2 research outputs found
Reliability prediction for aircraft fleet operators: A Bayesian network model that combines supplier estimates, maintenance data and expert judgement
Reliability prediction is crucial for aircraft maintenance and spare part inventory decisions. These predictions are made based on operational data collected by fleet operators or design life estimates provided by aircraft suppliers. Purely data-driven predictions have limited use especially when the fleet is young, hence the data is scarce. In this case, design life estimates are used for predicting reliability often by assuming a constant failure rate. This strong assumption is not necessarily valid for all components. This paper proposes a Bayesian Network (BN) modelling framework that systematically combines design life estimates, operational data, and expert judgement for reliability prediction of aircraft subsystems. The proposed BN adjusts the design life estimates based on expert judgement regarding supplier and manufacturing quality and revises it based on operational data. We used the BN to predict the reliability of a large aircraft fleet by using failure and maintenance data provided by a large fleet operator. We compared the predictive performance of the BN to using only data-driven approaches and to using only design life estimates provided by the aircraft supplier. The BN model provides consistently accurate reliability predictions compared to design-life estimates and purely data-driven approaches especially when the available data is scarce.</p
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The role of honor concerns in disclosing (vs. Hiding) COVID-19 diagnosis: insights from TĂĽrkiye
Members of honor cultures value engaging in moral behaviors and managing their social image to maintain their honor. These two goals reflect reputation and integrity concerns, which also have bearing on gender roles. In the current study, we examined a) evaluations of women and men described as diagnosed with COVID-19 and as either hiding or disclosing their diagnosis, b) the moderating role of honor concerns (reputation and integrity) and the gender of the infected person in these evaluations, and c) the relationship between honor concerns and individuals’ own disclosure preferences among participants living in Türkiye, a country that exemplifies an honor culture. Findings revealed that participants with stronger reputation concerns evaluated a woman’s hiding behavior more favorably than that of a man’s. Moreover, higher integrity concerns were associated with lower levels of participants’ own preference to hide a diagnosis for both men and women, whereas reputation concerns were positively associated with a preference for hiding a diagnosis among men only. Furthermore, a content analysis of participants’ open-ended explanations of their views on women’s and men’s motivation to hide a diagnosis revealed further evidence for the gendered nature of reputation concerns. Our findings point to the importance of prioritizing integrity concerns (and downplaying reputation concerns) in public health campaigns in honor cultures