Dissonance and decision-making mistakes in the age of risk

Scholars of public and foreign policy have emphasized the role of decision processes in the creation of policy failures and fiascos and have demonstrated the importance that psychological factors play in policy mistakes. Using Ulrich Beck's notion of world risk society and drawing on advances in our understanding of a key psychological factor central to decision-making pathologies – cognitive dissonance – this contribution explores the ways in which features of the risk era could alter important decision dynamics and increase decision-making mistakes. In combination with the catastrophic potential of world risk society, this would suggest an increase in the frequency of policy-making fiascos. Bridging the gap between the ‘macro’ conditions of globalization and the ‘micro’ processes of decision-making also challenges our conception of both the nature and sources of policy-making mistakes and suggests that our scholarly understanding of ‘decision-making mistakes’ may need rethinking.PostprintPeer reviewe

Quantitative approaches in coalition foreign policy : scope, content, process

This article surveys the quantitative literature in coalition foreign policy. Tracing its development back to what we call the ‘first generation studies’ in Democratic Peace research, we illustrate that its theoretical and methodological foundations distinguish this literature from its predecessors. We then overview the existing studies along three dimensions: the nature of the dependent variables, the content of the key explanatory variables, and the processes that identify and systematise the institutional factors that influence coalition foreign policy. Our suggestions for future research highlight some of the puzzles motivated by the findings of this literature and the promise of multi-method designs.PostprintPeer reviewe

Imerys: Tube Mill Optimization Project

The Tube Mill Optimization Project is in partnership with Imerys for Tube Mill 81 at their Marble Hill site in Georgia. Tube Mill 81 is a dry ball mill that operates 24/7 and makes an intermediary product for Plant 3. Tube Mill 81 needs quality improvement and a production rate increase to meet demand. Imerys’s quality specification is between a particle size of 12-18 microns and an acceptable production rate of 5 tons per hour. This project focuses on the development and implementation of three solutions: increase the amps on the separator to increase production, replace missing classifier blades in the separator to improve quality, and put new media balls in the tube mill to improve grinding efficiency. Before and after each change, product samples are analyzed to measure changes in quality in particle size (microns). A rate check shows the production in tons per hour (TPH). The baseline data analysis revealed the average product size at 41.5 amps is 13.86 microns and production is 3.84 TPH. After increasing the separator amps from 41.5 to 43, the production increased to 5.28 TPH. This is 1.44 TPH more and a 37.5% increase than the baseline results. This change is expected to yield 12,614.4 additional tons produced per year if it is kept at the higher amperage. The increase to 43 amps also shifted the average quality to 14.6 microns, an increase of 0.74 microns or a 5.34% increase. Though this measurement is larger than the baseline result, it is still within the 12 - 18 micron acceptable range. The next steps for this solution include increasing the separator amperage in 2 amp increments until the quality leaves the acceptable quality zone or the fan limit curve threshold is surpassed and the production rate decreases. The classifier blades were ordered and installed to help improve the quality. Quotes for the media balls have been gathered and a decision will be made on the best solution. The addition of fresh media is expected to increase grinding efficiency and production rate. Overall, the team helped increase production and identified ways to help improve the quality

An Examination on NFL Time Management Efficiency

This paper analyzes the factors contributing to an NFL team’s offensive ability to efficiently reach field goal range during the final six minutes of regulation. The data is constructed from 2009 - 2011 NFL regular season games examining various in-game factors that affect an offensive unit’s total time taken to reach field goal range. Through regression analysis, the most significant factors discovered affecting total time were the impact of starting time, the number of offensive timeouts used, and the number of offensive timeouts taken. These findings could alter in-game coaching decisions for an NFL head coach

Foreign policy in the fourth dimension (FP4D) : locating time in decision-making

Whilst International Relations scholarship has taken a ‘temporal turn’, foreign policy decision-making (FPDM) research reveals little explicit theoretical attention to time. Time is an important aspect of several prominent frameworks, yet these either fail to make explicit their conception of time or fail to reflect upon the implications of their temporal assumptions and understandings. We address this lacuna by developing a timing perspective on foreign policy decision-making. We present the central features of this perspective, including the nature of timing agency, temporal motivations, the timing of decision-making processes, and timing as a foreign policy tool. Illustrated with empirical examples, we show how timing plays out in foreign policy decision-making and helps to shed new light on our understanding of crises and ways decision-makers may grapple with them. We conclude by considering the theoretical and empirical benefits and challenges of bridging FPDM with theoretical approaches to time.PostprintPeer reviewe

British foreign policy after Brexit:Losing Europe and finding a role

British foreign policy stands at a turning point following the 2016 ‘Brexit’ referendum. Drawing on role theory, we trace the UK’s efforts to establish new foreign policy roles as it interacts with concerned international actors. We find that the pro-Brexit desire to ‘take back control’ has not yet translated into a cogent foreign policy direction. In its efforts to avoid adopting the role of isolate, the UK has projected a disoriented foreign policy containing elements of partially incompatible roles such as great power, global trading state, leader of the Commonwealth, regional partner to the EU, and faithful ally to the US. The international community has, through processes of socialization and alter-casting, largely rejected these efforts. These role conflicts between the UK and international actors, as well as conflicts among its different role aspirations, has pressed UK policies towards its unwanted isolationist role, potentially shaping its long-term foreign policy orientation post-Brexit.PostprintPeer reviewe

NFL Time Management: The Role of Timeouts in End-Game Scenarios

Time management is an important part of game strategy in the National Football League (NFL), especially in the second half of a game that could be decided by a field goal. This paper determines the in-game factors that contribute to an NFL offensive team’s total time taken to reach field goal range during the final six minutes of regulation in games that are within three points or less. Using data constructed from 2009-2011 NFL regular season games, we find that neither quarterback rating nor the number of All-Pro players affect the speed at a which a team reaches field goal range. However, counter to conventional wisdom, using an offensive timeout during the final drive of the game extends the time it takes to reach field goal range by 22 seconds. On the other hand, the mere availability of an offensive timeout decreases the time it takes to reach field goal range by 19 seconds. Both of these effects are found in games where the offense is behind by 1, 2, or 3 points, but not in tied games. These findings inform in-game coaching decisions for an NFL head coach

To be or not to be a state? Role contestation in the debate over Scottish Independence

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