Labor effects of adult mortality in Tanzanian households

Due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic, sub-Saharan populations are challenged with increasing adult mortality rates that have potentially profound economic implications. Yet, little is known about the impact of adult deaths in African households. Using panel data from Tanzania, this paper will explore how prime-age adult mortality impacts the time allocation of surviving household members and the portfolio of household farming activities. Analysis of farm and chore hours across demographic groups generally found small and insignificant changes in labor supply of individuals in households experiencing a prime-age adult death. While some farm activities are temporarily scaled back and wage employment falls after a male death, households did not shift cultivation towards subsistence food farming and did not appear to have reduced their diversification over income sources more than six months after a death.Demographics,Public Health Promotion,Health Economics&Finance,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Housing&Human Habitats,Health Economics&Finance,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Demographics,Housing&Human Habitats

Adult mortality and children’s transition into marriage

Adult mortality due to HIV/AIDS and other diseases is posited to affect children through a number of pathways. On top of health and education outcomes, adult mortality can have significant effects on children by influencing demographic outcomes including the timing of marriage. This paper examines marriage outcomes for a sample of children interviewed in Tanzania in the early 1990s and re-interviewed in 2004. We find that while girls who became paternal orphans married at significantly younger ages, orphanhood had little effect on boys. On the other hand, non-parental deaths in the household affect the timing of marriage for boys.adult mortality, AIDS/HIV, marriage, orphans

The effect of school type on academic achievement : evidence from Indonesia

Using data from Indonesia, Newhouse and Beegle to evaluate the impact of school type on academic achievement of junior secondary school students (grades 7-9). Students that graduate from public junior secondary schools, controlling for a variety of other characteristics, score 0.15 to 0.3 standard deviations higher on the national exit exam than comparable privately schooled peers. This finding is robust to OLS, fixed-effects, and instrumental variable estimation strategies. Students attending Muslim private schools, including Madrassahs, fare no worse on average than students attending secular private schools. The results provide indirect evidence that higher quality inputs at public junior secondary schools promote higher test scores.Teaching and Learning,Secondary Education,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Primary Education,Gender and Education

Labor Shortages Despite Underemployment? Seasonality in Time Use in Malawi

Evidence for Malawi and other developing countries suggests the existence of labor shortages at the peak of the cropping season, with negative impacts on the ability of households to make the most of their endowments such as land. At the same time, for most of the year, there is substantial underemployment, especially in rural areas. It could therefore be argued that seasonality in the demand for labor is leading to both underemployment and labor shortages. This paper provides basic descriptive data from a 2004 nationally representative household survey to assess the typical workload of the population. The data confirm the presence of strong seasonality effects in the supply of labor, as well as substantial differences in workload between men and women due to the burden of domestic work, including the time spent for collecting water and wood.Time use; labor supply; poverty; intrahousehold allocation; seasonality

Physical Transport and Chemical Behavior of Dispersed Oil

During response operations, scientific information is provided to decision makers, such as the Federal On-Scene Coordinator (FOSC), state and federal trustees, and the public. The decision to use chemical dispersants during a response is made among all these parties, and during the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill the dispersant discussion included both surface and subsurface application of chemical dispersants. This paper is intended to provide perspective on research needs considered pre- and post-DWH oil spill related to response modeling and data collection needs for decision support of dispersant application and its potential effects. Given time constraints for implementing models and sampling strategies for response, requirements for data and types of questions to be addressed may be significantly different than requirements for research or damage assessment activities. At the time of this writing, just over a year after the successful response operations to cap the well, many studies are still in progress, and data are still being collected and evaluated to assess dispersant effectiveness and possible impacts. More information and research results will become available over the next months to years. Thus these research needs, as summarized for this workshop, should be evaluated again at a later time

Demographic and socioeconomic patterns of HIV/AIDS prevalence in Africa

Understanding the demographic and socioeconomic patterns of the prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa is crucial for developing programs and policies to combat HIV/AIDS. This paper looks critically at the methods and analytical challenges to study the links between socioeconomic and demographic status and HIV/AIDS. Some of the misconceptions about the HIV/AIDS epidemic are discussed and unusual empirical evidence from the existing body of work is presented. Several important messages emerge from the results. First, the study of the link between socioeconomic status and HIV faces a range of challenges related to definitions, samples, and empirical methods. Second, given the large gaps in evidence and the changing nature of the epidemic, there is a need to continue to improve the evidence base on the link between demographic and socioeconomic status and the prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS. Finally, it is difficult to generalize results across countries. As the results presented here and in other studies based on Demographic and Health Survey datasets show, few consistent and significant patterns of prevalence by socioeconomic and demographic status are evident.Population Policies,Disease Control&Prevention,HIV AIDS,Gender and Health,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

The long-run impacts of adult deaths on older household members in Tanzania

HIV/AIDS is drastically changing the demographic landscape in high-prevalence countries in Africa. The prime-age adult population bears the majority of the mortality burden. These “missing” prime-age adults have implications for the socioeconomic well-being of surviving family members. This study uses a 13-year panel from Tanzania to examine the impacts of prime-age mortality on the time use and health outcomes of older adults, with a focus on long-run impacts and gender dimensions. Prime-age deaths are weakly associated with increases in working hours of older women when the deceased adult was co-resident in the household. The association is strongest when the deceased adult was living with the elderly individual at the time of death and for deaths in the distant past, suggesting that shorter-run studies may not capture the full extent of the consequences of adult mortality for survivors. Holding more assets seems to buffer older adults from having to work more after these shocks. Most health indicators are not worse for older adults when a prime-age household member died, although more distant adult deaths are associated with an increased probability of acute illness for the surviving elderly. For deaths of children who were not residing with their parents at baseline, the findings show no impact on hours worked or health outcomes.Population Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Gender and Health,Demographics,Gender and Social Development

Reliability of recall in agricultural data

Despite the importance of agriculture to economic development, and a vast accompanying literature on the subject, little research has been done on the quality of the underlying data. Due to survey logistics, agricultural data are usually collected by asking respondents to recall the details of events occurring during past agricultural seasons that took place a number of months prior to the interview. This gap can lead to recall bias in reported data on agricultural activities. The problem is further complicated when interviews are conducted over the course of several months, thus leading to recall of variable length. To test for such recall bias, the length of time between harvest and interview is examined for three African countries with respect to several common agricultural input and harvest measures. The analysis shows little evidence of recall bias impacting data quality. There is some indication that more salient events are less subject to recall decay. Overall, the results allay some concerns about the quality of some types of agricultural data collected through recall over lengthy periods.Crops&Crop Management Systems,Educational Sciences,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems,Regional Economic Development,Rural Poverty Reduction

Frame-of-reference bias in subjective welfare regressions

Past research has found that subjective questions about an individuals'economic status do not correspond closely to measures of economic welfare based on household income or consumption. Survey respondents undoubtedly hold diverse ideas about what it means to be"poor"or"rich."Further, this heterogeneity may be correlated with other characteristics, including welfare, leading to frame-of-reference bias. To test for this bias, vignettes were added to a nationally representative survey of Tajikistan, in which survey respondents rank the economic status of the theoretical vignette households, as well as their own. The vignette rankings are used to reveal the respondent's own scale. The findings indicate that respondents hold diverse scales in assessing their welfare, but that there is little bias in either the economic gradient of subjective welfare or most other coefficients on covariates of interest. These results provide a firmer foundation for standard survey methods and regression specifications for subjective welfare data.Rural Poverty Reduction,Housing&Human Habitats,Economic Theory&Research,Poverty Lines,Agricultural Knowledge&Information Systems

Why Should We Care About Child Labor? The Education, Labor Market, and Health Consequences of Child Labor

Although there is an extensive literature on the determinants of child labor and many initiatives aimed at combating it, there is limited evidence on the consequences of child labor on socio-economic outcomes such as education, wages, and health. We evaluate the causal effect of child labor participation on these outcomes using panel data from Vietnam and an instrumental variables strategy. Five years subsequent to the child labor experience, we find significant negative impacts on school participation and educational attainment, but also find substantially higher earnings for those (young) adults who worked as children. We find no significant effects on health. Over a longer horizon, we estimate that from age 30 onward the forgone earnings attributable to lost schooling exceed any earnings gain associated with child labor and that the net present discounted value of child labor is positive for discount rates of 11.5 percent or higher. We show that child labor is prevalent among households likely to have higher borrowing costs, that are farther from schools, and whose adult members experienced negative returns to their own education. This evidence suggests that reducing child labor will require facilitating access to credit and will also require households to be forward looking.