Definitions and Measures of ICT Impact on Growth: What is Really at Stake?

Many innovations have been introduced in national accounts in order to better gauge the information and communication technologies (ICT) diffusion impact: new ICT definitions; recognition of business and government software expenditures as fixed investment; hedonic price index. Nevertheless, there still does not exist any clear consensus about the magnitude of the ICT impact on growth. Our aim is to propose some explanations of this relative failure and also show that the debate should not be exclusively centered on quantitative methods. To this end, we take a close look at the two main questions concerning the debate surrounding the measure of the ICT impact: 1) Are there any substantial total factor productivity (TFP) gains generated by ICT diffusion or is it only a classic story of capital deepening increase ? 2) If there are indeed TFP gains, are they limited to ICT producers, as Robert J.Gordon claims, or is there any diffusion to ICT users ? The answer to the first question is really important only if it determines the length and the extent of an eventual growth cycle impulsed by ICT. The possibility that productivity gains mainly due to capital deepening generate strong and durable growth has been theoritically demonstrated by Greenwood and Jovanovic (1998), thanks to a vintage capital model. We precise the conditions under which this result can be obtained and discuss their empirical relevance. According to this approach, the true debate concerns the durability of the present technological shock, instead of its capacity to generate an autonomous technical progress. The answer to the second question is crucial because it could guide industrial policy choices. If TFP gains are limited to ICT producers, should a country always be an ICT producer, or will it anyway grow at a strong pace thanks to the fall of ICT prices ? The relevance of this economic debate is unfortunately poised by the shortcomings of available statistical tools. On one hand, the distinction between ICT users and producers is purely discretionary. On the other hand, TFP measure is completely distorted by the method used to evaluate the value of capital (cost-based prices against adjusted-quality prices). That is why we argue that the international diffusion of growth gains due to ICT essentially depends on the capacity of ICT producers' countries to stay in a rent keeping situation. The text is divided into two parts. The first one first makes a quick assessment of the adaptation of american national accounts to the " new economy ", and then underlines the limits of these changes. The second one shows that the economic debate on the importance of TFP gains acceleration and where they occur, although more complex because of these limits, can quite ignore them thanks to the implications of some endogeneous growth and international trade models.ICT; multifactor productivity; national accounts; hedonic prices

The Aftermath of the "New Economy" Bust : a Case Study of Five OECD Countries

Few things have been said about the nature of the aftermath of the "new economy" bust. This paper aims to add to the debate. Our study focuses on five OECD countries: the United States, Ireland and Finland for their obvious status of leader ICT countries; the Netherlands for their similarities with the above mentioned countries and France as a national reference. For a better understanding of how each country has been performing since the Internet bubble burst, we first describe the importance of the ICT sector in these countries through a set of variables: the contribution of the ICT sector to GDP growth and productivity growth; the surge in information processing equipment and software investment; the contribution of the ICT sector to jobs growth and the ICT share in foreign trade and direct investment. We then describe the timing of the downturn in terms of synchronization between the countries and in terms of adjustment of macroeconomic variables. The ICT sector has been strongly hit by the correction of the excesses of the sunnier days during the second half of the nineties, and is still restructuring. But its growth potential is also still high.New Economy; ICT; Productivity

Le contre-choc de la « nouvelle économie » : Une étude de cas sur cinq pays de l’OCDE

Cet article vise à animer le débat sur les suites du retournement du secteur des technologies de l’information et de la communication. Il se focalise sur cinq pays de l’OCDE : les États-Unis, l’Irlande, la Finlande, les Pays-Bas, pour leur position dominante dans ce domaine, et la France comme référence nationale. Chaque pays affiche une spécialisation particulière. Il s’agit de comprendre dans quelle mesure cela peut expliquer la plus ou moins grande résistance de chaque économie au retournement du secteur des technologies de l’information. L’impression générale est que le ralentissement américain est resté modéré, grâce à la combinaison de deux éléments : la résistance des gains de productivité et le dynamisme persistant des dépenses des ménages, compensant une partie de la chute de l’investissement productif. La Finlande, la France, l’Irlande et les Pays-Bas ont été, à première vue, au moins autant affectés que les États-Unis en termes d’infléchissement de la croissance entre 2000 et 2001. Pour autant, la nouvelle économie n’est pas dépassée.Few things have been said about the aftermath of the “new economy” bust. This paper examines the experience of five OECD countries: the United States, Ireland, Finland, the Netherlands because they are leading ICT countries, and France as a national reference. To better understand how each country has been performing since the Internet bubble burst, we first describe the importance of the ICT sector in these countries through a set of variables underlining the role of ICT in each economy. We then describe the timing and the nature of the downturn, focusing primarily on the United States because of its leading role. The ICT sector has been strongly hit and is still restructuring. Nonetheless, its growth potential remains still high

Le contre-choc de la « nouvelle économie »

Few things have been said about the aftermath of the “new economy” bust. This paper examines the experience of five OECD countries: the United States, Ireland, Finland, the Netherlands because they are leading ICT countries, and France as a national reference. To better understand how each country has been performing since the Internet bubble burst, we first describe the importance of the ICT sector in these countries through a set of variables underlining the role of ICT in each economy. We then describe the timing and the nature of the downturn, focusing primarily on the United States because of its leading role. The ICT sector has been strongly hit and is still restructuring. Nonetheless, its growth potential remains still high. Cet article vise à animer le débat sur les suites du retournement du secteur des technologies de l’information et de la communication. Il se focalise sur cinq pays de l’OCDE : les États-Unis, l’Irlande, la Finlande, les Pays-Bas, pour leur position dominante dans ce domaine, et la France comme référence nationale. Chaque pays affiche une spécialisation particulière. Il s’agit de comprendre dans quelle mesure cela peut expliquer la plus ou moins grande résistance de chaque économie au retournement du secteur des technologies de l’information. L’impression générale est que le ralentissement américain est resté modéré, grâce à la combinaison de deux éléments : la résistance des gains de productivité et le dynamisme persistant des dépenses des ménages, compensant une partie de la chute de l’investissement productif. La Finlande, la France, l’Irlande et les Pays-Bas ont été, à première vue, au moins autant affectés que les États-Unis en termes d’infléchissement de la croissance entre 2000 et 2001. Pour autant, la nouvelle économie n’est pas dépassée.

Plus-values, consommation et épargne – Une estimation de l’effet richesse aux Etats-Unis et au Royaume-Uni.

Cette publication n'a pas de résumé

politique budgétaire américaine sous la présidence Clinton : un rêve de cigale.

Cette publication n'a pas de résumé

excédents budgétaires américains : origine et perspectives.

Cette publication n'a pas de résumé

Débat sur les perspectives économiques à court terme du 16 Octobre 2003.

Cette publication n'a pas de résumé

certain décalage : Perspectives 1999-2000 pour l'économie mondiale.

Cette publication n'a pas de résumé

un nuage : perspectives 1999-2000 pour l'économie mondiale.

Cette publication n'a pas de résumé