Measuring inequalities of development at the sub-national level: From the human development index to the human life indicator

Despite being one of the most common measures of development, the Human Development Index [HDI] has been much criticized for its consistency, data requirements, difficulty of interpretation and trade-offs between indicators. The ‘Human Life Indicator’ [HLI] has been proposed as a ‘simple effective means’ of measuring development and, more specifically, as a viable alternative to the HDI. Reducing inequalities within countries is a core component of the Sustainable Development Goals; yet sub-national HDIs are subject to the same criticisms as national level indices (potentially more so). Our goal in this paper is to demonstrate ‘proof of concept’ in terms of the systematic application of the HLI to measure development at the subnational level. Using life tables for the United States of America, we calculate, for the first time, HLIs for each state for the period 1959–2016. This country was chosen for the comparatively long run of available sub-national life tables. We also calculate the extent to which mortality is distributed across the life course—a further measure of inequality and the role of the social determinants of health. The HLI clearly shows how striking regional inequalities exist across the United States. We find that HLI and HDI for the most recent time period are strongly correlated. The analysis demonstrates that HLI represents an effective means of measuring development at the sub-national level. Compared to HDI, HLIs are characterized by simpler calculation and interpretation; fewer data requirements; less measurement error; more consistency over time; and no trade-offs between components. A current challenge of producing sub-national HLIs is the lack of comprehensive civil registration and vital statistics systems in many parts of the Global South from which sub-national life tables can be generated. However, as more and more countries develop these systems the potential to produce HLIs will inevitably increase

Very long range global population scenarios to 2300 and the implications of sustained low fertility

BACKGROUND: Depending on whether the global level of fertility is assumed to converge to the current European TFR (~1.5) or that of Southeast Asia or Central America (~2.5), global population will either decline to 2.3-2.9 billion by 2200 or increase to 33-37 billion, if mortality continues to decline. Furthermore, sizeable human populations exist when the "voluntary chosen" ideal family size is heavily concentrated around one child per woman with TFRs as low as 0.6-0.8. However, the UN population projections to 2300 use a much narrower band of possible future TFRs. OBJECTIVE: If the two-child norm is not necessarily the end-point transition, what would be the consequences of the currently reported low fertility rates being sustained and becoming widespread? METHODS: We present new projections for 13 IPCC world regions with scenarios calculated on the basis of regular cohort-component projections by age and sex in single-year time steps up to 2300, each based upon a much broader set of fertility assumptions than currently employed. We create three mortality scenarios based upon maximum life expectancies of 90, 100, 110, as well as a series of "special" scenarios. RESULTS: Even under conditions of further substantial increases in life expectancy, world population size would decline significantly if the world in the longer run followed the examples of Europe and East Asia. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to Malthusian disaster scenarios, our exercise illustrates the distinct possibility of significant population shrinking associated with increasing life expectancy and human well-being

International remittance flows and the economic and social consequences of COVID-19

One of the possible consequences of the tightening of international borders during and after pandemic COVID-19 is what the World Economic Forum refers to as the ‘throttling’ of international (labour) migration. While this will have a profound macroeconomic impact on the global economy, the potential impact on remittances on families, communities and national economies could be equally marked. We present a chord diagram to visualize the latest inter- (and intra-) regional global data on international remittances. This graphic shows the degree of the interconnectedness of the ‘global economy of work’ and the extent to which negative health, economic, social or political changes for migrants in one territory will have profound consequences far across the world

Better way to measure ageing in East Asia that takes life expectancy into account

Aim The aim of the study is to improve the measurement of ageing taking into account characteristics of populations and in particular changes in life expectancy. Method Using projected life tables, we calculate prospective old age dependency ratios (POADRs) to 2060, placing the boundary to old age at a moving point with a fixed remaining life expectancy (RLE) for all countries of East Asia. Results POADRs grow less rapidly than old age dependency ratios (OADRs). For example, in the Republic of Korea, the OADR is forecast to increase from around 0.1 in 1980 to around 0.8 in 2060, while the POADR is forecast to increase from around 0.1 to 0.4 over the same period. Conclusion Policy makers may wish to take into account the fact that the increases in measures of ageing will be slower when those measures are adjusted for changes in life expectancy

Towards a reconceptualising of population ageing in emerging markets

Variously defined, the ‘emerging markets’ [EMs] are frequently held up as thecountries that will shape global economic development in the 21st century. However,it is also often said that population ageing could limit growth in many EMs. Inthis paper, we explore the conventional measurements employed to demonstratepopulation ageing in EMs, and then move on to discuss whether these measurementsare, indeed, ‘fit for purpose’ when studying EMs. Drawing on the literatureon ‘prospective ageing’ (pioneered by Sanderson and Scherbov), we present analternative set of ageing measurements based on a boundary for ‘dependency’drawn from remaining life expectancy rather than chronological age. Using thesemeasurements, population ageing – at least as defined here – can be seen as a muchmore manageable prospect for many EMs. We also examine the challenges andthe opportunities for EMs associated with population ageing, and consider theirpotential advantages relative to the EU and North America in managing this trend

Prospective measures of aging for Central and South America

By conventional measures, it is often remarked that Central and South America is one of the fastest aging geographic regions in the world. In recent years, however, scholars have sought to problematize the orthodox measures and concepts employed in the aging literature. By not taking dynamic changes in life expectancy into account, measures which hold chronological age constant (e.g. defining a boundary to old age at 60 or 65) represent a very narrow view of population aging. Furthermore, such constant measures may misrepresent differences between territories when performing a comparative analysis. Prospective measures based on the number of years until death present an alternative approach which can adapt to dynamic changes in life expectancy and differences over time and space. The objective of this paper, then, is to apply the new ‘prospective’ measures of aging to the territories of Central and South America. We calculate prospective median age; an alternative old-age threshold based on the age at which remaining life expectancy is 15 years, and calculate prospective old-age dependency ratio for 1950–2100 using estimated and projected life tables from the latest iteration of the UN’s World Population Prospects. These new measures present a very different view of aging in Central and South America. While there are significant differences across countries, the pace and scale of aging are considerably slower and diminished when compared to standard, orthodox measures based on fixed chronological ages. Applying these new measures can not only serve to present a more realistic view of aging which maps onto demographic reality but can also serve to reconceptualize and reframe the issue as something which is far more manageable (e.g. through institutional reform) than is often perceived to be

Effective link quality estimation as a means to improved end-to-end packet delivery in high traffic mobile ad hoc networks

Accurate link quality estimation is a fundamental building block in quality aware multi hop routing. In an inherently lossy, unreliable and dynamic medium such as wireless, the task of accurate estimation becomes very challenging. Over the years ETX has been widely used as a reliable link quality estimation metric. However, more recently it has been established that under heavy traffic loads ETX performance gets significantly worse. We examine the ETX metric's behavior in detail with respect to the MAC layer and UDP data; and identify the causes of its unreliability. Motivated by the observations made in our analysis, we present the design and implementation of our link quality measurement metric xDDR – a variation of ETX. This article extends xDDR to support network mobility. Our experiments show that xDDR substantially outperforms minimum hop count, ETX and HETX in terms of end-to-end packet delivery ratio in static as well as mobile scenarios.</p

Utilization of Palm Oil Mill Effluent (POME) Liquid Waste to Increase Density and Growth Rate of Microalgae Chlorella Pyrenoidosa

Microalgae Chlorella pyrenoidosa is a microalgae that has the potential to have various roles, especially as a bioabsorbant for organic waste. The growth of the oil palm plantation industry is also directly proportional to the increase in waste generated from the CPO production process, namely POME Waste (Palm Oil Mill Effluent). POME waste has a high nutrient content so that it can be utilized by the microalgae Chlorella pyrenoidosa. This study aims to utilize POME waste to increase the growth of Chlorella pyrenoidosa. Microalgae cultivation had a significant effect on the 1:2 treatment and 1:3 treatment when compared to the control cultivation medium with the highest cell density values ​​of 263(106cells/ml) and 279(106cells/ml) respectively. Injection of POME waste into microalgae rearing media will have an impact on increasing the growth of Chlorella pyrenoidosa microalgae

Konsepsi Mahasiswa Tentang Cepat Rambat Gelombang Pada Permukaan Air

Salah satu fenomena fisika yang paling dekat dengan kita adalah gelombang mekanis seperti gelombang pada permukaan air. Parameter-parameter penting seperti kecepatan rambat, panjang gelombang, frekuensi, amplitudo, dan media perambatan sering dikaitkan berdasarkan konsepsi sederhana sehingga berpotensi terjadinya miskonsepsi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui konsepsi mahasiswa tentang cepat rambat gelombang pada permukaan air. Sebanyak 53 mahasiswa tahun pertama pada program studi Pendidikan Matematika dan Pendidikan Fisika yang telah mengikuti mata kuliah fisika dasar dijadikan sampel uji tes diagnostik. Ditemukan bahwa lebih dari 80% sampel secara konsisten mengalami miskonsepsi tentang kecepatan rambat gelombang