the Lorentz invariance of the $D=4+n$-dimensional spacetime is lost due to the compactified nature of the $n$ dimensions leaving invariance only in 4d. In such theories other sources of Lorentz violation may exist associated with the physics that initiated the compactification process at high scales. Here we consider the possibility of capturing some of this physics by analyzing the higher dimensional analog of the model of Colladay and Kostelecky. In that scenario a complete set of Lorentz violating operators arising from spontaneous Lorentz violation, that are not obviously Planck-scale suppressed, are added to the Standard Model action. Here we consider the influence of the analogous set of operators which break Lorentz invariance in 5d within the Universal Extra Dimensions picture. We show that such operators can greatly alter the anticipated Kaluza-Klein(KK) spectra, induce electroweak symmetry breaking at a scale related to the inverse compactification radius, yield sources of parity violation in, e.g., 4d QED/QCD and result in significant violations of KK-parity conservation produced by fermion Yukawa couplings, thus destabilizing the lightest KK particle. LV in 6d is briefly discussed.Comment: 26 pages, 2 figures; additional references and discussio

The Minimal Phantom Sector of the Standard Model: Higgs Phenomenology and Dirac Leptogenesis

We propose the minimal, lepton-number conserving, SU(3)xSU(2)xU(1) gauge-singlet, or phantom, extension of the Standard Model. The extension is natural in the sense that all couplings are of O(1) or forbidden due to a phantom sector global U(1)_D symmetry, and basically imitates the standard Majorana see-saw mechanism. Spontaneous breaking of the U(1)_D symmetry triggers consistent electroweak gauge symmetry breaking only if it occurs at a scale compatible with small Dirac neutrino masses and baryogenesis through Dirac leptogenesis. Dirac leptogenesis proceeds through the usual out-of-equilibrium decay scenario, leading to left and right-handed neutrino asymmetries that do not fully equilibrate after they are produced. The model contains two physical Higgs bosons and a massless Goldstone boson. The existence of the Goldstone boson suppresses the Higgs to bb branching ratio and instead the Higgs bosons will mainly decay to invisible Goldstone and/or to visible vector boson pairs. In a representative scenario, we estimate that with 30 fb^-1 integrated luminosity, the LHC could discover this invisibly decaying Higgs, with mass ~120 GeV. At the same time a significantly heavier, partner Higgs boson with mass ~210 GeV could be found through its vector boson decays. Electroweak constraints as well as astrophysical and cosmological implications are analysed and discussed.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures. Corrected typos and added references. To appear in JHE

Noncommutative Inspired Black Holes in Extra Dimensions

In a recent string theory motivated paper, Nicolini, Smailagic and Spallucci (NSS) presented an interesting model for a noncommutative inspired, Schwarzschild-like black hole solution in 4-dimensions. The essential effect of having noncommutative co-ordinates in this approach is to smear out matter distributions on a scale associated with the turn-on of noncommutativity which was taken to be near the 4-d Planck mass. In particular, NSS took this smearing to be essentially Gaussian. This energy scale is sufficiently large that in 4-d such effects may remain invisible indefinitely. Extra dimensional models which attempt to address the gauge hierarchy problem, however, allow for the possibility that the effective fundamental scale may not be far from $\sim$ 1 TeV, an energy regime that will soon be probed by experiments at both the LHC and ILC. In this paper we generalize the NSS model to the case where flat, toroidally compactified extra dimensions are accessible at the Terascale and examine the resulting modifications in black hole properties due to the existence of noncommutativity. We show that while many of the noncommutativity-induced black hole features found in 4-d by NSS persist, in some cases there can be significant modifications due the presence of extra dimensions. We also demonstrate that the essential features of this approach are not particularly sensitive to the Gaussian nature of the smearing employed by NSS.Comment: 30 pages, 12 figures; slight text modifications and references adde