et subito lupus factus est: Linguistische und metrische Untersuchungen zu Petrons Werwolfgeschichte (Petron. 61-62)

Zu den eindrucksvollsten Passagen in Petrons Satyrica zählt ohne Zweifel die von Niceros erzählte Werwolfgeschichte (61, 3 - 62, 14). Doch im Gegensatz zu den längeren Novellen über die Witwe von Ephesus und den Knaben von Pergamon hat diese Erzählung in der Forschung bisher vergleichsweise wenig Beachtung gefunden. Mehr noch als für die Untersuchung literaturwissenschaftlicher Aspekte gilt dies für die sprachwissenschaftliche Analyse des von Niceros verwendeten Lateins. In der vorliegenden Studie wird daher erstmals die Sprache der Werwolfgeschichte einer umfassenden Untersuchung unterworfen, wobei alle Ebenen des linguistischen Systems (Phonologie, Lexik, Morphosyntax) Berücksichtigung finden. Im Zentrum aller Untersuchungen steht die Frage nach der Abweichung der einzelnen sprachlichen Merkmale von der Norm des literarischen Lateins und der urbanen Ausdrucksweise der Gebildeten. Um zu möglichst belastbaren Aussagen zu gelangen, werden die linguistischen Gegebenheiten der Werwolfgeschichte mit der Situation in den übrigen – vulgärsprachlichen wie urbanen – Partien des Romans, in den Werken anderer lateinischer Autoren und in den romanischen Sprachen verglichen. Über die außerliterarische Verbreitung bestimmter Merkmale erteilen die pompejanischen Inschriften und die Briefe des Claudius Terentianus Auskunft. Die Untersuchung des Textes beschränkt sich jedoch nicht auf rein linguistische Aspekte, sondern berücksichtigt auch die literarische Verfasstheit der Werwolf-Novelle und den situativen Kontext, in dem sie erzählt wird. In einer ergänzenden metrischen Analyse wird erstmals die von Petron in der Werwolfgeschichte verwendete Satzschlusstechnik untersucht. Die Studie kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass Niceros' Ausdrucksweise – trotz ihres unverkennbar volkssprachlichen Charakters, der sich vor allem im Bereich der Lexik zu erkennen gibt – deutlich weniger von den Normen des literarischen Lateins abweicht als die Sprache der anderen Freigelassenen. Gerade im Bereich der Morphosyntax weist die Werwolfgeschichte mehrere Beispiele für einen auffallend urbanen Sprachgebrauch auf. Der Grund für diese eigentümliche Mischung volkssprachlicher und urbaner Charakteristika ist der situative Kontext, in dem die Novelle erzählt wird: Niceros fürchtet sich davor, von den sozial wie intellektuell überlegenen scholastici verlacht zu werden (timeo istos scholasticos, ne me [de]rideant [61, 4]). Er bemüht sich daher – im Rahmen seiner begrenzten sprachlichen Möglichkeiten – um eine möglichst gewählte Ausdrucksweise und versucht so, seine Souveränität als Erzähler gegenüber den scholastici zu betonen. Vor diesem Hintergrund erscheinen die literarische und die sprachliche Form des Textes als zwei Aspekte einer – im sprachwissenschaftlichen Sinne – pragmatischen Reaktion auf eine von sozialer und intellektueller Ungleichheit geprägte Vortragssituation. Niceros' Ausdrucksweise ist die logische Folge einer situativ bedingten Modifizierung seiner grundsätzlich volkssprachlichen Ausdrucksweise. Die metrische Analyse des Textes ergibt, dass die Werwolfgeschichte – anders als Bret Boyce in seiner Monographie über die Spache der Freigelassenen behauptet – keine signifikant hohe Zahl akzentuierender Klauseln enthält. Die Studie wurde im Sommer 2014 abgeschlossen

Hunc quoque carminibus referam fortasse triumphum: Zur Funktion der Triumph-Thematik in Ovids Pont. 2,1

In der augusteischen Dichtung – und besonders bei Ovid – ist das Triumph-Motiv ein häufig anzutreffendes Gestaltungselement, das in der literaturwissenschaftlichen Forschung bisher jedoch nur wenig Aufmerksamkeit auf sich gezogen hat. In der vorliegenden Studie wird daher erstmals die Funktion dieses Motivs in Pont. 2,1 – einer der ausführlichsten Triumphschilderungen Ovids – eingehend analysiert und vor dem Hintergrund der übrigen Triumphszenen im Werk der augusteischen Dichter interpretiert. Ausgangspunkt dieser Analyse ist das von M. Beard entwickelte Konzept des Triumphs als eines „ritual in ink“, eines Rituals „whose principal form is in ink alone ... a ritual that exists on paper frequently without a direct referent in ritual action“. Durch die Übertragung dieses Konzepts auf Pont. 2,1 wird deutlich, wie Ovid das mimetische Potential der Triumphelemente und die mannigfachen intertextuellen Bezüge seiner Schilderung benutzt, um die außersprachliche Referentialität des Triumphrituals in Frage zu stellen und so die offizielle Triumphideologie des Kaiserhauses zu unterminieren. Dabei macht sich der an den Rand des römischen Herrschaftsbereichs relegierte Dichter die staatlich sanktionierte Auffassung zu eigen, der zufolge im Triumphritual als „staging of the world“ (I. Östenberg) die Übereinstimmung von urbs und orbis terrarum zum Ausdruck kommt, und setzt sich im Schlussteil des Gedichts sogar selbst als poeta vates und auctor des von ihm beschriebenen Triumphzugs an die Stelle des triumphierenden Kaisers. Neben den erwähnten literatur- und geschichtswissenschaftlichen Ansätzen berücksichtigt die Untersuchung auch linguistische Analysekategorien. Dabei handelt es sich zum einen um die Zeichentheorien F. de Saussures und C. K. Ogdens, mit deren Hilfe die verschiedenen Elemente der Triumphschilderung als ein Netz von Signifikant-Signifikat-Beziehungen verstehbar werden, die sich durch das Fehlen des in Ogdens Dreiecksmodell vorgesehenen Referenzaspekts auszeichnen. Hinzu kommt das im Rahmen der Sprechakttheorie entwickelte Konzept unterschiedlicher directions of fit, die ein genaueres Verständnis der Unterminierung des aus linguistischer Sicht als unterdeterminiert zu bezeichnenden Triumphrituals ermöglichen. Von besonderer Bedeutung ist dabei die Benennung der Triumphelemente durch Zuschauer und eigens zu diesem Zweck im Triumphzug mitgeführte tituli. Am Ende der Arbeit werden Perspektiven für weitergehende Untersuchungen aufgezeigt, die auf der Kombination literatur- und sprachwissenschaftlicher Analyseverfahren beruhen. Die Studie wurde im Frühjahr 2014 abgeschlossen

Predicting case numbers during infectious diseaseoutbreaks when some cases are undiagnosed

We describe a method for calculating 95 per cent bounds for the current number of hidden cases and the future number of diagnosed cases during an outbreak of an infectious disease. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo approach is used to fit a model of infectious disease transmission that takes account of undiagnosed cases. Assessing this method on simulated data, we find that it provides conservative 95 per cent bounds for the number of undiagnosed cases and future case numbers, and that these bounds are robust to modifications in the assumptions generating the simulated data. Moreover, the method provides a good estimate of the initial reproduction number, and the reproduction number in the latter stages of the outbreak. Applying the approach to SARS data from Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Canada, the bounds on future diagnosed cases are found to be reliable, and the bounds on hidden cases suggests that there were few hidden cases remaining at the end of the outbreaks in each region. We estimate that the initial reproduction numbers lay between 1.5 and 3, and the reproduction numbers in the later stages of the outbreak lay between 0.36 and 0.6

Estimating vaccine effects on Transmission of Infection from Household Data

This article is concerned with a method for making inferences about various measures of vaccine efficacy. These measures describe reductions in susceptibility and in the potential to transmit infection. The method uses data on household outbreaks; it is based on a model that allows for transmission of infection both from within a household and from the outside. The use of household data is motivated by the hope that these are informative about vaccine-induced reduction of the potential to transmit infection, as household outbreaks contain some information about the possible source of infection. For illustration, the method is applied to observed data on household outbreaks of smallpox. These data are of the form needed and the number of households is of a size that can be managed in a vaccine trial. It is found that vaccine effects, such as the mean reduction in susceptibility and the mean reduction in the potential to infect others, per infectious contact, can be estimated with precision. However, a more specific parameter reflecting the reduction in infectivity for individuals partially responding to vaccination is not estimated well in the application. An evaluation of the method using artificial data shows that this parameter can be estimated with greater precision when we have outbreak data on a large number of small households

"Why moralize upon it?" : Questions of morality and guilt in Herman Melville's "Bartleby, the Scrivener", "Benito Cereno", and Billy Budd, Sailor

The question of what constitutes morally sound behavior informs all of Melville’s writing and, to a large degree, accounts for its continuing appeal. Some of the most probing examinations of the human capacity for good and evil can be found in two short stories that Melville wrote for Putnam’s Monthly Magazine between 1853 and 1856: "Bartleby, the Scrivener" (1853) and "Benito Cereno" (1855). Although very different in setting and "surface topic" – Wall Street capitalism on the one hand and slavery on the other – both stories have a very similar basic configuration: a confident person is unexpectedly confronted with the mysterious "other" that challenges his snug and comfortable outlook on life. In both cases, this other figure is dead by the end of the story and the reader is left with the nagging question of who is to blame for what has happened. This basic pattern also applies to a short novel which Melville began thirty years after writing for Putnam’s and which was left unfinished at his death in 1891. Billy Budd, Sailor (1924) shows yet another "man of the world" who is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, the devil being the iniquitous master-at-arms and the deep blue sea being the blue-eyed Handsome Sailor. While all three stories invite moral judgment of their non-title characters, they never openly prescribe what kind of verdict readers should pass on them. In the present study I use a comparative approach to offer some new insight into the nature of the moral dilemmata that Melville examines and the kind of conclusion that readers are encouraged to reach. The most important aspect that is considered is the way in which Melville uses narrative technique – and in particular point of view – in describing morally ambiguous situations. How does the choice of one particular perspective - first-person narration in "Bartleby", a limited point of view in "Benito Cereno" and an omniscient narrator in Billy Budd - determine our understanding and evaluation of the actions of the morally challenged protagonists in these stories? A secondary aspect that is considered to answer this question is the use of Christian and classical imagery and allusions. How are the two categories made to interact in the three stories and what does this tell us about the message that the narrator intends to convey? One final aspect concerns the construction of character constellations. How does the use of a particular point of view and a certain combination of Christian and/or classical images contribute to the description of the main characters of the stories and how do they relate to one another? Of particular interest in this context is of course the central non-title character facing a morally difficult situation. The more general aspects just mentioned translate into largely comparable approaches in the analysis and interpretation of the three texts. In the case of "Bartleby", the narrator is shown to be a conscious narrator who uses the piece of literature he composes for an extended self-portrait and as a means of contemplating his situation in life. It becomes clear that his use of Christian and classical imagery hints at an understanding of what is right and wrong and some – partial – awareness of his own moral deficiency. The figure of Bartleby, as well as the other three office clerks, can be seen to function as fictitious constituents of the process of introspection that the lawyer engages in. In dealing with "Benito Cereno", the deliberate structuring of the story and the conspicuous parallels between the first part and the deposition in the second part are examined. The narrator deliberately uses a limited point of view in order to condemn the "good-natured" American Amasa Delano, who is wholly unaware of the actual power relations on board the San Dominick. The use of Christian imagery adds to the indictment of European colonization in particular and Western arrogance and racism in general. Billy Budd, finally, emerges as the most conspicuously incongruous of all three texts, both with regard to the omniscient narrator, who does not seem to follow any identifiable ideological agenda, and to the use of Christian and classical allusions, which, unlike in "Bartleby", are not used to contrast clearly discernible moral categories. Thus, if Melville’s last work is also his most ambiguous, this is due to the way in which the narrator misleads the reader by confronting him with hopelessly incoherent and contradictory pieces of information

Antagonistic Autoantibodies to Insulin-Like Growth Factor-1 Receptor Associate with Poor Physical Strength

Natural autoantibodies to the IGF1 receptor (IGF1R-aAb) have been described in relation to Graves' ophthalmopathy. Other physiological roles of natural IGF1R-aAb are not known. We hypothesized that IGF1R-aAb may be related to muscle development. Serum samples (n = 408) from young overweight subjects (n = 143) were collected during a lifestyle intervention study. Anthropometric parameters, along with leptin, IGF1 and IGF1R-aAb concentrations, were analyzed, and the subjects were categorized into positive or negative for IGF1R-aAb. Eleven out of 143 subjects (7.7%) were positive for IGF1R-aAb. Identified IGF1R-aAb were molecularly characterized and showed antagonistic activity in vitro impairing IGF1-mediated IGF1R activation. Mean body weight, height or age were similar between IGF1R-aAb-positive and -negative subjects, but IGF1 concentrations differed. Jumping ability, as well as right and left handgrip strengths, were lower in the IGF1R-aAb-positive as compared to the IGF1R-aAb-negative subjects. We conclude that natural IGF1R-aAb are detectable in apparently healthy subjects and are capable of antagonizing IGF1-dependent IGF1R activation. Moreover, the presence of IGF1R-aAb is associated with poor physical strength. Although the causality of this association is unclear, the data imply a potential influence of IGF1R autoimmunity on muscle development

Optimization of neural networks for time-domain simulation of mooring lines

When using artificial neural networks in methods for dynamic analysis of slender structures, the computational effort associated with time-domain response simulation may be reduced drastically compared to classic solution strategies. This article demonstrates that the network structure of an artificial neural network, which has been trained to simulate forces in a mooring line of a floating offshore platform, can be optimized and reduced by different optimization procedures. The procedures both detect and prune the least salient network weights successively, and besides trimming the network, they also can be used to rank the importance of the various network inputs. The dynamic response of slender marine structures often depends on several external load components, and by applying the optimization procedures to a trained artificial neural network, it is possible to classify the external force components with respect to importance and subsequently determine which of them may be ignored in the analysis. The performance of the optimization procedures is illustrated by a numerical example, which shows that, in particular, the most simple procedures are able to remove more than half of the network weights in an artificial neural network without significant loss of simulation accuracy. </jats:p

Comparison of Neural Network Error Measures for Simulation of Slender Marine Structures

Training of an artificial neural network (ANN) adjusts the internal weights of the network in order to minimize a predefined error measure. This error measure is given by an error function. Several different error functions are suggested in the literature. However, the far most common measure for regression is the mean square error. This paper looks into the possibility of improving the performance of neural networks by selecting or defining error functions that are tailor-made for a specific objective. A neural network trained to simulate tension forces in an anchor chain on a floating offshore platform is designed and tested. The purpose of setting up the network is to reduce calculation time in a fatigue life analysis. Therefore, the networks trained on different error functions are compared with respect to accuracy of rain flow counts of stress cycles over a number of time series simulations. It is shown that adjusting the error function to perform significantly better on a specific problem is possible. On the other hand. it is also shown that weighted error functions actually can impair the performance of an ANN