Time Variation in Okun's Law: A Canada and U.S. Comparison

This article investigates the stability of Okun's law for Canada and the United States using a time varying parameter approach. Time variation is modeled as driftless random walks and is estimated using the median unbiased estimator approach developed by Stock and Watson (1998). Okun's law exhibits structural instability in both countries, with the sensitivity of the unemployment rate to movements in output growth increasing recently over time in both Canada and the United States.Business fluctuations and cycles; Labour markets

Financial Spillovers Across Countries: The Case of Canada and the United States

The authors investigate financial spillovers across countries with an emphasis on the effect of shocks to financial conditions in the United States on financial conditions and economic activity in Canada. These questions are addressed within a global vector autoregression model. The framework links individual country vector autoregression models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific foreign variables. The authors' results highlight the importance of financial variables in the transmission of shocks to real activity and financial conditions in the United States to Canada. First, they show that shocks to U.S. output are transmitted quickly to Canada, with important implications for financial conditions. Second, they show that the most important source of financial transmission between the United States and Canada is through shocks to U.S. equity prices. Financial transmission through movements in the quantity of U.S. credit is also important for Canada.Business fluctuations and cycles; Economic models; Financial stability; International topics

Upper extremity impairments in women with or without lymphedema following breast cancer treatment

Breast-cancer-related lymphedema affects ∼25% of breast cancer (BC) survivors and may impact use of the upper limb during activity. The purpose of this study is to compare upper extremity (UE) impairment and activity between women with and without lymphedema after BC treatment. 144 women post BC treatment completed demographic, symptom, and Disability of Arm-Shoulder-Hand (DASH) questionnaires. Objective measures included Purdue pegboard, finger-tapper, Semmes-Weinstein monofilaments, vibration perception threshold, strength, range of motion (ROM), and volume. Women with lymphedema had more lymph nodes removed (p < .001), more UE symptoms (p < .001), higher BMI (p = .041), and higher DASH scores (greater limitation) (p < .001). For all participants there was less strength (elbow flexion, wrist flexion, grip), less shoulder ROM, and decreased sensation at the medial upper arm (p < .05) in the affected UE. These differences were greater in women with lymphedema, particularly in shoulder abduction ROM (p < .05). Women with lymphedema had bilaterally less elbow flexion strength and shoulder ROM (p < .05). Past diagnosis of lymphedema, grip strength, shoulder abduction ROM, and number of comorbidities contributed to the variance in DASH scores (R 2 of 0.463, p < .001). UE impairments are found in women following treatment for BC. Women with lymphedema have greater UE impairment and limitation in activities than women without. Many of these impairments are amenable to prevention measures or treatment, so early detection by health care providers is essential

Bank of Canada Working Paper

Abstract This paper examines the relationship between aggregate consumer spending and credit availability in the United States. The author finds that consumer spending falls (rises) in response to a reduction (increase) in credit availability. Moreover, she provides a formal assessment of the possibility that credit availability is particularly important for consumer spending when it undergoes large changes. In this respect, she estimates a consumption function in which only large expansions and contractions in credit affect spending. She concludes that large changes in credit availability are particularly important for consumers' spending decisions. As should be expected, these periods tend to be associated with periods of high economic uncertainty. These results show that credit availability should be taken into account when modeling and forecasting consumer spending. JEL classification: E21, E27, E44, E51, E58 Bank classification: Credit and credit aggregates; Domestic demand and components; Recent economic and financial developments Résumé L'étude porte sur la relation entre les dépenses de consommation globales et la disponibilité du crédit aux États-Unis. L'auteure constate que les dépenses de consommation diminuent (augmentent) lorsque la disponibilité du crédit décroît (s'accroît). En outre, elle analyse de façon formelle la possibilité que la disponibilité du crédit, lorsque celle-ci varie fortement, soit particulièrement importante pour les dépenses de consommation. À cet égard, elle estime une fonction de consommation dans laquelle seuls les mouvements prononcés d'expansion ou de contraction du crédit agissent sur les dépenses. Elle conclut que les variations marquées de la disponibilité du crédit ont une importance particulière pour les décisions de dépense des consommateurs. Comme il était à prévoir, de telles variations sont généralement associées aux périodes de grande incertitude économique. Ces résultats montrent que la disponibilité du crédit devrait être prise en compte dans la modélisation des dépenses de consommation et l'établissement des prévisions connexes

A Financial Conditions Index for the United States

The financial crisis of 2007-09 has highlighted the importance of developments in financial conditions for real economic activity. The authors estimate the effect of current and past shocks to financial variables on U.S. GDP growth by constructing two growthbased financial conditions indexes (FCIs) that measure the contribution to quarterly (annualized) GDP growth from financial conditions. One FCI is constructed using a structural vector-error correction model and the other is constructed using a large-scale macroeconomic model. The authors' results suggest that financial factors subtracted around 5 percentage points from quarterly annualized real GDP growth in the United States in 2008Q4 and 2009Q1 and should subtract another 5 percentage points from growth in 2009Q2. Moreover, to assess the effect of financial shocks in terms of policy interest rate equivalent units, the authors convert the effect of financial developments on growth into the number of basis points by which the federal funds rate has been tightened. The authors show that the tightening of financial conditions since mid-2007 is equivalent to about 300 basis points of tightening in terms of the federal funds rate. Thus, the aggressive monetary easing undertaken by the Federal Reserve over the financial crisis has not been sufficient to offset the tightening of financial conditions. Finally, in a key contribution to the literature, the authors assess the relationship between financial shocks and real activity in the context of the zero lower bound. They find that the effect of the tightening of financial conditions on GDP growth in the current crisis may have been amplified by as much as 40 per cent due to the fact that policy interest rates reached the zero lower bound.Business fluctuations and cycles; Monetary conditions index; Monetary and financial indicators; Recent economic and financial developments

Exploring Human Services Resources for the Hmong Community in Eau Claire County

Color poster with text, maps, and images.The purpose of this study was to investigate the services and involvement of the Eau Claire Area Hmong Mutual Assistance Association in Eau Claire.University of Wisconsin--Eau Claire Office of Research and Sponsored Programs

Prospects for Global Current Account Rebalancing

The authors use the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model, a multi-country, multi-sector dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with an active banking system (the BoC-GEM-FIN), to study the evolution of global current account balances following the recent global financial crisis. More specifically, they use several shocks from the model to generate a simulated baseline scenario that mimics: (i) the initial, pre-crisis state of disequilibrium in global current account balances, and (ii) the effects of the crisis, including those of the policy responses undertaken worldwide. The authors find that a sufficient set of conditions and policies for a sustainable resolution of the global current account imbalances relies on three key elements: (i) a continuous upward adjustment of U.S. private savings, (ii) fiscal consolidation in advanced countries, and (iii) an orderly adjustment of exchange rates. These three criteria facilitate a gradual decline in the U.S. current account deficit going forward. A fourth key element, the implementation of policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand in emerging Asia, is needed to ensure that the counterpart of the decrease in the U.S. current account deficit is mainly a reduction in the surpluses of emerging Asia. Sensitivity analysis based on deviations from these conditions illustrates the factors behind the main results and the costs associated with the alternative scenarios considered.Balance of payments and components; Business fluctuations and cycles; International topics; Recent economic and financial developments

Getting the Most Bang from Your Volunteer Hour: Easy Assessments in the Dark Skies, Bright Kids Program

Dark Skies, Bright Kids! (DSBK) is an outreach organization that seeks to enhance elementary-level science literacy and encourage inquiry through fun, hands-on activities. DSBK was formed by, and is operated through, volunteer efforts from professional scientists at all career stages, e.g., from first-year undergraduate students to tenured professors. Although DSBK has amassed over 14,000 contact hours since 2009, there has been no formal evaluation of the programs impacts. Over the past year, DSBK introduced a large-scale, student-led internal assessments program with the systematic evaluation of student workbooks, volunteer surveys, and observations. While the data indicated broad-scale success for the program for both of its goals, it also revealed the organizational and educational practices that not only maximized student achievement, but also created the largest overall volunteer satisfaction with their time commitment. Here we describe DSBK in detail, summarize the student-led implementation of the assessments program, discuss how the results of the assessments have positively impacted our operations, and generalize these results for other scientist-led outreach efforts

PS2-07: Medication Use in Pregnancy and Birth Outcomes Program

Background/Aims: Our knowledge of safe medication use during pregnancy is limited, due primarily to the lack of rigorous studies evaluating birth outcomes associated with in utero exposure to medications. A collaborative research program, the Medication Use in Pregnancy and Birth Outcomes Program, between the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and researchers at the HMO Research Network Center for Education and Research in Therapeutics (CERT), Kaiser Permanente Northern and Southern California, and Vanderbilt University, aims to develop common, necessary data linkages to enable the conduct of multiple studies of medication use and outcomes in pregnancy across participating sites