On the efficient determination of optimal Bayesian experimental designs using ABC: a case study in optimal observation of epidemics

We present a new method for determining optimal Bayesian experimental designs, which we refer to as ABCdE. ABCdE uses Approximate Bayesian Computation to calculate the utility of possible designs. For problems with a low-dimensional design space, it evaluates the designs’ utility in less computation time compared to existing methods. We apply ABCdE to stochastic epidemic models. Optimal designs evaluated using ABCdE are compared to those evaluated using existing methods for the stochastic death and susceptible–infectious (SI) models. We present the Bayesian optimal experimental designs for the susceptible–infectious–susceptible (SIS) model using ABCdE.David J. Price, Nigel G. Bean, Joshua V. Ross, Jonathan Tuk

Kaluza-Klein Cosmology With Modified Holographic Dark Energy

We investigate the compact Kaluza-Klein cosmology in which modified holographic dark energy is interacting with dark matter. Using this scenario, we evaluate equation of state parameter as well as equation of evolution of the modified holographic dark energy. Further, it is shown that the generalized second law of thermodynamics holds without any constraint.Comment: 13 pages, accepted for publication in Gen. Relativ. Gravi

On the growth of perturbations in interacting dark energy and dark matter fluids

The covariant generalizations of the background dark sector coupling suggested in G. Mangano, G. Miele and V. Pettorino, Mod. Phys. Lett. A 18, 831 (2003) are considered. The evolution of perturbations is studied with detailed attention to interaction rate that is proportional to the product of dark matter and dark energy densities. It is shown that some classes of models with coupling of this type do not suffer from early time instabilities in strong coupling regime.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures. v3: minor changes, typos fixe

A Statistical Approach to Multifield Inflation: Many-field Perturbations Beyond Slow Roll

We study multifield contributions to the scalar power spectrum in an ensemble of six-field inflationary models obtained in string theory. We identify examples in which inflation occurs by chance, near an approximate inflection point, and we compute the primordial perturbations numerically, both exactly and using an array of truncated models. The scalar mass spectrum and the number of fluctuating fields are accurately described by a simple random matrix model. During the approach to the inflection point, bending trajectories and violations of slow roll are commonplace, and 'many-field' effects, in which three or more fields influence the perturbations, are often important. However, in a large fraction of models consistent with constraints on the tilt the signatures of multifield evolution occur on unobservably large scales. Our scenario is a concrete microphysical realization of quasi-single-field inflation, with scalar masses of order $H$, but the cubic and quartic couplings are typically too small to produce detectable non-Gaussianity. We argue that our results are characteristic of a broader class of models arising from multifield potentials that are natural in the Wilsonian sense.Comment: 39 pages, 17 figures. References added. Matches version published in JCA

Inflation with a constant ratio of scalar and tensor perturbation amplitudes

The single scalar field inflationary models that lead to scalar and tensor perturbation spectra with amplitudes varying in direct proportion to one another are reconstructed by solving the Stewart-Lyth inverse problem to next-to-leading order in the slow-roll approximation. The potentials asymptote at high energies to an exponential form, corresponding to power law inflation, but diverge from this model at low energies, indicating that power law inflation is a repellor in this case. This feature implies that a fine-tuning of initial conditions is required if such models are to reproduce the observations. The required initial conditions might be set through the eternal inflation mechanism. If this is the case, it will imply that the spectral indices must be nearly constant, making the underlying model observationally indistinguishable from power law inflation.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures. Major changes to the Introduction following referee's comments. One figure added. Some other minor changes. No conclusion was modifie

Magnetic flux jumps in textured Bi2Sr2CaCu2O(8+d)

Magnetic flux jumps in textured Bi2Sr2CaCu2O(8+d) have been studied by means of magnetization measurements in the temperature range between 1.95 K and Tc, in an external magnetic field up to 9 T. Flux jumps were found in the temperature range 1.95 K - 6 K, with the external magnetic field parallel to the c axis of the investigated sample. The effect of sample history on magnetic flux jumping was studied and it was found to be well accounted for by the available theoretical models. The magnetic field sweep rate strongly influences the flux jumping and this effect was interpreted in terms of the influence of both flux creep and the thermal environment of the sample. Strong flux creep was found in the temperature and magnetic field range where flux jumps occur suggesting a relationship between the two. The heat exchange conditions between the sample and the experimental environment also influence the flux jumping behavior. Both these effects stabilize the sample against flux instabilities, and this stabilizing effect increases with decreasing magnetic field sweep rate. Demagnetizing effects are also shown to have a significant influence on flux jumping.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, RevTeX4, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Combined constraints on modified Chaplygin gas model from cosmological observed data: Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach

We use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to investigate a global constraints on the modified Chaplygin gas (MCG) model as the unification of dark matter and dark energy from the latest observational data: the Union2 dataset of type supernovae Ia (SNIa), the observational Hubble data (OHD), the cluster X-ray gas mass fraction, the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO), and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. In a flat universe, the constraint results for MCG model are, $\Omega_{b}h^{2}=0.02263^{+0.00184}_{-0.00162}$ ($1\sigma$) $^{+0.00213}_{-0.00195}$ $(2\sigma)$, $B_{s}=0.7788^{+0.0736}_{-0.0723}$ ($1\sigma$) $^{+0.0918}_{-0.0904}$ $(2\sigma)$, $\alpha=0.1079^{+0.3397}_{-0.2539}$ ($1\sigma$) $^{+0.4678}_{-0.2911}$ $(2\sigma)$, $B=0.00189^{+0.00583}_{-0.00756}$ ($1\sigma$) $^{+0.00660}_{-0.00915}$ $(2\sigma)$, and $H_{0}=70.711^{+4.188}_{-3.142}$ ($1\sigma$) $^{+5.281}_{-4.149}$ $(2\sigma)$.Comment: 12 pages, 1figur

Constraints on coupling constant between dark energy and dark matter

We have investigated constraints on the coupling between dark matter and the interacting Chaplygin gas. Our results indicate that the coupling constant $c$ between these two entities can take arbitrary values, which can be either positive or negative, thus giving arbitrary freedom to the inter-conversion between Chaplygin gas and dark matter. Thus our results indicate that the restriction $0<c<1$ on the coupling constant occurs as a very special case. Our analysis also supports the existence of phantom energy under certain conditions on the coupling constant.Comment: 16 Pages, 3 figure

Observational constraint on generalized Chaplygin gas model

We investigate observational constraints on the generalized Chaplygin gas (GCG) model as the unification of dark matter and dark energy from the latest observational data: the Union SNe Ia data, the observational Hubble data, the SDSS baryon acoustic peak and the five-year WMAP shift parameter. It is obtained that the best fit values of the GCG model parameters with their confidence level are $A_{s}=0.73^{+0.06}_{-0.06}$ ($1\sigma$) $^{+0.09}_{-0.09}$ $(2\sigma)$, $\alpha=-0.09^{+0.15}_{-0.12}$ ($1\sigma$) $^{+0.26}_{-0.19}$ $(2\sigma)$. Furthermore in this model, we can see that the evolution of equation of state (EOS) for dark energy is similar to quiessence, and its current best-fit value is $w_{0de}=-0.96$ with the $1\sigma$ confidence level $-0.91\geq w_{0de}\geq-1.00$.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

Models of quintessence coupled to the electromagnetic field and the cosmological evolution of alpha

We study the change of the effective fine structure constant in the cosmological models of a scalar field with a non-vanishing coupling to the electromagnetic field. Combining cosmological data and terrestrial observations we place empirical constraints on the size of the possible coupling and explore a large class of models that exhibit tracking behavior. The change of the fine structure constant implied by the quasar absorption spectra together with the requirement of tracking behavior impose a lower bound of the size of this coupling. Furthermore, the transition to the quintessence regime implies a narrow window for this coupling around $10^{-5}$ in units of the inverse Planck mass. We also propose a non-minimal coupling between electromagnetism and quintessence which has the effect of leading only to changes of alpha determined from atomic physics phenomena, but leaving no observable consequences through nuclear physics effects. In doing so we are able to reconcile the claimed cosmological evidence for a changing fine structure constant with the tight constraints emerging from the Oklo natural nuclear reactor.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures, RevTex, new references adde