5 research outputs found

    Examining wheat yield sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes for a large ensemble of crop models using impact response surfaces

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    Impact response surfaces (IRSs) depict the response of an impact variable to changes in two explanatory variables as a plotted surface. Here, IRSs of spring and winter wheat yields were constructed from a 25-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models. Twenty-one models were calibrated by different groups using a common set of calibration data, with calibrations applied independently to the same models in three cases. The sensitivity of modelled yield to changes in temperature and precipitation was tested by systematically modifying values of 1981-2010 baseline weather data to span the range of 19 changes projected for the late 21st century at three locations in Europe

    Probabilistic assessment of adaptation options from an ensemble of crop models: a case study in the Mediterranean

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    Effective adaptation of agricultural systems to climate change has to: Consider local specificities; provide sound and practical information and deal with the uncertainty We present a methodology for assessing different aspects of adaptation. Our study case is adaptation of winter wheat in the Mediterranean

    Probabilistic assessment of adaptation options from an ensemble of crop models: a case study in the Mediterranean

    Get PDF
    Effective adaptation of agricultural systems to climate change has to: Consider local specificities; provide sound and practical information and deal with the uncertainty We present a methodology for assessing different aspects of adaptation. Our study case is adaptation of winter wheat in the Mediterranean
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