The NWRA Classification Infrastructure: Description and Extension to the Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS)

A classification infrastructure built upon Discriminant Analysis has been developed at NorthWest Research Associates for examining the statistical differences between samples of two known populations. Originating to examine the physical differences between flare-quiet and flare-imminent solar active regions, we describe herein some details of the infrastructure including: parametrization of large datasets, schemes for handling "null" and "bad" data in multi-parameter analysis, application of non-parametric multi-dimensional Discriminant Analysis, an extension through Bayes' theorem to probabilistic classification, and methods invoked for evaluating classifier success. The classifier infrastructure is applicable to a wide range of scientific questions in solar physics. We demonstrate its application to the question of distinguishing flare-imminent from flare-quiet solar active regions, updating results from the original publications that were based on different data and much smaller sample sizes. Finally, as a demonstration of "Research to Operations" efforts in the space-weather forecasting context, we present the Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS), a near-real-time operationally-running solar flare forecasting tool that was developed from the research-directed infrastructure.Comment: J. Space Weather Space Climate: Accepted / in press; access supplementary materials through journal; some figures are less than full resolution for arXi

Analysis of the total 12C(α,γ)16O cross section based on available angular distributions and other primary data

Because a knowledge of the 12C/16O ratio is crucial to the understanding of the later evolution of massive stars, new R- and K-matrix fits have been completed using the available angular distribution data from radiative α capture and elastic α scattering on 12C. Estimates of the total 12C(α,γ)16O rate at stellar energies are reported. In contrast with previous work, the analyses generally involve R- and K-matrix fits directly to the primary data, i.e., the energy- and angle-dependent differential yields, with all relevant partial waves fitted simultaneously (referred to here as surface fits). It is shown that, while the E1 part of the reaction is well constrained by a recent experiment on the β-delayed α-particle decay of 16N, only upper limits can be placed on the E2 ground state cross section factor which we take conservatively as SE2(300)<140 keV b. Simulations were then carried out to explore what kind of new data could lead to better restrictions on SE2(300). We find that improved elastic scattering data may be the best short-term candidate for such restrictions while significantly improving S(300) with new radiative capture data may require a longer-term effort. Theoretical models and estimates from α-transfer reactions for the E2 part of 12C(α,γ)16O are then discussed for comparison with the R- and K-matrix fits of the present work

Weak double layers in the auroral ionosphere

Previous work on the evolution of weak double layers in a hydrogen plasma was extended to include H(+) and O(+) with relative drift. The relative drift between hydrogen and oxygen ions due to a quasi-static parallel electric field gives rise to a strong linear fluid instability which dominates the ion-acoustic mode at the bottom of the auroral acceleration region. This ion-ion instability can modify ion distributions at lower altitudes and the subsequent nonlinear evolution of weak double layers at higher altitudes in the ion-acoustic regime. Ion hole formation can occur for smaller relative electron-ion drifts than seen in previous simulations, due to the hydrogen-oxygen two-stream instability. This results in local modification of the ion distributions in phase space, and a partial filling of the valley between the hydrogen and oxygen peaks, which would be expected at higher altitudes on auroral field lines. The observed velocity diffusion does not necessarily preclude ion hole and double layer formation in hydrogen in the ion-acoustic regime. These simulation results are consistent with the experimentally measured persistence of separate hydrogen and oxygen peaks, and the observation of weak double layers above an altitude of 3000 km on auroral field lines

Intermittency and the passive nature of the magnitude of the magnetic field

It is shown that the statistical properties of the magnitude of the magnetic field in turbulent electrically conducting media resemble, in the inertial range, those of passive scalars in fully developed three-dimensional fluid turbulence. This conclusion, suggested by the data from Advanced Composition Explorer, is supported by a brief analysis of the appropriate magnetohydrodynamic equations

Self Piercing Riveting for Metal-Polymer Joints

Self-Piercing Riveting (SPR) is a sheet metal joining technique based on the insertion of a rivet into two or more sheets, with no preparatory hole. This process has gained wide diffusion in the automotive industry, due to the increasing use of materials alternative to steel, that are difficult or impossible to join with traditional techniques. In particular, polymeric materials are becoming increasingly used, due to their favorable weight/strength ratio. This paper reports the results of experimental investigations, aimed at identifying the variables affecting the mechanical characteristics of mixed metal-plastic joints. A statistic model for the optimization of the geometrical parameters has been computed. The paper demonstrates that self-piercing riveting appears competitive for metal/polymer junction. The results analyzed in light of statistical techniques show that some geometrical parameters affect joint performance more than others and can therefore be used as independent variables for joint performance optimizatio

A Pilot Study to Measure Upper Extremity H-reflexes Following Neuromuscular Electrical Stimulation Therapy after Stroke

Upper extremity (UE) hemiparesis persists after stroke, limiting hand function. Neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES) is an effective intervention to improve UE recovery, although the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. Our objective was to establish a reliable protocol to measure UE agonist–antagonist forearm monosynaptic reflexes in a pilot study to determine if NMES improves wrist function after stroke. We established the between-day reliability of the H-reflex in the extensor carpi radialis longus (ECRL) and flexor carpi radialis (FCR) musculature for individuals with prior stroke (n = 18). The same-day generation of ECRL/FCR H-reflex recruitment curves was well tolerated, regardless of age or UE spasticity. The between-day reliability of the ECRL H-reflex was enhanced above FCR, similar to healthy subjects [20], with the Hmax the most reliable parameter quantified in both muscles. H-reflex and functional measures following NMES show the potential for NMES-induced increases in ECRL Hmax, but confirmation requires a larger clinical study. Our initial results support the safe, easy, and efficacious use of in-home NMES, and establish a potential method to measure UE monosynaptic reflexes after stroke

Behavioural coping patterns in Parkinson's patients with visual hallucinations

Visual Hallucinations are considered to affect about 20%-40% of patients with Parkinson's disease. They are generally seen as a side effect of this long-term illness and can severely affect the daily quality of life of patients. The aim of this study was to determine the coping patterns or strategies used by patients and establish whether the phenomenology and behaviours used by patients enabled control of the phenomenon. Demographic and clinical variables were recorded, including motor measures, cognitive status, and depressive symptoms. Patient with hallucinations were at a more advance stage of the disease and displayed more depressive symptoms than their non-hallucinating counterparts. Most patients used more than one constructive coping strategy, the most common were simple behavioural strategies based around motor action or cognitive approaches resulting in visual modification. In addition, humour was a common technique used by the patients to deal with the phenomenon. Emotional responses varied between patients, but it was found that the actual content of the hallucination was not directly associated with whether it caused trouble to the patient, but perceived stress was strongly correlated with the subjective disturbing nature of visual hallucinations (VHs). This study gives insight into the role of cognitive-behavioural approaches when dealing with VHs and opens up avenues for future studies in helping patient to deal with hallucinations

Oxidative stress dependent microRNA-34a activation via PI3Kα reduces the expression of sirtuin-1 and sirtuin-6 in epithelial cells

Sirtuin-1 (SIRT1) and SIRT6, NAD(+)-dependent Class III protein deacetylases, are putative anti-aging enzymes, down-regulated in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which is characterized by the accelerated ageing of the lung and associated with increased oxidative stress. Here, we show that oxidative stress (hydrogen peroxide) selectively elevates microRNA-34a (miR-34a) but not the related miR-34b/c, with concomitant reduction of SIRT1/-6 in bronchial epithelial cells (BEAS2B), which was also observed in peripheral lung samples from patients with COPD. Over-expression of a miR-34a mimic caused a significant reduction in both mRNA and protein of SIRT1/-6, whereas inhibition of miR-34a (antagomir) increased these sirtuins. Induction of miR-34a expression with H2O2 was phosphoinositide-3-kinase (PI3K) dependent as it was associated with PI3Kα activation as well as phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) reduction. Importantly, miR-34a antagomirs increased SIRT1/-6 mRNA levels, whilst decreasing markers of cellular senescence in airway epithelial cells from COPD patients, suggesting that this process is reversible. Other sirtuin isoforms were not affected by miR-34a. Our data indicate that miR-34a is induced by oxidative stress via PI3K signaling, and orchestrates ageing responses under oxidative stress, therefore highlighting miR-34a as a new therapeutic target and biomarker in COPD and other oxidative stress-driven aging diseases

Executive function in first-episode schizophrenia

BACKGROUND: We tested the hypothesis that schizophrenia is primarily a frontostriatal disorder by examining executive function in first-episode patients. Previous studies have shown either equal decrements in many cognitive domains or specific deficits in memory. Such studies have grouped test results or have used few executive measures, thus, possibly losing information. We, therefore, measured a range of executive ability with tests known to be sensitive to frontal lobe function. METHODS: Thirty first-episode schizophrenic patients and 30 normal volunteers, matched for age and NART IQ, were tested on computerized test of planning, spatial working memory and attentional set shifting from the Cambridge Automated Neuropsychological Test Battery. Computerized and traditional tests of memory were also administered for comparison. RESULTS: Patients were worse on all tests but the profile was non-uniform. A componential analysis indicated that the patients were characterized by a poor ability to think ahead and organize responses but an intact ability to switch attention and inhibit prepotent responses. Patients also demonstrated poor memory, especially for free recall of a story and associate learning of unrelated word pairs. CONCLUSIONS: In contradistinction to previous studies, schizophrenic patients do have profound executive impairments at the beginning of the illness. However, these concern planning and strategy use rather than attentional set shifting, which is generally unimpaired. Previous findings in more chronic patients, of severe attentional set shifting impairment, suggest that executive cognitive deficits are progressive during the course of schizophrenia. The finding of severe mnemonic impairment at first episode suggests that cognitive deficits are not restricted to one cognitive domain