Elections in Bosnia: more of the same, but there is a silver lining

Elections were held in Bosnia and Herzegovina on 7 October. Dimitar Bechev explains that Bosnian politics continues to be dominated by two ethnically defined poles, each with external support. The country will probably hold together as a state, but it will be highly dysfunctional and resistant to EU and US initiatives to promote pro-western reforms

A game of polls: Bulgaria’s presidential election threatens to shake up the country’s party system

Bulgaria will hold presidential elections on 6 November, with a second round runoff scheduled for 13 November. Dimitar Bechev previews the contest, writing that the candidate supported by the country’s largest party, GERB, could face a tougher contest than originally anticipated

A very Bulgarian drama: what Rumen Radev’s presidential election victory means for Bulgarian politics

Rumen Radev, the candidate backed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party, won Bulgaria’s presidential election on 13 November. Dimitar Bechev assesses what the result means for the country, stating that while Radev has been described as a pro-Russian candidate, the more important implications will be for Boyko Borisov and the Bulgarian government. Borisov has tendered the resignation of his cabinet and elections are now likely to be held in the spring of 2017

The murder of Russia’s ambassador shows Turkey in the worst possible light

Russia’s ambassador to Turkey, Andrei Karlov, was shot dead on 19 December at an art gallery in Ankara. Dimitar Bechev states that although the incident was shocking, it is unlikely to disrupt the recent thawing of relations between the two countries. But the incident nevertheless shows Turkey in the worst possible light and will provide an opportunity for Russia to extract further concessions, particularly in relation to Syria

Russia in the Balkans: Perceptions and Realities

The pragmatic interests of the Balkan states – which lie in the direction of Europe – are imposing limits on the Kremlin’s drive to regain influence in the region. Dimitar Bechev summarises the Russia in the Balkans conference organised by LSEE Research on South Eastern Europe and SEESOX (South East Europe Studies at Oxford) on Friday, 13 March

Election reaction: the status quo wins in Bulgaria

Bulgaria held parliamentary elections on 26 March, with preliminary results indicating that GERB, led by Boyko Borisov, had emerged as the largest party. Dimitar Bechev analyses the results, writing that despite the Bulgarian Socialist Party building on their success in last year’s presidential election to run GERB close, the results showed the resilience of the status quo in the country

Following a disappointing presidential election, Croatia’s government now faces a challenge to hold on to power

On 11 January, Croatia held the second round of its presidential election, with Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, backed by the opposition Croatian Democratic Union, narrowly beating incumbent President Ivo Josipović. Dimitar Bechev writes that with parliamentary elections scheduled for later in the year, the Croatian government led by Prime Minister Zoran Milanović now faces a challenge to hold on to power

No hope in Turkey

There is no silver lining to be sought in the aftermath of the Turkish constitutional referendum, suggests Dimitar Bechev. Erdoğan thrives on polarisation: the pattern of labelling those who do not support him as ‘traitors’ will continue for the foreseeable future. The relative success of the ‘No’ vote in the big urban centres must have hurt Erdoğan, but the near 50 per cent who opposed the current president at the ballot box on this occasion are not a homogenous group and it would be a surprise if a viable opposition candidate emerges

Russia and Turkey: Between Partnership and Rivalry

What brings Russia and Turkey together and how sustainable is their partnership given the multiple points of friction between them? This essay argues that Moscow and Ankara have learned to keep competition within bounds and to maximize shared interests. Recent examples of competition, such as around the conflicts in Idlib, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, and eastern Ukraine, suggest that the partnership forged by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will endure such frictions

The West needs to call Russia’s bluff in the Balkans

Some commentators have hinted at the imminence of another war in the Balkans, highlighting Russia’s supposed role in such an escalation. Dimitar Bechev argues that no such conflict is on the cards: Moscow is exploiting a vacuum left by the West’s retreating pull factor in the region, while autocrats in the Balkans are playing along. He writes that the EU should call Russia’s bluff and press countries in South East Europe into truly embracing the rule of law and fundamental freedoms