Exports,growth and causality. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004

This paper investigates the causal relationship between real export and real GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that in the period prior to WW1 the growth of the Italian economy led that of exports, while in the post-WW2 period the causal relationship was reversed with the expansion of exports that determined the growth of the Italian economy.Export led growth hypothesis; unit root tests; cointegration analysis; Granger – causality

Exports and Italy’s economic development: a long-run perspective (1863-2004)

This paper investigates the relationship between real export and real GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that these variables comove in the long run but the direction of causality depends on the level of economic development: in the period prior to WW1 the growth of the Italian economy led that of exports, while in the post-WW2 period the causal relationship was reversed with the expansion of exports that determined the growth of the Italian economyExport led growth hypothesis, unit root tests, cointegration analysis, Granger – causality

Exports, imports and growth. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004

The nexus between trade and economic growth in Italy has been widely debated by historiography. However, there are not long run analysis on this topic that cover the whole span from Unification to present days. This paper contributes to fill this gap by investigating the relationship between real exports, imports and GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that these variables comove in the long run but the direction of causality varies across time. In the period prior to the First World War import growth led GDP growth that in turn led export growth. Conversely, in the post-Second World War period we have a strong bidirectionality between imports and exports consequent on the increase in intra-industry trade. We also find a weak support for export-led growth and growth-led imports. This suggests that exports were not the only or the main driver of economic growth. There was probably a multiplicity of factors at work, among which high rates of capital formation and the expansion of internal demand probably stood outTrade; economic growth; Italy; unit root tests; cointegration analysis; Granger-causality;

Exports and Italy’s economic development: a long-run perspective (1863-2004)

This paper investigates the relationship between real export and real GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that these variables comove in the long run but the direction of causality depends on the level of economic development: in the period prior to WW1 the growth of the Italian economy led that of exports, while in the post-WW2 period the causal relationship was reversed with the expansion of exports that determined the growth of the Italian economyExport led growth hypothesis, unit root tests, cointegration analysis, Granger – causality

Transnational social capital and FDI. Evidence from Italian associations worldwide

Emigrant associations abroad are structured nodes of social networks; they are manifestations of a transnational social capital. Italian associations are numerous, spread across several countries, in some cases they exist since the end of the nineteenth century, and may count on high numbers of members. Also, they are robustly tied to the home country. This paper assesses the effects of Italian associations abroad on the bilateral FDI between Italy and the countries of settlement of Italian diaspora. The main results are that these effects are positive and strongly significant, especially for the inward FDI and relatively to the countries with the oldest associations.international migration; FDI; Italy

Italian Diaspora and Foreign Direct Investment: A Cliometric Perspective

Recent economic literature highlights that migrant networks help to overcome the informal barriers that exist in the international markets and boost international investment. Empirical studies on different countries confirm this prediction. This paper estimates (OLS-IV) an econometric model to study the impact of both emigration and immigration on Italy’s bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI). The main result is that only the Italian diaspora has a significant positive effect on Italy’s both inward and outward FDI. A theoretical framework, a profile of the diaspora and of immigration in Italy and some exemplary entrepreneurial histories help to interpret the econometric evidence.International Investments, Migrant Networks, Entrepreneurial Histories

Transnational social capital and FDI.Evidence from Italian associations worldwide

Emigrant associations abroad are structured nodes of social networks; they are manifestations of a transnational social capital. Italian associations are numerous, spread across several countries, in some cases they exist since the end of the nineteenth century, and may count on high numbers of members. Also, they are robustly tied to the home country. This paper assesses the effects of Italian associations abroad on the bilateral FDI between Italy and the countries of settlement of Italian diaspora. The main results are that these effects are positive and strongly significant, especially for the inward FDI and relatively to the countries with the oldest associationsinternational migration, FDI, Italy

Capital inflows, current accounts and the investment cycle in Italy

Relying on a new dataset, this paper examines the genesis of current account fluctuations and the investment cycle in Italy. We perform a Granger causality test that shows that the persistent current account deficits in the years from unification to World War I were generated by variations in capital inflows, as hypothesized by Fenoaltea, and not by the dynamics of GDP, as in the Bonelli-Cafagna model. Finally, we show that these capital inflows prompted an industrial investment cycle in equipment and machinery but not - as claimed by Fenoaltea (1988) - a general investment cycle which included also construction and more volatile components of investment. These patterns held under both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes

Italy's current account sustainability: a long run perspective, 1861-2000

This paper analyzes the sustainability of Italy\u2019s current accounts from 1861 to 2000. Whether or not we find empirical support to sustainability depends on the statistical condition of stationarity of the current account series. Non stationarity of the current accounts implies the economy has violated its intertemporal budget constraint. Unit root tests to study the stationarity of Italy\u2019s current accounts suggest that in the long run (1861 to 2000) Italy\u2019s external position was sustainable: the Italian economy seems to have used the external deficits (surpluses) to smooth its aggregate consumption. The persistent current account deficits in the shorter 1861-1913 period were generated by foreign capital inflows that allowed investment to rise and, in turn, to prompt the nation\u2019s productivity and economic efficiency. Therefore, they do not seem to have curbed economic growth

Gender quotas between glass ceiling crack and firm performance: evidence from Italy's financial sector

Using a panel data of Italian corporate companies, this paper evaluates the impact of mandatory gender quotas in corporate boards in the financial sector. We find that gender quotas reduce glass ceiling barriers in this traditionally male industry, increasing women’s presence on boards of both companies targeted by the law and in those that are not, with positive spillover effects on this subsample. We also find that the higher women’s presence on boards has different impacts on firms’ financial performance: it has a negative effect on the financial sector as a whole and a positive one on firms with small boards. Our results support the introduction of gender quotas, given its positive spillover effects on glass ceiling barriers and on the overall increased women’s presence on boards