A Conversation with Monroe Sirken

Born January 11, 1921 in New York City, Monroe Sirken grew up in a suburb of Pasadena, California. He earned B.A. and M.A. degrees in sociology at UCLA in 1946 and 1947, and a Ph.D. in 1950 in sociology with a minor in mathematics at the University of Washington in 1950 where Professor Z. W. Birnbaum was his mentor and thesis advisor. As a Post-Doctoral Fellow of the Social Science Research Council, Monroe spent 1950--1951 at the Statistics Laboratory, University of California at Berkeley and the Office of the Assistant Director for Research, U.S. Bureau of the Census in Suitland, Maryland. Monroe visited the Census Bureau at a time of great change in the use of sampling and survey methods, and decided to remain. He began his government career there in 1951 as a mathematical statistician, and moved to the National Office of Vital Statistics (NOVS) in 1953 where he was an actuarial mathematician and a mathematical statistician. He has held a variety of research and administrative positions at the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and he was the Associate Director, Research and Methodology and the Director, Office of Research and Methodology until 1996 when he became a senior research scientist, the title he currently holds. Aside from administrative responsibilities, Monroe's major professional interests have been conducting and fostering survey and statistical research responsive to the needs of federal statistics. His interest in the design of rare and sensitive population surveys led to the development of network sampling which improves precision by linking multiple selection units to the same observation units. His interest in fostering research on the cognitive aspects of survey methods led to the establishment of permanent questionnaire design research laboratories, first at NCHS and later at other federal statistical agencies here and abroad.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-STS245 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Scatterplots with Survey Data

https://commons.wmu.se/lib_chapters/1001/thumbnail.jp

Secular Trends in Regional Differences in Nutritional Biomarkers and Self-Reported Dietary Intakes among American Adults: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1988–1994 to 2009–2010

Objective: To understand the contribution of regional differentials in dietary exposures to regional gradients in health, we examined 20-year trends in the association of US census region of residence with nutritional biomarkers and dietary intakes of American adults. Design: Observational. Setting: The biomarker and 24 h dietary recall data were from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) conducted during 1988–1994 and 1999–2010. The US census region was operationalized as Northeast, Midwest, South and West. Nutritional biomarker outcomes were serum folate, vitamins B6, B12, C, D and E, and carotenoids; dietary outcomes were intakes of nutrients, food groups and eating patterns. Subjects: US adults, n\u3e8000–40 000 for biomarkers and \u3e43 000 for dietary outcomes. Results: The interactions of survey time period and region were not significant for the examined biomarker and dietary outcomes, indicating similar secular trends among regions. The main effect of region was significant for all nutritional biomarkers except serum vitamin B6, most dietary micronutrients, food groups and eating patterns (P\u3c0·001). The mean serum folate, vitamins B12, C and E, and all carotenoid (except lycopene) biomarker levels, and intakes of dietary fibre, vitamins A, E, C and B6, folate, K, Ca, Mg and Fe, fruits, vegetables and whole grains, were higher in the West and Northeast regions, relative to the South and Midwest regions. Conclusions: Overall, the regional gradients in dietary exposure, expressed objectively as biomarkers or as self-reported nutrient and food group intakes, paralleled trajectories reported for health outcomes and were remarkably persistent over time

Away from home meals: associations with biomarkers of chronic disease and dietary intake in American adults, NHANES 2005-2010

Background Away from home (AFH) meals are known to be energy-dense and of poor diet quality. Both direct and indirect exposure (e.g., neighborhood restaurant density) to AFH meals have been implicated as contributors to higher body weight and adverse health outcomes. Objective To examine the association of frequency of eating AFH and fast-food meals with biomarkers of chronic disease and dietary intake. Design This cross-sectional study used frequency of AFH and fast-food meal and biomarker data from the NHANES 2005-2010. Information on weekly frequency of AFH and fast-food meals was collected via questionnaire during the household interview. The metabolic biomarkers examined included BMI, serum cholesterol (total, HDL, and LDL), triglycerides, glycohemoglobin, and fasting glucose (n=8314, age ≥20, NHANES 2007-2010). Biomarkers of dietary exposure included serum concentrations of vitamins A, D, E, C, B-6, B-12, folate, and carotenoids (n=4162; 2005-2006). Multiple linear and logistic regression methods adjusted for complex survey methodology and covariates. Results American adults reported a mean of 3.9 (95% CI 3.7, 4.0) AFH and 1.8 (1.6, 1.9) fast-food meals/week. Over 50% of adults reported ≥3 AFH and \u3e35% reported ≥2 fast-food meals/week. Mean BMI of more frequent AFH or fast-food meal reporters was higher (Ptrend≤0.0004). Serum concentrations of total, LDL, and HDL cholesterol were related inversely with frequency of AFH meals (P\u3c0.05). Frequency of fast-food meals and serum HDL-cholesterol were also related inversely (P=0.0001). Serum concentrations of all examined micronutrients (except vitamin A and lycopene) declined with increasing frequency of AFH meals (P\u3c0.05); women and ≥50 y olds were at higher risk. Conclusions Reporters of frequent AFH and fast-food meals had higher BMI and lower concentrations of HDL cholesterol; but profiles of other biomarkers did not indicate higher metabolic risk. However, the serum concentrations of nutrients with mostly plant foods as sources declined with increasing AFH meal frequency

A population-based study of Kaposi Sarcoma-associated herpesvirus seropositivity in Uganda using principal components analysis

BACKGROUND: Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) seropositivity is associated with sexual, environmental, and socioeconomic exposures. Whether these characteristics are independent risk factors is uncertain because of reliance on selected high-risk or hospital-based populations and incomplete adjustment for confounding. Therefore, we evaluated risk factors for KSHV seropositivity in a population-based study in Uganda using principal components analysis (PCA). METHODS: The study population comprised 2,681 individuals randomly selected from a nationally-representative population-based HIV/AIDS sero-behavioral survey conducted in 2004/05. Questionnaire and laboratory data (97 variables) were transformed into a smaller set of uncorrelated variables using PCA. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association between components and KSHV seropositivity. RESULTS: Data were reduced to three principal components (PCs) labeled as Sexual behavioral, Socioeconomic, and Knowledge PCs. In crude analysis, KSHV seropositivity was associated with the Knowledge (p(trend) = 0.012) and Socioeconomic components (p(trend) = 0.0001), but not with the Sexual-behavioral component (p(trend) = 0.066). KSHV seropositivity was associated with the Socioeconomic PC (p(trend) = 0.037), but not with the Sexual-behavioral and Knowledge PCs, in the models including PCs, age, gender and geographic region. CONCLUSIONS: Our results fit with the view that in Uganda socioeconomic characteristic may influence KSHV seropositivity. Conversely, the results fit with the interpretation that in Uganda sexual-behavioral characteristics, if relevant, contribute minimally

A population-based study of Kaposi Sarcoma-associated herpesvirus seropositivity in Uganda using principal components analysis

Abstract Background Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) seropositivity is associated with sexual, environmental, and socioeconomic exposures. Whether these characteristics are independent risk factors is uncertain because of reliance on selected high-risk or hospital-based populations and incomplete adjustment for confounding. Therefore, we evaluated risk factors for KSHV seropositivity in a population-based study in Uganda using principal components analysis (PCA). Methods The study population comprised 2,681 individuals randomly selected from a nationally-representative population-based HIV/AIDS sero-behavioral survey conducted in 2004/05. Questionnaire and laboratory data (97 variables) were transformed into a smaller set of uncorrelated variables using PCA. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association between components and KSHV seropositivity. Results Data were reduced to three principal components (PCs) labeled as Sexual behavioral, Socioeconomic, and Knowledge PCs. In crude analysis, KSHV seropositivity was associated with the Knowledge (p trend  = 0.012) and Socioeconomic components (p trend  = 0.0001), but not with the Sexual-behavioral component (p trend  = 0.066). KSHV seropositivity was associated with the Socioeconomic PC (p trend  = 0.037), but not with the Sexual-behavioral and Knowledge PCs, in the models including PCs, age, gender and geographic region. Conclusions Our results fit with the view that in Uganda socioeconomic characteristic may influence KSHV seropositivity. Conversely, the results fit with the interpretation that in Uganda sexual-behavioral characteristics, if relevant, contribute minimally.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/112399/1/13027_2012_Article_423.pd

Male Pattern Baldness in Relation to Prostate Cancer–Specific Mortality: A Prospective Analysis in the NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-up Study

We used male pattern baldness as a proxy for long-term androgen exposure and investigated the association of dermatologist-assessed hair loss with prostate cancer–specific mortality in the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study. From the baseline survey (1971–1974), we included 4,316 men who were 25–74 years of age and had no prior cancer diagnosis. We estimated hazard ratios and used Cox proportional hazards regressions with age as the time metric and baseline hazard stratified by baseline age. A hybrid framework was used to account for stratification and clustering of the sample design, with adjustment for the variables used to calculate sample weights. During follow-up (median, 21 years), 3,284 deaths occurred; prostate cancer was the underlying cause of 107. In multivariable models, compared with no balding, any baldness was associated with a 56% higher risk of fatal prostate cancer (hazard ratio = 1.56; 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 2.37), and moderate balding specifically was associated with an 83% higher risk (hazard ratio = 1.83; 95% confidence interval: 1.15, 2.92). Conversely, patterned hair loss was not statistically significantly associated with all-cause mortality. Our analysis suggests that patterned hair loss is associated with a higher risk of fatal prostate cancer and supports the hypothesis of overlapping pathophysiological mechanisms

Blood Lead Levels and Death from All Causes, Cardiovascular Disease, and Cancer: Results from the NHANES III Mortality Study

BACKGROUND: Analyses of mortality data for participants examined in 1976–1980 in the second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES II) suggested an increased risk of mortality at blood lead levels > 20 μg/dL. Blood lead levels have decreased markedly since the late 1970s. In NHANES III, conducted during 1988–1994, few adults had levels > 20 μg/dL. OBJECTIVE: Our objective in this study was to determine the risk of mortality in relation to lower blood lead levels observed for adult participants of NHANES III. METHODS: We analyzed mortality information for 9,757 participants who had a blood lead measurement and who were ≥ 40 years of age at the baseline examination. Using blood lead levels categorized as < 5, 5 to < 10, and ≥ 10 μg/dL, we determined the relative risk of mortality from all causes, cancer, and cardiovascular disease through Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. RESULTS: Using blood lead levels < 5 μg/dL as the referent, we determined that the relative risk of mortality from all causes was 1.24 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05–1.48] for those with blood levels of 5–9 μg/dL and 1.59 (95% CI, 1.28–1.98) for those with blood levels ≥ 10 μg/dL (p for trend < 0.001). The magnitude of risk was similar for deaths due to cardiovascular disease and cancer, and tests for trend were statistically significant (p < 0.01) for both causes of death. CONCLUSION: In a nationally representative sample of the U.S. population, blood lead levels as low as 5–9 μg/dL were associated with an increased risk of death from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer

Neighborhood Socioeconomic Deprivation and Mortality: NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

Residing in deprived areas may increase risk of mortality beyond that explained by a person's own SES-related factors and lifestyle. The aim of this study was to examine the relation between neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation and all-cause, cancer- and cardiovascular disease (CVD)-specific mortality for men and women after accounting for education and other important person-level risk factors.In the longitudinal NIH-AARP Study, we analyzed data from healthy participants, ages 50-71 years at study baseline (1995-1996). Deaths (n = 33831) were identified through December 2005. Information on census tracts was obtained from the 2000 US Census. Cox models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for quintiles of neighborhood deprivation.Participants in the highest quintile of deprivation had elevated risks for overall mortality (HR(men) = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.24; HR(women) = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) and marginally increased risk for cancer deaths (HR(men) = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.20; HR(women) = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.22). CVD mortality associations appeared stronger in men (HR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.19, 1.49) than women (HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.38). There was no evidence of an effect modification by education.Higher neighborhood deprivation was associated with modest increases in all-cause, cancer- and CVD-mortality after accounting for many established risk factors