Comparative whole genome analysis reveals re-emergence of human Wa-like and DS-1-like G3 rotaviruses after Rotarix vaccine introduction in Malawi

G3 rotaviruses rank among the most common rotavirus strains worldwide in humans and animals. However, despite a robust long-term rotavirus surveillance system from 1997 at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital in Blantyre, Malawi, these strains were only detected from 1997 to 1999 and then disappeared and re-emerged in 2017, five years after the introduction of the Rotarix rotavirus vaccine. Here we analysed representative 27 whole genome sequences (G3P[4], n=20; G3P[6], n=1; and G3P[8], n=6) randomly selected each month between November 2017 and August 2019 to understand how G3 strains re-emerged in Malawi. We found four genotype constellations that were associated with the emergent G3 strains and co-circulated in Malawi post-Rotarix vaccine introduction: G3P[4] and G3P[6] strains with the DS-1-like genetic backbone genes (G3-P[4]-I2-R2-C2-M2-A2-N2-T2-E2-H2) and G3-P[6]-I2-R2-C2-M2-A2-N2-T2-E2-H2), G3P[8] strains with the Wa-like genetic backbone genes (G3-P[8]-I1-R1-C1-M1-A1-N1-T1-E1-H1), and reassortant G3P[4] strains consisting of the DS-1-like genetic backbone genes and a Wa-like NSP2 (N1) gene (G3-P[4]-I2-R2-C2-M2-A2-N1-T2-E2-H2). Time-resolved phylogenetic trees demonstrated that the most recent common ancestor for each RNA segment of the emergent G3 strains was between 1996 and 2012, possibly through introductions from outside the country due to the limited genetic similarity with G3 strains which circulated before their disappearance in the late 1990s. Further genomic analysis revealed that the reassortant DS-1-like G3P[4] strains acquired a Wa-like NSP2 genome segment (N1 genotype) through intergenogroup reassortment; an artiodactyl-like VP3 through intergenogroup interspecies reassortment; and VP6, NSP1 and NSP4 segments through intragenogroup reassortment likely before importation into Malawi. Additionally, the emergent G3 strains contain amino acid substitutions within the antigenic regions of the VP4 proteins which could potentially impact the binding of rotavirus vaccine-induced antibodies. Altogether, our findings show that multiple strains with either Wa-like or DS-1-like genotype constellations have driven the re-emergence of G3 strains. The findings also highlight the role of human mobility and genome reassortment events in the cross-border dissemination and evolution of rotavirus strains in Malawi necessitating the need for long-term genomic surveillance of rotavirus in high disease burden settings to inform disease prevention and control

Two decades of malaria control in Malawi: Geostatistical Analysis of the changing malaria prevalence from 2000-2022

Background Malaria remains a public health problem in Malawi and has a serious socio-economic impact on the population. In the past two decades, available malaria control measures have been substantially scaled up, such as insecticide-treated bed nets, artemisinin-based combination therapies, and, more recently, the introduction of the malaria vaccine, the RTS,S/AS01. In this paper, we describe the epidemiology of malaria for the last two decades to understand the past transmission and set the scene for the elimination agenda. Methods A collation of parasite prevalence surveys conducted between the years 2000 and 2022 was done. A spatio-temporal geostatistical model was fitted to predict the yearly malaria risk for children aged 2–10 years (PfPR 2–10) at 1×1 km spatial resolutions. Parameter estimation was done using the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood methods. District level prevalence estimates adjusted for population are calculated for the years 2000 to 2022. Results A total of 2,595 sampled unique locations from 2000 to 2022 were identified through the data collation exercise. This represents 70,565 individuals that were sampled in the period. In general, the PfPR2_10 declined over the 22 years. The mean modeled national PfPR2_10 in 2000 was 43.93 % (95% CI:17.9 to 73.8%) and declined to 19.2% (95%CI 7.49 to 37.0%) in 2022. The smoothened estimates of PfPR2_10 indicate that malaria prevalence is very heterogeneous with hotspot areas concentrated on the southern shores of Lake Malawi and the country's central region. Conclusions The last two decades are associated with a decline in malaria prevalence, highly likely associated with the scale up of control interventions. The country should move towards targeted malaria control approaches informed by surveillance data

The effects of remittances on household food nutrition security in the context of multiple shocks in Malawi

AbstractThe increase in the incidence and intensity of multiple shocks emanating from various fronts has left households vulnerable to various upheavals, case in point, food shortage—a prerequisite of food insecurity and poor nutrition. In analysing the nexus between remittances and food security and nutrition in the context of shocks, the paper adopts and links the household utility framework to the insurance hypothesis from the new economic labour migration theory. Using the coping strategy index, food consumption score, and household dietary diversity, we assess the effects of remittances on food security and nutrition in the context of shocks. The novelty of this paper is the creation of a shock index that captures the intensity of correlated multiple shocks that affect households. We concomitantly capture overall remittances, and disaggregated the remittances based on form and location. By employing integrated household survey round 5 data, and various econometric techniques, the paper finds that remittances are only effective in improving household food and nutrition security for households facing more intense multiple shocks but have no effect on dietary diversity. The paper therefore reveals the importance of remittances as a strategy in combating food insecurity and poor nutrition in the context of household shocks

Malaria Burden Stratification in Malawi- A report of a consultative workshop to inform the 2023-2030 Malawi Malaria Strategic Plan

Background: Malawi's National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) is developing a new strategic plan for 2023-2030 to combat malaria and recognizes that a blanket approach to malaria interventions is no longer feasible. To inform this new strategy, the NMCP set up a task force comprising 18 members from various sectors, which convened a meeting to stratify the malaria burden in Malawi and recommend interventions for each stratum. Methods: The burden stratification workshop took place from November 29 to December 2, 2022, in Blantyre, Malawi, and collated essential data on malaria burden indicators, such as incidence, prevalence, and mortality. Workshop participants reviewed the malaria burden and intervention coverage data to describe the current status and identified the districts as a appropriate administrative level for stratification and action. Two scenarios were developed for the stratification, based on composites of three variables. Scenario 1 included incidence, prevalence, and under-five all-cause mortality, while Scenario 2 included total malaria cases, prevalence, and under-five all-cause mortality counts. The task force developed four burden strata (highest, high, moderate, and low) for each scenario, resulting in a final list of districts assigned to each stratum. Results: The task force concluded with 10 districts in the highest-burden stratum (Nkhotakota, Salima, Mchinji, Dowa, Ntchisi, Mwanza, Likoma, Lilongwe, Kasungu and Mangochi) 11 districts in the high burden stratum (Chitipa, Rumphi, Nkhata Bay, Dedza, Ntcheu, Neno, Thyolo, Nsanje, Zomba, Mzimba and Mulanje) and seven districts in the moderate burden stratum (Karonga, Chikwawa, Balaka, Machinga, Phalombe, Blantyre, and Chiradzulu). There were no districts in the low-burden stratum. Conclusion: The next steps for the NMCP are to review context-specific issues driving malaria transmission and recommend interventions for each stratum. Overall, this burden stratification workshop provides a critical foundation for developing a successful malaria strategic plan for Malawi

Two decades of malaria control in Malawi: Geostatistical Analysis of the changing malaria prevalence from 2000-2022 [version 2; peer review: 1 approved, 3 approved with reservations]

Background Malaria remains a public health problem in Malawi and has a serious socio-economic impact on the population. In the past two decades, available malaria control measures have been substantially scaled up, such as insecticide-treated bed nets, artemisinin-based combination therapies, and, more recently, the introduction of the malaria vaccine, the RTS,S/AS01. In this paper, we describe the epidemiology of malaria for the last two decades to understand the past transmission and set the scene for the elimination agenda. Methods A collation of parasite prevalence surveys conducted between the years 2000 and 2022 was done. A spatio-temporal geostatistical model was fitted to predict the yearly malaria risk for children aged 2–10 years (PfPR 2–10) at 1×1 km spatial resolutions. Parameter estimation was done using the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method. District-level prevalence estimates adjusted for population are calculated for the years 2000 to 2022. Results A total of 2,595 sampled unique locations from 2000 to 2022 were identified through the data collation exercise. This represents 70,565 individuals that were sampled in the period. In general, the PfPR2_10 declined over the 22 years. The mean modelled national PfPR2_10 in 2000 was 43.93 % (95% CI:17.9 to 73.8%) and declined to 19.2% (95%CI 7.49 to 37.0%) in 2022. The smoothened estimates of PfPR2_10 indicate that malaria prevalence is very heterogeneous with hotspot areas concentrated on the southern shores of Lake Malawi and the country's central region. Conclusions The last two decades are associated with a decline in malaria prevalence, highly likely associated with the scale-up of control interventions. The country should move towards targeted malaria control approaches informed by surveillance data