Economics and adoption of conservation agriculture in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique

Conservation Agriculture (CA) is an agro-ecological approach to sustainable production intensification. Low rates of adoption have plagued Sub-Saharan-Africa despite years of promotion. A polarised debate has emerged centred on the farm-level costs/benefits (particularly for the poorest farmers), including when benefits occur, labour requirements (including weeding) and in particular whether CA requires high inputs. The thesis draws on a household survey of 197 farmers in Metuge district (Cabo Delgado, Mozambique) in tandem with participatory stakeholder interviews administered in 2014. Probabilistic cash flow analysis compares CA and conventional cropping for different crop mixes and planning horizons. Secondly, a socio-psychological model explores intention to use CA. A novel Monte-Carlo Markov chain algorithm using socio-psychological factors and conventional determinants of adoption is also incorporated in order to explore adoption dynamics. The thesis finds evidence of benefits for the poorest farmers and in the short-term under CA (without high inputs) but which are dependent on crop mix and opportunity cost of labour assumed. Socio-psychological factors play a strong role in the adoption process; farmers’ attitude is found to be the strongest predictor of intention to use CA mediated through key cognitive drivers such as increased yields, reduction in labour, improvement in soil quality and reduction in weeds (which are precisely the areas of current contention). Interestingly, Farmer Field School participants have a significantly stronger positive attitude towards CA. The employment of the novel Monte-Carlo estimation (as do the stakeholder interviews) also identify Farmer Field School membership, the role of village facilitators in engaging with farmers on CA and willingness to be part of a group play an important role in adoption. Importance of labour reduction, soil quality improvement and perceptions of pests also significantly influence adoption suggesting social learning interactions (taking account of these issues) vis-à-vis an appropriate innovation system are critical to CA usage

Smallholder farmers' motivations for using Conservation Agriculture and the roles of yield, labour and soil fertility in decision making

Conservation Agriculture (CA) has been widely promoted as an agro-ecological approach to sustainable production intensification. Despite numerous initiatives promoting CA across Sub-Saharan Africa there have been low rates of adoption. Furthermore, there has been strong debate concerning the ability of CA to provide benefits to smallholder farmers regarding yield, labour, soil quality and weeding, particularly where farmers are unable to access external inputs such as herbicides. This research finds evidence that CA, using no external inputs, is most attractive among the very poor and that farmers are driven primarily by strong motivational factors in the key areas of current contention, namely yield, labour, soil quality and weeding time benefits. This study is the first to incorporate a quantitative socio-psychological model to understand factors driving adoption of CA. Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), it explores farmers' intention to use CA (within the next 12 months) in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique where CA has been promoted for almost a decade. The study site provides a rich population from which to examine farmers' decision making in using CA. Regression estimates show that the TPB provides a valid model of explaining farmers' intention to use CA accounting for 80% of the variation in intention. Farmers' attitude is found to be the strongest predictor of intention. This is mediated through key cognitive drivers present that influence farmers' attitude such as increased yields, reduction in labour, improvement in soil quality and reduction in weeds. Subjective norm (i.e. social pressure from referents) and perceived behavioural control also significantly influenced farmers' intention. Furthermore, path analysis identifies farmers that are members of a Farmer Field School or participants of other organisations (e.g. savings group, seed multiplication group or a specific crop/livestock association) have a significantly stronger positive attitude towards CA with the poorest the most likely users and the cohort that find it the easiest to use. This study provides improved understanding relevant to many developing countries, of smallholder farmers' adoption dynamics related to CA, and of how farmers may approach this and other ‘new’ management systems

Examining Heterogeneity of Food Fortification and Biofortification Business Models: Emerging Evidence for a Typology

Efforts to address Micronutrient deficiencies (MNDs) in lower-and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been gaining pace in recent years. Commodities such as staple foods (e.g., cereals, roots, and tubers) and condiments (e.g., salt) have been targeted as ‘vehicles’ for fortification and biofortification through numerous projects and initiatives. To date, there have been mixed experiences with delivery and coverage with very little documented on the range of business models applied in different geographies, business conditions and polities and this makes classification and measurement of success and failure difficult. This research aims to address this gap in knowledge through proposing a typology that clarifies similarities (internal heterogeneity) and differences (external heterogeneity) between models and that can allow all types to be defined by the combination of attributes. Building on a comprehensive literature review; NVivo was used to code initiatives from 34 key references (955 cases in total) which have been grouped into 17 categories. Using non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) we find evidence of four business model groupings that typify fortification initiatives: (1) Large-scale private, unregulated, (2) Mixed-Scale, private, unregulated (3) Large-scale, public-private, regulated; and (4) Large-scale, private, regulated. We characterise these four groups with country examples and suggest that this typology can help the discourse around viability of food fortification initiative

Farm-level economic analysis - Is conservation agriculture helping the poor?

Conservation Agriculture (CA) has been widely promoted as an agro-ecological approach to sustainable production intensification. Across Sub-Saharan Africa, however, there have been low rates of adoption with fierce debate over its attractiveness for resource-poor farmers. Farm-level economics has been a key component of this debate with several authors questioning whether short-term benefits can occur with CA and advocating the need for more sophisticated economic analysis when comparing CA and conventional agriculture. This has included the importance placed upon more detailed farm-level data gathering as opposed to on-farm/on-station research. This study uses farm-level budget data gathered from a cross-sectional survey of 197 farmers, for the 2013/2014 season, within a district situated in Cabo Delgado Mozambique, to compare the underlying economics of CA and conventional agriculture. The study is enriched by having observations reflecting each year of CA use i.e. first, second and third year. Probabilistic cash flow analysis is used to compare the net present value of CA compared to conventional cropping over the short and longer term for differing crop mixes. Benefits are found in the short-term under CA but these are largely dependent on crop mix and the opportunity cost of labour assumed. We further employ Monte-Carlo simulations to compare the poorest farmers' net returns under different crop mixes and risk tolerance levels. Contrary to previous research, which has mostly suggested that better-off farmers are more likely to find CA useful, we find evidence that for the cohort of farmers under study the poorest are likely to find CA beneficial for a variety of crop mixes and risk-levels including under extreme risk aversion with the full opportunity cost of labour and mulch accounted for. These findings suggest that CA can be an attractive option for a wide variety of resource levels and crop mixes including those of the very poor in similar farming systems elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa

Unpacking the ‘Business Model’ for fortification initiatives in low- and middle-income countries: Stakeholder identified drivers of success and constraints to progress

Background: Initiatives to tackle micronutrient deficiencies (MNDs) in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) have increased steadily in recent years. Commodities such as staple foods (e.g., cereals) and condiments (e.g., salt) have been targeted as ‘vehicles’ for industrial fortification through numerous projects and initiatives. However, mixed experiences with delivery, coverage and sustainability have been found. Methods: Using an online survey of 71 key stakeholders (from 35 countries) consisting of the public/private sector, academia and civil society, this study sought to unpack the ‘business model’ for fortification initiatives to identify the key drivers of success and constraints faced by stakeholders in LMICs. Bivariate analysis was conducted to identify factors associated with the coverage of the target market and the perceived success and sustainability of fortification initiatives. Results: We identified four key factors contributing to the success of fortification initiatives. The first involves the size of the firm. Large firms had a significantly higher (p 0.05) self-sustaining index (perceived level of sustainability of the fortification initiative) than smaller sized firms. In addition, a higher perceived success score (p 0.05) was associated with non-targeted initiatives compared to those specifically targeted at a certain cohort of the population, further illustrating the benefits of producing at scale. Secondly, a significant relationship was found between whether standards were enacted and the coverage of the target market by the project/firm (p 0.05).). The third key factor relates to the ability to source adequate testing for the fortified produce in-house. A positive correlation was found for post-mix in-factory testing and the self-sustaining index (p 0.05). Finally, delays to importation and high charges were cited as key constraints to the use of premix. Conclusions: We argue therefore that a successful ‘business model’ for industrial fortification initiatives invariably consist of: (i) the involvement of larger sized firms that have the advantage of benefiting from economies of scale; (ii) the availability and application of agreed standards by the producer; (iii) high quality assurance/compliance monitoring (including post-mix testing where relevant), and; (iv) the ability to procure premix in a timely/cost-effective manner. These criteria are likely to be important factors that contribute to the success of fortification initiatives in LMICs

Systems Thinking in an era of climate change: Does cognitive neuroscience hold the key to improving environmental decision making? A perspective on Climate-Smart Agriculture

Systems Thinking (ST) can be defined as a mental construct that recognises patterns and connections in a particular complex system to make the “best decision” possible. In the field of sustainable agriculture and climate change, higher degrees of ST are assumed to be associated with more successful adaptation strategies under changing conditions, and “better” environmental decision making in a number of environmental and cultural settings. Future climate change scenarios highlight the negative effects on agricultural productivity worldwide, particularly in low-income countries (LICs) situated in the Global South. Alongside this, current measures of ST are limited by their reliance on recall, and are prone to possible measurement errors. Using Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), as an example case study, in this article we explore: (i) ST from a social science perspective; (ii) cognitive neuroscience tools that could be used to explore ST abilities in the context of LICs; (iii) an exploration of the possible correlates of systems thinking: observational learning, prospective thinking/memory and the theory of planned behaviour and (iv) a proposed theory of change highlighting the integration of social science frameworks and a cognitive neuroscience perspective. We find, recent advancements in the field of cognitive neuroscience such as Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS) provide exciting potential to explore previously hidden forms of cognition, especially in a low-income country/field setting; improving our understanding of environmental decision-making and the ability to more accurately test more complex hypotheses where access to laboratory studies is severely limited. We highlight that ST may correlate with other key aspects involved in environmental decision-making and posit motivating farmers via specific brain networks would: (a) enhance understanding of CSA practices (e.g., via the frontoparietal network extending from the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) to the parietal cortex (PC) a control hub involved in ST and observational learning) such as tailoring training towards developing improved ST abilities among farmers and involving observational learning more explicitly and (b) motivate farmers to use such practices [e.g., via the network between the DLPFC and nucleus accumbens (NAc)] which mediates reward processing and motivation by focussing on a reward/emotion to engage farmers. Finally, our proposed interdisciplinary theory of change can be used as a starting point to encourage discussion and guide future research in this space

Towards agricultural innovation systems: actors, roles, linkages and constraints in the system of rice intensification (SRI) in Sierra Leone

Despite success in parts of Southern Africa and Asia, the use of the System of Rice Intensification (SRI) has remained low in many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Alongside this, an Agricultural Innovation Systems (AIS) framework has been touted as a method to support innovation processes and enable a variety of agricultural innovations to be used by large numbers of farmers. However, very little is known about the linkages/interactions between stakeholders within such AISs and which are deemed important for the AIS to function. This study seeks to understand the perceptions of the agricultural innovation system actors regarding Sustainable Rice Intensification (SRI) usage in Sierra Leone. More specifically, it examines the key actors and their roles, the patterns, and strengths of the linkages among them, as well as the perceptions towards the innovation /potential constraints faced by the actors. The study draws on several workshops and key informant interviews with 49 actors consisting of research and extension professionals from governmental and non-governmental organisations and smallholder farmers involved in the rice innovation system. Using UCINET's NetDraw for social network analysis (SNA) among innovation actors, the study finds a high level of connectedness between key actors – the Ministry of Agriculture, NGOs and farmers. The eigenvector centrality (a measure of influence within a network) was highest among NGOs, the Ministry of Agriculture and farmers respectively, which shows that these actors had the strongest influence within the SRI network. Further exploration of these ties also showed that these actors play a critical role in facilitating knowledge, resources and information flows within the network. Despite a strong level of interaction between actors and positive perceptions of the innovation, SRI usage has been unable to reach scale for a variety of reasons. The key reasons identified include: (i) the lack of interaction across levels (e.g. provincial and local) thereby limiting locally adapted techniques from emerging relevant to all regions; (ii) farmers’ limited technical skills in swamp development; (iii) a lack of funding opportunities (including private sector engagement) and (iv) the perceived labor-intensiveness of SRI techniques. Overall, this research has identified possible entry points for increasing the functioning of the innovation system and a useful methodological approach that can be applied to exploring the effectiveness of agricultural innovation systems. It also highlights the need to engage private sector actors to support the use of agricultural innovations as some services are sometimes beyond the purview of research and extension actors alone. The need for further research is also necessary to deepen the understanding of whether AIS approaches are enhancing farmers’ capacity to innovate or impeding this by encouraging embedded norms related to a transfer of technology model to perpetuate

Unpacking the drivers behind the use of the Agricultural Innovation Systems (AIS) approach: The case of rice research and extension professionals in Sierra Leone

Agriculture Innovation System (AIS) thinking and approaches are largely perceived as a sine-qua-non for the design and implementation of effective and sustainable agriculture development programmes. AIS has gained popularity in the agriculture innovation literature and has been embedded in policy documents of agriculture sector institutions in many countries. However, there is much less evidence of AIS thinking influencing the behaviours of research and extension institutions and staff ‘on the ground’. An important research gap is the need to better understand the attitudes and beliefs of extension and research professionals regarding AIS and that drive behaviours. Sierra Leone, like most developing countries, has embraced the use of AIS (at least in theory) as evident in policy documents of government institutions – the leading innovation system actors in the country. This study uses the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to assess the cognitive foundation of agricultural research scientists and extension professionals' intention to use the AIS approach related to rice innovation (the country's staple food crop). Results show there are significant differences in intention which relate to organisation affiliation, age, and gender. Moreover, those with a high intention to use the AIS approach have significantly stronger beliefs associated with the benefits of AIS including its ease of use and the positive effects it is likely to have on smallholder farmers' food security and ability to innovate. Those with a high intention to use the AIS approach also perceive stronger social pressure from key social referents such as colleagues, employers and supervisors; suggesting that policies and an organisation's vision have a significant bearing. Furthermore, the findings suggest that impediments to the use of AIS relate to lack of finance and knowledge. Unpacking these beliefs allows possible entry points to be identified which can enhance the functioning of existing AISs and newly formed ones. The findings and framework presented are useful for many developing countries where AIS approaches are being tested

Shade versus intensification: trade-off or synergy for profitability in coffee agroforestry systems?

CONTEXT Coffee agroforestry systems (shaded coffee) are considered less productive but more resilient than more intensive production systems. A persistent challenge for coffee farmers is the extreme fluctuations in coffee prices, leading to a loss of profitability and lower investment in production. There are contrasting conclusions regarding the profitability trade-off between increasing productivity through intensification and the sustainability benefits of shade tree coffee agroforestry systems. OBJECTIVE Using a typology of different intensification and sustainability coffee production strategies in Costa Rica and Guatemala, we assess the economic feasibility and sensitivity of those strategies under likely future scenarios of price and cost variability. METHODS Based on on-farm survey data from a large-scale survey of farmers with information on costs, prices and yields over ten years, a probabilistic cash flow analysis was used to create a stochastic model for net returns. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Under future price scenarios, the Net Present Value (NPV) for coffee production was greatest for the high-productivity farms with high investment and moderate shade levels. The NPV of low-investment farms was greater (and positive) for highly shaded coffee production than for low shade coffee production (which, on average, had a negative NPV), despite the two having similar levels of investment. Diversification with bananas or avocados in association with coffee only improved NPV for high-value export avocado. Despite the substantially higher production costs for the high productivity systems, they generally maintained higher probabilities of achieving a positive net cash income or achieving a living income under most labour, fertilizer or coffee price scenarios, except a 50% fall in coffee prices. Diversification effects were as sensitive to changes in labour and input costs but in most cases reduced the probability of a more pronounced negative net cash income under low coffee price scenarios. We find an increase in coffee prices by 50% was needed to enable all farmers to achieve a positive net cash income; with an increased probability of achieving returns comparable with a living wage for higher productivity systems. SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that high-investment, high-productivity coffee production systems are compatible with shade-grown production; more likely to lead to economic success and achieve positive returns under most conditions, except large falls in coffee prices. For farmers with limited capacity to invest, high-shade production systems provide a positive cash return under a broader range of price conditions than low-shade systems

Potential for conservation agriculture in the dry marginal zone of central Syria: A preliminary assessment

This paper reports on early soil related outcomes from conservation agriculture (CA) benchmark sites located within the marginal rainfed environment of agro-ecological zone 4 (annual rainfall: 200–250 mm) in pre-conflict central Syria. The outcomes reported are specifically those that relate to beneficial soil quality and water retention attributes relative to conventional tillage-based soil management practices applied to the fodder barley–livestock system, the dominant system in the zone. On-farm operational research was established to examine the impact of a barley (Hordeum vulgare) and vetch (Vicia sativa) rotation intercropped with atriplex (Atriplex halimus) and salsola (Salsola collina), under CA and conventional tillage agriculture, on the soil quality parameters and crop productivity. Preliminary results showed that CA had a positive effect on the soil quality parameters and crop performance. The soil moisture and hydraulic conductivity were higher under CA (p < 0.05), combined with improved productivity (grain and above-ground biomass) under specific crop mixes. The results suggest that despite the marginal nature of the zone, the use of CA is a viable option for the future of farmers’ livelihoods within similar localities and agro-climates, given the benefits for soil moisture and grain and straw productivity. In addition, it is likely to positively impact those in marginal environments where both pastoralism and agro-pastoralism production systems co-exist and compete for crop biomass as a main source of livestock feed. The increase in grain and straw yields vis-à-vis improvements in biophysical parameters in the CA system relative to tillage agriculture does suggest, however, that the competition with livestock for biomass is likely to reduce over time, and farmers would be able to return increased levels of straw (as stubble and residue) as mulch, given improved biomass yields