Geographical distribution and prevalence of podoconiosis in Rwanda: a cross-sectional country-wide survey

Background Podoconiosis is a type of tropical lymphoedema that causes massive swelling of the lower limbs. The disease is associated with both economic insecurity, due to long-term morbidity-related loss of productivity, and intense social stigma. Reliable and detailed data on the prevalence and distribution of podoconiosis are scarce. We aimed to fill this data gap by doing a nationwide community-based study to estimate the number of cases throughout Rwanda. Methods We did a population-based cross-sectional survey to determine the national prevalence of podoconiosis. A podoconiosis case was defined as a person with bilateral, asymmetrical lymphoedema of the lower limb present for more than 1 year, who tested negative for Wuchereria bancrofti antigen (determined by Filariasis Test Strip) and specific IgG4 (determined by Wb123 test), and had a history of any of the associated clinical signs and symptoms. All adults (aged ≥15 years) who resided in any of the 30 districts of Rwanda for 10 or more years were invited at the household level to participate. Participants were interviewed and given a physical examination before Filariasis Test Strip and Wb123 testing. We fitted a binomial mixed model combining the site-level podoconiosis prevalence with continuous environmental covariates to estimate prevalence at unsampled locations. We report estimates of cases by district combining our mean predicted prevalence and a contemporary gridded map of estimated population density. Findings Between June 12, and July 28, 2017, 1 360 612 individuals—719730 (53%) women and 640 882 (47%) men— were screened from 80 clusters in 30 districts across Rwanda. 1143 individuals with lymphoedema were identified, of whom 914 (80%) had confirmed podoconiosis, based on the standardised diagnostic algorithm. The overall prevalence of podoconiosis was 68·5 per 100000 people (95% CI 41·0–109·7). Podoconiosis was found to be widespread in Rwanda. District-level prevalence ranged from 28·3 per 100 000 people (16·8–45·5, Nyarugenge, Kigali province) to 119·2 per 100 000 people (59·9–216·2, Nyamasheke, West province). Prevalence was highest in districts in the North and West provinces: Nyamasheke, Rusizi, Musanze, Nyabihu, Nyaruguru, Burera, and Rubavu. We estimate that 6429 (95% CI 3938–10088) people live with podoconiosis across Rwanda. Interpretation Despite relatively low prevalence, podoconiosis is widely distributed geographically throughout Rwanda. Many patients are likely to be undiagnosed and morbidity management is scarce. Targeted interventions through a well coordinated health system response are needed to manage those affected. Our findings should inform national level planning, monitoring, and implementation of interventions

Parasite associations predict infection risk: incorporating co-infections in predictive models for neglected tropical diseases

Background Schistosomiasis and infection by soil-transmitted helminths are some of the world’s most prevalent neglected tropical diseases. Infection by more than one parasite (co-infection) is common and can contribute to clinical morbidity in children. Geostatistical analyses of parasite infection data are key for developing mass drug administration strategies, yet most methods ignore co-infections when estimating risk. Infection status for multiple parasites can act as a useful proxy for data-poor individual-level or environmental risk factors while avoiding regression dilution bias. Conditional random fields (CRF) is a multivariate graphical network method that opens new doors in parasite risk mapping by (i) predicting co-infections with high accuracy; (ii) isolating associations among parasites; and (iii) quantifying how these associations change across landscapes. Methods We built a spatial CRF to estimate infection risks for Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, hookworms (Ancylostoma duodenale and Necator americanus) and Schistosoma mansoni using data from a national survey of Rwandan schoolchildren. We used an ensemble learning approach to generate spatial predictions by simulating from the CRF’s posterior distribution with a multivariate boosted regression tree that captured non-linear relationships between predictors and covariance in infection risks. This CRF ensemble was compared against single parasite gradient boosted machines to assess each model’s performance and prediction uncertainty. Results Parasite co-infections were common, with 19.57% of children infected with at least two parasites. The CRF ensemble achieved higher predictive power than single-parasite models by improving estimates of co-infection prevalence at the individual level and classifying schools into World Health Organization treatment categories with greater accuracy. The CRF uncovered important environmental and demographic predictors of parasite infection probabilities. Yet even after capturing demographic and environmental risk factors, the presences or absences of other parasites were strong predictors of individual-level infection risk. Spatial predictions delineated high-risk regions in need of anthelminthic treatment interventions, including areas with higher than expected co-infection prevalence. Conclusions Monitoring studies routinely screen for multiple parasites, yet statistical models generally ignore this multivariate data when assessing risk factors and designing treatment guidelines. Multivariate approaches can be instrumental in the global effort to reduce and eventually eliminate neglected helminth infections in developing countries

Geographical distribution and prevalence of podoconiosis in Rwanda: a cross-sectional country-wide survey

BACKGROUND:Podoconiosis is a type of tropical lymphoedema that causes massive swelling of the lower limbs. The disease is associated with both economic insecurity, due to long-term morbidity-related loss of productivity, and intense social stigma. Reliable and detailed data on the prevalence and distribution of podoconiosis are scarce. We aimed to fill this data gap by doing a nationwide community-based study to estimate the number of cases throughout Rwanda. METHODS:We did a population-based cross-sectional survey to determine the national prevalence of podoconiosis. A podoconiosis case was defined as a person with bilateral, asymmetrical lymphoedema of the lower limb present for more than 1 year, who tested negative for Wuchereria bancrofti antigen (determined by Filariasis Test Strip) and specific IgG4 (determined by Wb123 test), and had a history of any of the associated clinical signs and symptoms. All adults (aged ≥15 years) who resided in any of the 30 districts of Rwanda for 10 or more years were invited at the household level to participate. Participants were interviewed and given a physical examination before Filariasis Test Strip and Wb123 testing. We fitted a binomial mixed model combining the site-level podoconiosis prevalence with continuous environmental covariates to estimate prevalence at unsampled locations. We report estimates of cases by district combining our mean predicted prevalence and a contemporary gridded map of estimated population density. FINDINGS:Between June 12, and July 28, 2017, 1 360 612 individuals-719 730 (53%) women and 640 882 (47%) men-were screened from 80 clusters in 30 districts across Rwanda. 1143 individuals with lymphoedema were identified, of whom 914 (80%) had confirmed podoconiosis, based on the standardised diagnostic algorithm. The overall prevalence of podoconiosis was 68·5 per 100 000 people (95% CI 41·0-109·7). Podoconiosis was found to be widespread in Rwanda. District-level prevalence ranged from 28·3 per 100 000 people (16·8-45·5, Nyarugenge, Kigali province) to 119·2 per 100 000 people (59·9-216·2, Nyamasheke, West province). Prevalence was highest in districts in the North and West provinces: Nyamasheke, Rusizi, Musanze, Nyabihu, Nyaruguru, Burera, and Rubavu. We estimate that 6429 (95% CI 3938-10 088) people live with podoconiosis across Rwanda. INTERPRETATION:Despite relatively low prevalence, podoconiosis is widely distributed geographically throughout Rwanda. Many patients are likely to be undiagnosed and morbidity management is scarce. Targeted interventions through a well coordinated health system response are needed to manage those affected. Our findings should inform national level planning, monitoring, and implementation of interventions. FUNDING:Wellcome Trust