Exports,growth and causality. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004

Abstract

This paper investigates the causal relationship between real export and real GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that in the period prior to WW1 the growth of the Italian economy led that of exports, while in the post-WW2 period the causal relationship was reversed with the expansion of exports that determined the growth of the Italian economy.Export led growth hypothesis; unit root tests; cointegration analysis; Granger – causality