COVID-19 and hospitalizations for SARI in Brazil: a comparison up to the 12th epidemiological week of 2020.

Surveillance of the severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) in Brazil aims to characterize the circulation of the Influenza A and B viruses in hospitalized cases and deaths, having been expanded in 2012 to include other respiratory viruses. COVID-19 was detected in Brazil for the time in the 9th epidemiological week of 2020, and the test for the SARS-CoV-2 virus was included in the surveillance protocol starting in the 12th epidemiological week. This study's objective was to investigate the pattern of hospitalizations for SARI in Brazil since the entry of SARS-CoV-2, comparing the temporal and age profiles and laboratory results to the years 2010 through 2019. In 2020, hospitalizations for SARI, compiled from the date of the first confirmed case of COVID-19 up to the 12th week, exceeded the numbers observed during the same period in each of the previous 10 years. The age bracket over 60 years was the most heavily affected, at higher than historical levels. There was a considerable increase in negative laboratory tests, suggesting circulation of a different virus from those already present in the panel. We concluded that the increase in hospitalizations for SARI, the lack of specific information on the etiological agent, and the predominance of cases among the elderly during the same period in which there was an increase in the number of new cases of COVID-19 are all consistent with the hypothesis that severe cases of COVID-19 are already being detected by SARI surveillance, placing an overload on the health system. The inclusion of testing for SARS-CoV-2 in the SARI surveillance protocol and the test's effective nationwide deployment are extremely important for monitoring the evolution of severe COVID-19 cases in Brazil

A modelling approach for correcting reporting delays in disease surveillance data.

One difficulty for real-time tracking of epidemics is related to reporting delay. The reporting delay may be due to laboratory confirmation, logistical problems, infrastructure difficulties, and so on. The ability to correct the available information as quickly as possible is crucial, in terms of decision making such as issuing warnings to the public and local authorities. A Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach is proposed as a flexible way of correcting the reporting delays and to quantify the associated uncertainty. Implementation of the model is fast due to the use of the integrated nested Laplace approximation. The approach is illustrated on dengue fever incidence data in Rio de Janeiro, and severe acute respiratory infection data in the state of Paraná, Brazil

Chronic kidney disease increases cardiovascular unfavourable outcomes in outpatients with heart failure

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronic heart failure (CHF) has a high morbidity and mortality. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has consistently been found to be an independent risk factor for unfavorable cardiovascular (CV) outcomes. Early intervention on CKD reduces the progression of CHF, hospitalizations and mortality, yet there are very few studies about CKD as a risk factor in the early stages of CHF. The aims of our study were to assess the prevalence and the prognostic importance of CKD in patients with systolic CHF stages B and C.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This is a prospective cohort study, dealing with prognostic markers for CV endpoints in patients with systolic CHF (ejection fraction ≤ 45%).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>CKD was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m²and CV endpoints as death or hospitalization due to CHF, in 12 months follow-up. Eighty three patients were studied, the mean age was 62.7 ± 12 years, and 56.6% were female. CKD was diagnosed in 49.4% of the patients, 33% of patients with CHF stage B and 67% in the stage C. Cardiovascular endpoints were observed in 26.5% of the patients. When the sample was stratified into stages B and C of CHF, the occurrence of CKD was associated with 100% and 64.7%, respectively, of unfavorable CV outcomes. After adjustments for all other prognostic factors at baseline, it was observed that the diagnosis of CKD increased in 3.6 times the possibility of CV outcomes (CI 95% 1.04-12.67, p = 0.04), whereas higher ejection fraction (R = 0.925, IC 95% 0.862-0.942, p = 0.03) and serum sodium (R = 0.807, IC 95% 0.862-0.992, p = 0.03) were protective.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this cohort of patients with CHF stages B and C, CKD was prevalent and independently associated with increased risk of hospitalization and death secondary to cardiac decompensation, especially in asymptomatic patients.</p