Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

The “ABC model”: a non-hydrostatic toy model for use in convective-scale data assimilation investigations

In developing methods for convective-scale data assimilation (DA) it is necessary to consider the full range of motions governed by the compressible Navier-Stokes equations (including non-hydrostatic and ageostrophic flow). These equations describe motion on a wide range of time-scales with non-linear coupling. For the purpose of developing new DA techniques that suit the convective-scale problem it is helpful to use so-called ‘toy models’ that are easy to run, and contain the same types of motion as the full equation set. Such a model needs to permit hydrostatic and geostrophic balance at large-scales, but to allow imbalance at small-scales, and in particular, it needs to exhibit intermittent convection-like behaviour. Existing ‘toy models’ are not always sufficient for investigating these issues. A simplified system of intermediate complexity derived from the Euler equations is presented, which supports dispersive gravity and acoustic modes. In this system the separation of time scales can be greatly reduced by changing the physical parameters. Unlike in existing toy models, this allows the acoustic modes to be treated explicitly, and hence inexpensively. In addition, the non-linear coupling induced by the equation of state is simplified. This means that the gravity and acoustic modes are less coupled than in conventional models. A vertical slice formulation is used which contains only dry dynamics. The model is shown to give physically reasonable results, and convective behaviour is generated by localised compressible effects. This model provides an affordable and flexible framework within which some of the complex issues of convective-scale DA can later be investigated. The model is called the “ABC model” after the three tunable parameters introduced: A (the pure gravity wave frequency), B (the modulation of the divergent term in the continuity equation), and C (defining the compressibility)

The early and late-time spectral and temporal evolution of GRB 050716

We report on a comprehensive set of observations of Gamma Ray Burst 050716, detected by the Swift satellite and subsequently followed-up rapidly in X-ray, optical and near infra-red wavebands. The prompt emission is typical of long-duration bursts, with two peaks in a time interval of T90 = 68 seconds (15 - 350 keV). The prompt emission continues at lower flux levels in the X-ray band, where several smaller flares can be seen, on top of a decaying light curve that exhibits an apparent break around 220 seconds post trigger. This temporal break is roughly coincident with a spectral break. The latter can be related to the extrapolated evolution of the break energy in the prompt gamma-ray emission, and is possibly the manifestation of the peak flux break frequency of the internal shock passing through the observing band. A possible 3 sigma change in the X-ray absorption column is also seen during this time. The late-time afterglow behaviour is relatively standard, with an electron distribution power-law index of p = 2 there is no noticable temporal break out to at least 10 days. The broad-band optical/nIR to X-ray spectrum indicates a redshift of z ~> 2 for this burst, with a host-galaxy extinction value of E(B-V) ~ 0.7 that prefers an SMC-like extinction curve.Comment: Accepted to MNRAS. 8 pages, 5 figure

Characterising the background errors for the boundary-layer capping inversion

The one-dimensional variational assimilation of vertical temperature information in the presence of a boundary-layer capping inversion is studied. For an optimal analysis of the vertical temperature profile, an accurate representation of the background error covariances is essential. The background error covariances are highly flow-dependent due to the variability in the presence, structure and height of the boundary-layer capping inversion. Flow-dependent estimates of the background error covariances are shown by studying the spread in an ensemble of forecasts. A forecast of the temperature profile (used as a background state) may have a significant error in the position of the capping inversion with respect to observations. It is shown that the assimilation of observations may weaken the inversion structure in the analysis if only magnitude errors are accounted for as is the case for traditional data assimilation methods used for operational weather prediction. The positional error is treated explicitly here in a new data assimilation scheme to reduce positional error, in addition to the traditional framework to reduce magnitude error. The distribution of the positional error of the background inversion is estimated for use with the new scheme

“A peculiar time in my life”: making sense of illness and recovery with gynaecological cancer

Purpose: Worldwide there are nearly 1.1 million new cases of gynaecological cancer annually. In England, uterine, ovarian and cervical cancers comprize the third most common type of new cancer in women. Research with gynaecological cancer patients within 6 months of diagnosis is rare, as is data collection that is roughly contemporaneous with treatment. Our aim was to explore the experiences of women who were, at study entry, within 6 weeks of surgery or were undergoing chemotherapy or radiotherapy. Methods: An interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) of data from 16 women in five focus groups was conducted in the UK, exploring women’s experiences of being diagnosed with and treated for gynaecological cancer. Results: Participants conceptualized their experiences temporally, from the shock of diagnosis, through their cancer treatment, to thinking about recovery. They tried to make sense of diagnosis, even with treatment being complete. In the context of the Self-Regulation Model, these women were struggling to interpret a changing and multi-faceted illness identity, and attempting to return to pre-illness levels of health. Conclusions: This study adds to this under-studied time period in cancer survivorship. The results suggest that survivors’ goals may change from returning to pre-illness status to reformulating goals as survival time increases.N/