Large Pseudo-Counts and L2L_2-Norm Penalties Are Necessary for the Mean-Field Inference of Ising and Potts Models

Mean field (MF) approximation offers a simple, fast way to infer direct interactions between elements in a network of correlated variables, a common, computationally challenging problem with practical applications in fields ranging from physics and biology to the social sciences. However, MF methods achieve their best performance with strong regularization, well beyond Bayesian expectations, an empirical fact that is poorly understood. In this work, we study the influence of pseudo-count and $L_2$-norm regularization schemes on the quality of inferred Ising or Potts interaction networks from correlation data within the MF approximation. We argue, based on the analysis of small systems, that the optimal value of the regularization strength remains finite even if the sampling noise tends to zero, in order to correct for systematic biases introduced by the MF approximation. Our claim is corroborated by extensive numerical studies of diverse model systems and by the analytical study of the $m$-component spin model, for large but finite $m$. Additionally we find that pseudo-count regularization is robust against sampling noise, and often outperforms $L_2$-norm regularization, particularly when the underlying network of interactions is strongly heterogeneous. Much better performances are generally obtained for the Ising model than for the Potts model, for which only couplings incoming onto medium-frequency symbols are reliably inferred.Comment: 25 pages, 17 figure

Variability Of Water Mass Interleaving Off N.W. Africa

Water mass interleaving observed over the N.W. African continental slope during Upwelling 75 has been investigated. A water mass census demonstrated that the most common temperature-salinity characteristics over the slope at 23N lay between those of the North and South Atlantic Central Water masses...

Hysterectomy, endometrial ablation, and levonorgestrel releasing intrauterine system (Mirena) for treatment of heavy menstrual bleeding : cost effectiveness analysis

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Defoliation of the Invasive Tree Falcataria moluccana on Hawaii Island by the Native Koa Looper Moth (Geometridae: Scotorythra paludicola), and Evaluation of Five Fabaceous Trees as Larval Hostplants

The koa looper (Geometridae: Scotorythra paludicola) is an endemic Hawaiian moth whose caterpillars feed on Acacia koa, and experience occasional outbreaks, producing vast defoliations of forests. During an extensive and ongoing outbreak of this species on the island of Hawaii, patchy defoliation of Falcataria moluccana (“albizia”) was observed in the vicinity of Akaka Falls State Park, relatively distant from the main defoliation of koa, raising questions about the host range of the koa looper. To identify suitable host plants in the laboratory, we of- fered the koa looper foliage from five fabaceous tree species (A. koa, A. confusa, F. moluccana, Prosopis pallida, and Leucaena leucocephala), and recorded feeding and performance on these diets. Among the five tree species, only A. koa and F. moluccana were accepted as food; caterpillars on the other three species all died by the fifth day of the trial. Survival of the koa looper to pupation and adulthood on F. moluccana did not differ significantly from that on A. koa phyllodes, indicating that this tree is a suitable host, though it does not appear to be widely utilized in the field. Both oviposition preference and larval requirements are likely important determinants of the realized diet breadth for the koa looper. Additionally, develop- ment times at 19°C on A. koa and F. moluccana were nearly twice as long as at 23°C, highlighting the importance of temperature for development of this insect

Casimir-Polder forces, boundary conditions and fluctuations

We review different aspects of the atom-atom and atom-wall Casimir-Polder forces. We first discuss the role of a boundary condition on the interatomic Casimir-Polder potential between two ground-state atoms, and give a physically transparent interpretation of the results in terms of vacuum fluctuations and image atomic dipoles. We then discuss the known atom-wall Casimir-Polder force for ground- and excited-state atoms, using a different method which is also suited for extension to time-dependent situations. Finally, we consider the fluctuation of the Casimir-Polder force between a ground-state atom and a conducting wall, and discuss possible observation of this force fluctuation.Comment: 5 page

Evaluating PET-CT in the detection and management of recurrent cervical cancer: Systematic reviews of diagnostic accuracy and subjective elicitation

Background: Positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) is recommended to triage women for exenterative surgery and surveillance after treatment for advanced cervical cancer. Objective: To evaluate diagnostic accuracy of additional whole body PET-CT compared with CT/magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) alone in women with suspected recurrent/persistent cervical cancer and in asymptomatic women as surveillance. Design: Systematic reviews. Subjective elicitation to supplement diagnostic information. Search strategy/Selection criteria/Data collection and analysis: Searches of electronic databases were performed to June 2013. Studies in women with suspected recurrent/persistent cervical cancer and in asymptomatic women undergoing follow up with sufficient numeric data were included. We calculated sensitivity, specificity and corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Meta-analyses employed a bivariate model that included a random-effects term for between-study variations (CT studies) and univariate random effects meta-analyses (PET-CT studies) for sensitivity and specificity separately. Subjective elicitation: Prevalence of recurrence and the accuracy of imaging elicited using the allocation of points technique. Coherence of elicited subjective probabilities with estimates in the literature examined. Results: We identified 15 relevant studies; none directly compared additional PET-CT with MRI or CT separately. Most CT and MRI studies used older protocols and the majority did not distinguish between asymptomatic and symptomatic women. Meta-analysis of nine PET-CT studies in mostly symptomatic women showed sensitivity of 94.8 (95% CI 91.2-96.9), and specificity of 86.9% (95% CI 82.2-90.5). The summary estimate of the sensitivity of CT for detection of recurrence was 89.64% (95% CI 81.59-94.41) and specificity was 76% (95% CI 43.68-92.82). Meta-analysis for MRI test accuracy studies was not possible because of clinical heterogeneity. The sensitivity and specificity of MRI in pelvic recurrence varied between 82 and 100% and between 78 and 100%, respectively. Formal statistical comparisons of the accuracy of index tests were not possible. Subjective elicitation provided estimates comparable to the literature. Subjective estimates of the increase in accuracy from the addition of PET-CT were less than elicited increases required to justify the use in PET-CT for surveillance. Conclusion: Evidence to support additional PET-CT is scarce, of average quality and does not distinguish between application for surveillance and diagnosis. Guidelines recommending PET-CT in recurrent cervical cancer need to be reconsidered in the light of the existing evidence base

`Operational' Energy Conditions

I show that a quantized Klein-Gordon field in Minkowski space obeys an `operational' weak energy condition: the energy of an isolated device constructed to measure or trap the energy in a region, plus the energy it measures or traps, cannot be negative. There are good reasons for thinking that similar results hold locally for linear quantum fields in curved space-times. A thought experiment to measure energy density is analyzed in some detail, and the operational positivity is clearly manifested. If operational energy conditions do hold for quantum fields, then the negative energy densities predicted by theory have a will-o'-the-wisp character: any local attempt to verify a total negative energy density will be self-defeating on account of quantum measurement difficulties. Similarly, attempts to drive exotic effects (wormholes, violations of the second law, etc.) by such densities may be defeated by quantum measurement problems. As an example, I show that certain attempts to violate the Cosmic Censorship principle by negative energy densities are defeated. These quantum measurement limitations are investigated in some detail, and are shown to indicate that space-time cannot be adequately modeled classically in negative energy density regimes.Comment: 18 pages, plain Tex, IOP macros. Expanded treatment of measurement problems for space-time, with implications for Cosmic Censorship as an example. Accepted by Classical and Quantum Gravit

Positron emission tomography/computerised tomography imaging in detecting and managing recurrent cervical cancer: systematic review of evidence, elicitation of subjective probabilities and economic modelling.

© Queen’s Printer and Controller of HMSO 2013. This work was produced by Meads et al. under the terms of a commissioning contract issued by the Secretary of State for Health. This issue may be freely reproduced for the purposes of private research and study and extracts (or indeed, the full report) may be included in professional journals provided that suitable acknowledgement is made and the reproduction is not associated with any form of advertising.Cancer of the uterine cervix is a common cause of mortality in women. After initial treatment women may be symptom free, but the cancer may recur within a few years. It is uncertain whether it is more clinically effective to survey asymptomatic women for signs of recurrence or to await symptoms or signs before using imaging.National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programm