Probability densities and distributions for spiked and general variance Wishart β\beta-ensembles

A Wishart matrix is said to be spiked when the underlying covariance matrix has a single eigenvalue $b$ different from unity. As $b$ increases through $b=2$, a gap forms from the largest eigenvalue to the rest of the spectrum, and with $b-2$ of order $N^{-1/3}$ the scaled largest eigenvalues form a well defined parameter dependent state. Recent works by Bloemendal and Vir\'ag [BV], and Mo, have quantified this parameter dependent state for real Wishart matrices from different viewpoints, and the former authors have done similarly for the spiked Wishart $\beta$-ensemble. The latter is defined in terms of certain random bidiagonal matrices. We use a recursive structure to give an alternative construction of the spiked and more generally the general variance Wishart $\beta$-ensemble, and we give the exact form of the joint eigenvalue PDF for the two matrices in the recurrence. In the case of real quaternion Wishart matrices ($\beta = 4$) the latter is recognised as having appeared in earlier studies on symmetrized last passage percolation, allowing the exact form of the scaled distribution of the largest eigenvalue to be given. This extends and simplifies earlier work of Wang, and is an alternative derivation to a result in [BV]. We also use the construction of the spiked Wishart $\beta$-ensemble from [BV] to give a simple derivation of the explicit form of the eigenvalue PDF.Comment: 18 page

Extreme Thouless effect in a minimal model of dynamic social networks

In common descriptions of phase transitions, first order transitions are characterized by discontinuous jumps in the order parameter and normal fluctuations, while second order transitions are associated with no jumps and anomalous fluctuations. Outside this paradigm are systems exhibiting `mixed order transitions' displaying a mixture of these characteristics. When the jump is maximal and the fluctuations range over the entire range of allowed values, the behavior has been coined an `extreme Thouless effect'. Here, we report findings of such a phenomenon, in the context of dynamic, social networks. Defined by minimal rules of evolution, it describes a population of extreme introverts and extroverts, who prefer to have contacts with, respectively, no one or everyone. From the dynamics, we derive an exact distribution of microstates in the stationary state. With only two control parameters, $N_{I,E}$ (the number of each subgroup), we study collective variables of interest, e.g., $X$, the total number of $I$-$E$ links and the degree distributions. Using simulations and mean-field theory, we provide evidence that this system displays an extreme Thouless effect. Specifically, the fraction $X/\left( N_{I}N_{E}\right)$ jumps from $0$ to $1$ (in the thermodynamic limit) when $N_{I}$ crosses $N_{E}$, while all values appear with equal probability at $N_{I}=N_{E}$.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1408.542

Martingale Option Pricing

We show that our generalization of the Black-Scholes partial differential equation (pde) for nontrivial diffusion coefficients is equivalent to a Martingale in the risk neutral discounted stock price. Previously, this was proven for the case of the Gaussian logarithmic returns model by Harrison and Kreps, but we prove it for much a much larger class of returns models where the diffusion coefficient depends on both returns x and time t. That option prices blow up if fat tails in logarithmic returns x are included in the market dynamics is also explained

Nonstationary Increments, Scaling Distributions, and Variable Diffusion Processes in Financial Markets

Arguably the most important problem in quantitative finance is to understand the nature of stochastic processes that underlie market dynamics. One aspect of the solution to this problem involves determining characteristics of the distribution of fluctuations in returns. Empirical studies conducted over the last decade have reported that they arenon-Gaussian, scale in time, and have power-law(or fat) tails. However, because they use sliding interval methods of analysis, these studies implicitly assume that the underlying process has stationary increments. We explicitly show that this assumption is not valid for the Euro-Dollar exchange rate between 1999-2004. In addition, we find that fluctuations in returns of the exchange rate are uncorrelated and scale as power-laws for certain time intervals during each day. This behavior is consistent with a diffusive process with a diffusion coefficient that depends both on the time and the price change. Within scaling regions, we find that sliding interval methods can generate fat-tailed distributions as an artifact, and that the type of scaling reported in many previous studies does not exist.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Exact results for the extreme Thouless effect in a model of network dynamics

If a system undergoing phase transitions exhibits some characteristics of both first and second order, it is said to be of 'mixed order' or to display the Thouless effect. Such a transition is present in a simple model of a dynamic social network, in which $N_{I/E}$ extreme introverts/extroverts always cut/add random links. In particular, simulations showed that $\left\langle f\right\rangle$, the average fraction of cross-links between the two groups (which serves as an 'order parameter' here), jumps dramatically when $\Delta \equiv N_{I}-N_{E}$ crosses the 'critical point' $\Delta _{c}=0$, as in typical first order transitions. Yet, at criticality, there is no phase co-existence, but the fluctuations of $f$ are much larger than in typical second order transitions. Indeed, it was conjectured that, in the thermodynamic limit, both the jump and the fluctuations become maximal, so that the system is said to display an 'extreme Thouless effect.' While earlier theories are partially successful, we provide a mean-field like approach that accounts for all known simulation data and validates the conjecture. Moreover, for the critical system $N_{I}=N_{E}=L$, an analytic expression for the mesa-like stationary distribution, $P\left( f\right)$, shows that it is essentially flat in a range $\left[ f_{0},1-f_{0}\right]$, with $f_0 \ll 1$. Numerical evaluations of $f_{0}$ provides excellent agreement with simulation data for $L\lesssim 2000$. For large $L$, we find $f_{0}\rightarrow \sqrt{\left( \ln L^2 \right) /L}$ , though this behavior begins to set in only for $L>10^{100}$. For accessible values of $L$, we provide a transcendental equation for an approximate $f_{0}$ which is better than $\sim$1% down to $L=100$. We conjecture how this approach might be used to attack other systems displaying an extreme Thouless effect.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure