CONCLUSIONS FOR AGRICULTURAL PRACTICE, POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT

Agricultural and Food Policy,

Has the non-oil sector decoupled from oil sector? A case study of Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

As oil and gas are exhaustible resources, the need for economic diversification has gained momentum in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries immediately after the end of the first oil boom in 1973-74. Economic diversification, in the context of GCC countries, implies development of the non-oil sector and reduction of the proportion of government revenue and export proceeds from the oil and gas sector. Applying newly developed measures of business cycle synchronicity between oil and non-oil sectors in three GCC economies (Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia), we show both the degree of diversification achieved so far and the direction of diversification in terms of individual non-oil sectors. Overall, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia appear to be moderately ahead than Qatar in reducing their dependence on oil. Nevertheless, by developing large production capacities of natural gas, Qatar has recently reduced its dependence on oil in favor of natural gas. A quantitative assessment of the determinants of business cycle synchronization is also provided.Business cycle; Synchronization; Oil price; Fiscal policy; GCC countries

Total ozone measurement: Intercomparison of prototype New Zealand filter instrument and Dobson spectrophotometer

A five month intercomparison showed that the total ozone amounts of a prototype narrowband interference filter instrument were 7% less than those of a Dobson instrument for an ozone range of 0.300 to 0.500 atm cm and for airmasses less than two. The 7% bias was within the intercomparison calibration uncertainty. An airmass dependence in the Dobson instrument made the bias relationship airmass-dependent but the filter instrument's ozone values were generally constant to 2% up to an airmass of four. Long term drift in the bias was negligible

Capacity Region of Finite State Multiple-Access Channel with Delayed State Information at the Transmitters

A single-letter characterization is provided for the capacity region of finite-state multiple access channels. The channel state is a Markov process, the transmitters have access to delayed state information, and channel state information is available at the receiver. The delays of the channel state information are assumed to be asymmetric at the transmitters. We apply the result to obtain the capacity region for a finite-state Gaussian MAC, and for a finite-state multiple-access fading channel. We derive power control strategies that maximize the capacity region for these channels

Is there Really a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? More Evidence from Panel Data Models

Time series unit root evidence suggests that inflation is nonstationary. By contrast, when using more powerful panel unit root tests, Culver and Papell (1997) find that inflation is stationary. In this paper, we test the robustness of this result by applying a battery of recent panel unit root tests. The results suggest that the stationarity of inflation holds even after controlling for crosssectional dependence and structural change.Unit Root; Inflation; Cross-Sectional Dependence; Structural Change

Mixed Signals Among Tests for Panel Cointegration

In this paper, we study the effect that different serial correlation adjustment methods can have on panel cointegration testing. As an example, we consider the very popular tests developed by Pedroni (1999, 2004). Results based on both simulated and real data suggest that different adjustment methods can lead to significant variations in test outcome, and thus also in the conclusions.Panel Data; Cointegration Testing; Parametric and Semiparametric Methods

"PPP tests in cointegrated panels: Evidence from Asian developing countries".

This paper tests the relative version of purchasing power parity (PPP) for a set of ten Asian developing countries using panel cointegration framework. We employ 'between-dimension' dynamic OLS estimator as proposed by Pedroni (2001b). The test results overwhelmingly reject the PPP hypothesis.Purchasing Power Parity, Panel Cointegration, Unit Root

PPP TESTS IN COINTEGRATED PANELS: EVIDENCE FROM ASIAN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This paper tests the relative version of purchasing power parity (PPP) for a set of ten Asian developing countries using panel cointegration framework. We employ ¡®between-dimension¡¯ dynamic OLS estimator as proposed by Pedroni (2001b). The test results overwhelmingly reject the PPP hypothesis.Purchasing Power Parity, Panel Cointegration, Unit Roots.

Oil price risk and emerging stock markets

This paper uses an international multi-factor Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model that allows for both unconditional and conditional risk factors to investigate the relationship between oil price risk and emerging stock market returns. In general we find strong evidence that oil price risk impacts stock price returns in emerging markets. Results for other risk factors like market risk, total risk, skewness, and kurtosis are also presented. These results are useful for individual and institutional investors, managers and policy makers.Emerging markets; market risk; oil price risk

"PPP tests in cointegrated panels: Evidence from Asian developing countries".

This paper tests the relative version of purchasing power parity (PPP) for a set of ten Asian developing countries using panel cointegration framework. We employ 'between-dimension' dynamic OLS estimator as proposed by Pedroni (2001b). The test results overwhelmingly reject the PPP hypothesis.Purchasing Power Parity, Panel Cointegration, Unit Root