752 research outputs found
British economic growth and the business cycle, 1700-1870 : annual estimates
This paper provides the first annual GDP series for Great Britain over the
period 1700-1870. The series is constructed in real terms from the output side, using
volume indicators and value added weights. Sectoral estimates are provided for
agriculture, industry and services, and for a number of sub-sectors. Estimates of
nominal GDP are also provided, based on a benchmark for 1841 and projected back to
1700 and forward to 1870 using the real output series and sectoral price indices. The
new data are used to provide a consistent account of economic growth and the
business cycle. The results are broadly consistent with the long run path of real output
suggested by Crafts and Harley, although growth rates for sub-periods differ, largely
as a result of changes in the growth of agriculture. Nominal GDP increased more
rapidly than suggested by Lindert and Williamson during the eighteenth century, and
more slowly than suggested by Deane and Cole during the first half of the nineteenth
century, as a result of differences in the price indices. We also refine the business
cycle chronologies of Ashton and Gayer, Rostow and Schwartz
Local Subspace-Based Outlier Detection using Global Neighbourhoods
Outlier detection in high-dimensional data is a challenging yet important
task, as it has applications in, e.g., fraud detection and quality control.
State-of-the-art density-based algorithms perform well because they 1) take the
local neighbourhoods of data points into account and 2) consider feature
subspaces. In highly complex and high-dimensional data, however, existing
methods are likely to overlook important outliers because they do not
explicitly take into account that the data is often a mixture distribution of
multiple components.
We therefore introduce GLOSS, an algorithm that performs local subspace
outlier detection using global neighbourhoods. Experiments on synthetic data
demonstrate that GLOSS more accurately detects local outliers in mixed data
than its competitors. Moreover, experiments on real-world data show that our
approach identifies relevant outliers overlooked by existing methods,
confirming that one should keep an eye on the global perspective even when
doing local outlier detection.Comment: Short version accepted at IEEE BigData 201
Capital formation and economic growth under central planning and transition: A theoretical and empirical analysis, ca. 1920â2008
According to the consensus view, it was primarily physical capital accumulation that drove economic growth during the early years of state socialism. Growth models incorporating both human and physical capital accumulation led to the conclusion that a high physical/human capital ratio can cause a lower economic growth in the long run, hence offering an explanation for the failure of socialist economies. In this paper, we show theoretically and empirically that according to the logic of the socialist planner, it was optimal to achieve a higher physical to human capital ratio in socialist countries than in the West. Using a VAR analysis, we find empirical confirmation that within the Material Product System of national accounting, the relative dominance of investment in physical capital accumulation relative to human capital was indeed more efficient than under the system of national accounts
English economic growth, 1270-1700
We provide annual estimates of GDP for England over the period 1270-1700,
constructed from the output side. The GDP data are combined with population estimates
to calculate GDP per capita. Sectoral price data and estimates of nominal GDP are also
provided. We find per capita income growth of 0.20 per cent per annum, although growth
was episodic, with the strongest growth after the Black Death and in the second half of
the seventeenth century. Living standards in the late medieval period were well above
âbare bones subsistenceâ, although levels of kilocalorie consumption per head were
modest because of the very large share of pastoral production in agriculture
British economic growth : 1270 - 1870
We provide annual estimates of GDP for England between 1270 and 1700 and
for Great Britain between 1700 and 1870, constructed from the output side. The GDP
data are combined with population estimates to calculate GDP per capita. We find
English per capita income growth of 0.20 per cent per annum between 1270 and 1700,
although growth was episodic, with the strongest growth during the Black Death crisis of
the fourteenth century and in the second half of the seventeenth century. For the period
1700-1870, we find British per capita income growth of 0.48 per cent, broadly in line
with the widely accepted Crafts/Harley estimates. This modest trend growth in per capita
income since 1270 suggests that, working back from the present, living standards in the
late medieval period were well above âbare bones subsistenceâ. This can be reconciled
with modest levels of kilocalorie consumption per head because of the very large share of
pastoral production in agriculture
Education as a driver of income inequality in twentieth-century Africa
In this paper, we address the issue of how education affected income inequality in twentieth-century Africa. Three channels are identified through which education may affect income inequality. First, an increase in the average educational level is correlated with an increase in average income, which, ceteris paribus, reduces inequality. Second, a reduction in educational inequality may, given a positive correlation between education level and income, reduce income inequality. Thirdly, an increase in the supply of education may decrease the price of skilled labour thus lowering income inequality.
We find that in the long-run education does not affect income growth, indicating that in twentieth-century Africa it was inspiration (i.e., Total Factor Productivity [TFP]) rather than perspiration (i.e., education and physical capital) that drove economic development. Testing for the effects of the remaining two channels, we found a significant non-linear relationship between educational and income inequality suggesting that, contrary to the level of education, these two channels were important in determining income inequality in Africa. Taking an example from the end of the twentieth century, if educational equality had been eliminated, then income inequality would decline by no less than 81%
Regional human capital in Republican and New China: Its spread, quality and effects on economic growth
In recent decades there has been increasing attention for Chinese economic development. There has been a big debate though if its growth is caused by capital accumulation (perspiration factors) or driven by Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth (inspiration factors). The difference between both stances is quite substantial since, if the perspiration theory is correct, one expects the growth of the Chinese economy to slow down over time as the capital accumulation grows increasingly less efficient. However, so far this question is difficult to analyse for China since we lack information on one of the factors of production, human capital.
To analyse this question, in this paper we develop a new dataset on human capital for the provinces of China between 1922 and 2010. Using our new dataset, together with physical capital and per capita GDP, allows us to do a TFP analysis for sub periods. We find a continuously negative TFP growth suggesting that reduction in productivity was a structural feature of the Chinese economy. If true, this was to lend support to the perspiration theory and would suggest a slowdown of the Chinese economy in the future. However, standard growth accounting allocates both technical efficiency of the factors of production and the general technical development to TFP. Subtracting technical efficiency from TFP growth, we find that general technological development turns increasingly positive in the 1990s and 2000s. This suggests that, whereas until the reform period China was largely driven by capital accumulation, afterwards general technical development got an increasingly prominent place giving hope for continued economic development in the future
Regional human capital in Republican and New China: Its spread, quality and effects on economic growth
In recent decades there has been increasing attention for Chinese economic development. There has been a big debate though if its growth is caused by capital accumulation (perspiration factors) or driven by Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth (inspiration factors). The difference between both stances is quite substantial since, if the perspiration theory is correct, one expects the growth of the Chinese economy to slow down over time as the capital accumulation grows increasingly less efficient. However, so far this question is difficult to analyse for China since we lack information on one of the factors of production, human capital.
To analyse this question, in this paper we develop a new dataset on human capital for the provinces of China between 1922 and 2010. Using our new dataset, together with physical capital and per capita GDP, allows us to do a TFP analysis for sub periods. We find a continuously negative TFP growth suggesting that reduction in productivity was a structural feature of the Chinese economy. If true, this was to lend support to the perspiration theory and would suggest a slowdown of the Chinese economy in the future. However, standard growth accounting allocates both technical efficiency of the factors of production and the general technical development to TFP. Subtracting technical efficiency from TFP growth, we find that general technological development turns increasingly positive in the 1990s and 2000s. This suggests that, whereas until the reform period China was largely driven by capital accumulation, afterwards general technical development got an increasingly prominent place giving hope for continued economic development in the future
Education as a driver of income inequality in twentieth-century Africa
In this paper, we address the issue of how education affected income inequality in twentieth-century Africa. Three channels are identified through which education may affect income inequality. First, an increase in the average educational level is correlated with an increase in average income, which, ceteris paribus, reduces inequality. Second, a reduction in educational inequality may, given a positive correlation between education level and income, reduce income inequality. Thirdly, an increase in the supply of education may decrease the price of skilled labour thus lowering income inequality.
We find that in the long-run education does not affect income growth, indicating that in twentieth-century Africa it was inspiration (i.e., Total Factor Productivity [TFP]) rather than perspiration (i.e., education and physical capital) that drove economic development. Testing for the effects of the remaining two channels, we found a significant non-linear relationship between educational and income inequality suggesting that, contrary to the level of education, these two channels were important in determining income inequality in Africa. Taking an example from the end of the twentieth century, if educational equality had been eliminated, then income inequality would decline by no less than 81%
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