Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures.

For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR) from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT), and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates

Mediation analysis of gestational age, congenital heart defects, and infant birth-weight

Background In this study we assessed the mediation role of the gestational age on the effect of the infant’s congenital heart defects (CHD) on birth-weight. Methods We used secondary data from the Baltimore-Washington Infant Study (1981–1989). Mediation analysis was employed to investigate whether gestational age acted as a mediator of the association between CHD and reduced birth-weight. We estimated the mediated effect, the mediation proportion, and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) using several methods. Results There were 3362 CHD cases and 3564 controls in the dataset with mean birth-weight of 3071 (SD = 729) and 3353 (SD = 603) grams, respectively; the mean gestational age was 38.9 (SD = 2.7) and 39.6 (SD = 2.2) weeks, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, the estimated mediated effect by gestational age was 113.5 grams (95% CI, 92.4–134.2) and the mediation proportion was 40.7% (95% CI, 34.7%–46.6%), using the bootstrap approach. Conclusions Gestational age may account for about 41% of the overall effect of heart defects on reduced infant birth-weight. Improved prenatal care and other public health efforts that promote full term delivery, particularly targeting high-risk families and mothers known to be carrying a fetus with CHD, may therefore be expected to improve the birth-weight of these infants and their long term health

Progression of Electrocardiographic Abnormalities in Type 1 Diabetes During 16 Years of Follow‐up: The Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (EDIC) Study

Background The electrocardiogram (ECG) is an objective tool for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment. Methods and Results We evaluated distribution of ECG abnormalities and risk factors for developing new abnormalities in 1314 patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) from the Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (EDIC) study. Annual ECGs were centrally read. ECG abnormalities were classified as major and minor according to the Minnesota ECG Classification. At EDIC year 1 (baseline), 356 (27.1%) of the participants had at least 1 ECG abnormality (major or minor) whereas 26 (2%) had at least one major abnormality. During 16 years of follow‐up, 1016 (77.3%) participants developed at least 1 new ECG abnormality (major or minor), whereas 172 (13.1%) developed at least 1 new major abnormality. Independent risk factors for developing new major ECG abnormalities were: age, current smoking, increased systolic blood pressure, and higher glycosylated hemoglobin (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI]: 1.04 [1.02–1.06] per 1‐year increase, 1.75 [1.22–2.53], 1.03 [1.01–1.05] per 1 mm Hg increase, and 1.16 [1.04–1.29] per 10% increase, respectively). Independent risk factors for developing any new ECG abnormalities (major or minor) were age and systolic blood pressure (HR [95% CI]: 1.02 [1.01–1.03] per 1‐year increase and 1.01 [1.00–1.02] per 1 mm Hg increase, respectively). Conclusions New ECG abnormalities commonly occur in the course of T1D, consistent with the recognized increasing risk for CVD as patients age. Advanced age, increased systolic blood pressure, smoking, and higher HbA1c are independent risk factor for developing major ECG abnormalities, which underscores the importance of tight glucose control in T1D in addition to management of common CVD risk factors

Mediation analysis of gestational age, congenital heart defects, and infant birth-weight

Abstract Background In this study we assessed the mediation role of the gestational age on the effect of the infant’s congenital heart defects (CHD) on birth-weight. Methods We used secondary data from the Baltimore-Washington Infant Study (1981–1989). Mediation analysis was employed to investigate whether gestational age acted as a mediator of the association between CHD and reduced birth-weight. We estimated the mediated effect, the mediation proportion, and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) using several methods. Results There were 3362 CHD cases and 3564 controls in the dataset with mean birth-weight of 3071 (SD = 729) and 3353 (SD = 603) grams, respectively; the mean gestational age was 38.9 (SD = 2.7) and 39.6 (SD = 2.2) weeks, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, the estimated mediated effect by gestational age was 113.5 grams (95% CI, 92.4–134.2) and the mediation proportion was 40.7% (95% CI, 34.7%–46.6%), using the bootstrap approach. Conclusions Gestational age may account for about 41% of the overall effect of heart defects on reduced infant birth-weight. Improved prenatal care and other public health efforts that promote full term delivery, particularly targeting high-risk families and mothers known to be carrying a fetus with CHD, may therefore be expected to improve the birth-weight of these infants and their long term health

Significance of Epicardial and Intrathoracic Adipose Tissue Volume among Type 1 Diabetes Patients in the DCCT/EDIC: A Pilot Study.

Introduction Type 1 diabetes (T1DM) patients are at increased risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). This pilot study sought to evaluate the relationship between epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) and intra-thoracic adipose tissue (IAT) volumes and cardio-metabolic risk factors in T1DM. Method EAT/IAT volumes in 100 patients, underwent non-contrast cardiac computed tomography in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial /Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (DCCT/EDIC) study were measured by a certified reader. Fat was defined as pixels’ density of -30 to -190 Hounsfield Unit. The associations were assessed using–Pearson partial correlation and linear regression models adjusted for gender and age with inverse probability sample weighting. Results The weighted mean age was 43 years (range 32–57) and 53% were male. Adjusted for gender, Pearson correlation analysis showed a significant correlation between age and EAT/IAT volumes (both p Conclusion T1DM patients with greater BMI, WTH ratio, weighted HbA1c level, triglyceride level and AER≥300/ESRD had significantly larger EAT/IAT volumes. Larger sample size studies are recommended to evaluate independency

Biomarkers of tubulointerstitial damage and function in type 1 diabetes

Objective To evaluate biomarkers of renal tubulointerstitial damage and function in type 1 diabetes with and without diabetic kidney disease. Research design and methods Cross-sectional case-control study of Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications Study participants. Cases (N=43) had incident persistent estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) \u3c60 mL/min/1.73 m2 with urinary albumin excretion \u3e300 mg/24 hour. Controls (N=43) had persistent eGFR \u3e90 mL/min/1.73 m2 and urinary albumin excretion \u3c30 mg/24 hour. Urinary and plasma biomarkers reflecting tubular injury, inflammation, fibrosis, secretion, and synthetic function were measured from stored specimens collected at the first study visit with reduced eGFR (for case participants) or the corresponding study year (for control participants). Results Mean (SD) age was 51 (9) and 50 (8) years for case and control participants, and mean (SD) duration of diabetes was 30 (6) and 30 (5) years, respectively. Mean (SD) eGFR was 39 (14) and 103 (9) mL/min/1.73 m2 for case and control participants, and mean (SD) albumin excretion rate was 1978 (2914) and 10 (7) mg/day, respectively. Comparing cases with controls, significant differences were observed in each measured biomarker, including urine epidermal growth factor (mean 5.3 vs 21.2 μg/g creatinine for case vs control participants, respectively), urine monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (596 vs 123 ng/g creatinine), urine galectin-3 (168 vs 52 μg/g creatinine), plasma soluble tubular necrosis factor receptor-1 (3695 vs 1022 pg/mL), plasma galectin-3 (21.3 vs 11.0 ng/mL), urinary clearances of hippurate (70 vs 167 mL/min) and cinnamoylglycine (77 vs 317 mL/min), and plasma arginine-citrulline ratio (5.6 vs 7.7 μg/μg), each P\u3c0.001. Conclusions Marked abnormalities in biomarkers of kidney tubular injury, inflammation, fibrosis, secretion, and synthetic function accompany reduced eGFR and albuminuria in type 1 diabetes. Trial registration number NCT00360893, NCT00360815