The Swing Voter’s Curse in the Laboratory

This paper reports the first laboratory study of the swing voter’s curse and provides insights on the larger theoretical and empirical literature on "pivotal voter" models. Our experiment controls for different information levels of voters, as well as the size of the electorate, the distribution of preferences, and other theoretically relevant parameters. The design varies the share of partisan voters and the prior belief about a payoff relevant state of the world. Our results support the equilibrium predictions of the Feddersen-Pesendorfer model, and clearly reject the notion that voters in the laboratory use naive decision-theoretic strategies. The voters act as if they are aware of the swing voter’s curse and adjust their behavior to compensate. While the compensation is not complete and there is some heterogeneity in individual behavior, we find that aggregate outcomes, such as efficiency, turnout, and margin of victory, closely track the theoretical predictions

T2 lesion location really matters: a 10 year follow-up study in primary progressive multiple sclerosis

Objectives: Prediction of long term clinical outcome in patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) using imaging has important clinical implications, but remains challenging. We aimed to determine whether spatial location of T2 and T1 brain lesions predicts clinical progression during a 10-year follow-up in PPMS. Methods: Lesion probability maps of the T2 and T1 brain lesions were generated using the baseline scans of 80 patients with PPMS who were clinically assessed at baseline and then after 1, 2, 5 and 10 years. For each patient, the time (in years) taken before bilateral support was required to walk (time to event (TTE)) was used as a measure of progression rate. The probability of each voxel being ‘lesional’ was correlated with TTE, adjusting for age, gender, disease duration, centre and spinal cord cross sectional area, using a multiple linear regression model. To identify the best, independent predictor of progression, a Cox regression model was used. Results: A significant correlation between a shorter TTE and a higher probability of a voxel being lesional on T2 scans was found in the bilateral corticospinal tract and superior longitudinal fasciculus, and in the right inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus (p<0.05). The best predictor of progression rate was the T2 lesion load measured along the right inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus (p=0.016, hazard ratio 1.00652, 95% CI 1.00121 to 1.01186). Conclusion: Our results suggest that the location of T2 brain lesions in the motor and associative tracts is an important contributor to the progression of disability in PPMS, and is independent of spinal cord involvement

Jury Patriotism: The Jury System Should be Improved for Texans Called to Serve.

Many citizens seem to embrace the jury system, so long as they do not have to participate. The reason for this is not that most citizens are “un-American” but rather the burden jury duty imposes on potential jurors. Texans, in general, continue to overwhelmingly support the jury system. Yet, many citizens fail to appear for jury duty when summoned or strive to get out of jury duty after entering the courthouse. Most of these individuals do not lack a sense of civic duty. Rather, they are discouraged from jury service due to the hardship and headache imposed by an antiquated system that does not provide adequate financial compensation for jurors leaves little or no flexibility as to the dates of service and may involve unnecessary time in a waiting room. Moreover, the loosely defined standard for an excuse from service and the lack of a sufficient deterrent for ignoring a jury summons provides many citizens with an easy way to escape jury duty. The Jury Patriotism Act developed by the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) would break down each of the barriers frustrating jury service in Texas. Under ALEC, an individual\u27s failure to appear for jury service would be punishable as a misdemeanor, a threat sufficient to cause one to pause before ignoring a jury summons. This penalty should communicate to jurors the importance of jury service and notify them that shirking one’s civic obligation to serve will be criminally punished as a misdemeanor. Additionally, jurors will avoid spending time in a courthouse waiting room with a one-day/one-trial system. They would also receive better compensation. Through these reforms, Texans, regardless of income or occupation, will be better able to fulfill their patriotic duty to serve on a jury

Jury Patriotism: The Jury System Should be Improved for Texans Called to Serve.

Many citizens seem to embrace the jury system, so long as they do not have to participate. The reason for this is not that most citizens are “un-American” but rather the burden jury duty imposes on potential jurors. Texans, in general, continue to overwhelmingly support the jury system. Yet, many citizens fail to appear for jury duty when summoned or strive to get out of jury duty after entering the courthouse. Most of these individuals do not lack a sense of civic duty. Rather, they are discouraged from jury service due to the hardship and headache imposed by an antiquated system that does not provide adequate financial compensation for jurors leaves little or no flexibility as to the dates of service and may involve unnecessary time in a waiting room. Moreover, the loosely defined standard for an excuse from service and the lack of a sufficient deterrent for ignoring a jury summons provides many citizens with an easy way to escape jury duty. The Jury Patriotism Act developed by the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) would break down each of the barriers frustrating jury service in Texas. Under ALEC, an individual\u27s failure to appear for jury service would be punishable as a misdemeanor, a threat sufficient to cause one to pause before ignoring a jury summons. This penalty should communicate to jurors the importance of jury service and notify them that shirking one’s civic obligation to serve will be criminally punished as a misdemeanor. Additionally, jurors will avoid spending time in a courthouse waiting room with a one-day/one-trial system. They would also receive better compensation. Through these reforms, Texans, regardless of income or occupation, will be better able to fulfill their patriotic duty to serve on a jury

Individual mapping of innate immune cell activation is a candidate marker of patient-specific trajectories of disability worsening in Multiple Sclerosis

Objective: To develop a novel approach to generate individual maps of white matter (WM) innate immune cell activation using 18F-DPA-714 translocator protein (TSPO) positron emission tomography (PET), and to explore the relationship between these maps and individual trajectories of disability worsening in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods: Patients with MS (n = 37), whose trajectories of disability worsening over the 2 years preceding study entry were calculated, and healthy controls (n = 19) underwent magnetic resonance magnetic and 18F-DPA-714 PET. A threshold of significant activation of 18F-DPA-714 binding was calculated with a voxel-wise randomized permutation-based comparison between patients and controls, and used to classify each WM voxel in patients as characterized by a significant activation of innate immune cells (DPA+) or not. Individual maps of innate immune cell activation in the WM were employed to calculate the extent of activation in WM regions-of-interests and to classify each WM lesion as "DPA-active", "DPA-inactive" or "unclassified". Results: Compared with the WM of healthy controls, patients with MS had a significantly higher percentage of DPA+ voxels in the normal-appearing WM, (NAWM in patients=24.9±9.7%; WM in controls=14.0±7.8%, p<0.001). In patients with MS, the percentage of DPA+ voxels showed a significant increase from NAWM, to perilesional areas, T2 hyperintense lesions and T1 hypointense lesions (38.1±13.5%, 45.0±17.9%, and 51.9±22.9%, respectively, p<0.001). Among the 1379 T2 lesions identified, 512 were defined as DPA-active and 258 as DPA-inactive. A higher number of lesions classified as DPA-active (OR=1.13, P = 0.009), a higher percentage of DPA+ voxels in the NAWM (OR=1.16, P = 0.009) and in T1-spin-echo lesions (OR=1.06, P = 0.036), were significantly associated with a retrospective more severe clinical trajectory in patients with MS. Conclusion: A more severe trajectory of disability worsening in MS is associated with an innate immune cells activation inside and around WM lesions. 18F-DPA-714 PET may provide a promising biomarker to identify patients at risk of severe clinical trajectory

Relationship between sleep and exercise as colorectal cancer survivors transition off treatment

Purpose The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between exercise and sleep disturbance in a sample of individuals diagnosed with stage I, II, and III colorectal cancer (CRC) as patients transitioned off first-line treatment. We also sought to identify heterogeneity in the relationship between sleep disturbance and exercise. Methods Data were obtained from the MY-Health study, a community-based observational study of adults diagnosed with cancer. Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System® (PROMIS) measures (e.g., PROMIS Sleep) were administered, and participants self-reported demographics, comorbidities, cancer treatment, and exercise. Regression mixture and multiple regression models were used to evaluate the relationship between sleep disturbance and exercise cross-sectionally at an average of 10 months after diagnosis, and the change in sleep disturbance over a 7-month period, from approximately 10 to 17 months post-diagnosis. Results Patients whose exercise was categorized as likely at or above American College of Sports Medicine’s guidelines did not report statistically better sleep quality compared to patients who were classified as not active. However, retirement (B = − 2.4), anxiety (B = 0.21), and fatigue (B = 0.24) had statistically significant relationships with sleep disturbance (p < 0.05). Increase in exercise was not significantly associated with a decrease in sleep disturbance. No statistical heterogeneity was revealed in the relationship between sleep and exercise. Conclusions Further prospective research using an objective measure of exercise is warranted to confirm or refute the nature of the relationship between exercise and sleep disturbance in individuals diagnosed with CRC transitioning off first-line treatment