Measuring the impact of antiretroviral therapy roll-out on population level fertility in three African countries

BackgroundUNAIDS official estimates of national HIV prevalence are based on trends observed in antenatal clinic surveillance, after adjustment for the reduced fertility of HIV positive women. Uptake of ART may impact on the fertility of HIV positive women, implying a need to re-estimate the adjustment factors used in these calculations. We analyse the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision on population-level fertility in Southern and East Africa, comparing trends in HIV infected women against the secular trends observed in uninfected women.MethodsWe used fertility data from four community-based demographic and HIV surveillance sites: Kisesa (Tanzania), Masaka and Rakai (Uganda) and uMkhanyakude (South Africa). All births to women aged 15–44 years old were included in the analysis, classified by mother’s age and HIV status at time of birth, and ART availability in the community. Calendar time period of data availability relative to ART Introduction varied across the sites, from 5 years prior to ART roll-out, to 9 years after. Calendar time was classified according to ART availability, grouped into pre ART, ART introduction (available in at least one health facility serving study site) and ART available (available in all designated health facilities serving study site). We used Poisson regression to calculate age adjusted fertility rate ratios over time by HIV status, and investigated the interaction between ART period and HIV status to ascertain whether trends over time were different for HIV positive and negative women.ResultsAge-adjusted fertility rates declined significantly over time for HIV negative women in all four studies. However HIV positives either had no change in fertility (Masaka, Rakai) or experienced a significant increase over the same period (Kisesa, uMkhanyakude). HIV positive fertility was significantly lower than negative in both the pre ART period (age adjusted fertility rate ratio (FRR) range 0.51 95%CI 0.42–0.61 to 0.73 95%CI 0.64–0.83) and when ART was widely available (FRR range 0.57 95%CI 0.52–0.62 to 0.83 95%CI 0.78–0.87), but the difference has narrowed. The interaction terms describing the difference in trends between HIV positives and negatives are generally significant.ConclusionsDifferences in fertility between HIV positive and HIV negative women are narrowing over time as ART becomes more widely available in these communities. Routine adjustment of ANC data for estimating national HIV prevalence will need to allow for the impact of treatment

Health & Demographic Surveillance System Profile: The Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Magu HDSS).

The Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Magu HDSS) is part of Kisesa OpenCohort HIV Study located in a rural area of North-Western Tanzania. Since its establishment in 1994, information on pregnancies, births, marriages, migrations and deaths have been monitored and updated between one and three times a year by trained fieldworkers. Other research activities implemented in the cohort include: sero surveys which have been conducted every 2-3 years to collect socioeconomic data, HIV sero status and health knowledge attitude and behaviour in adults aged 15 years or more living in the area; verbal autopsy (VA) interviews conducted to establish cause of death in all deaths encountered in the area; Llnking data collected at health facilities to community-based data; monitoring voluntary counselling and testing (VCT); and assessing uptake of antiretroviral treatment (ART). In addition, within the community, qualitative studies have been conducted to address issues linked to HIV stigma, the perception of ART access and adherence.In 2014, the population was over 35 000 individuals. Magu HDSS has contributed to Tanzanian estimates of fertility and mortality, and is a member of the INDEPTH network. Demographic data for Magu HDSS are available via the INDEPTH Network's Sharing and Accessing Repository (iSHARE) and applications to access HDSS data for collaborative analysis are encouraged

Open-access for existing LMIC demographic surveillance data using DDI

Open-access for existing LMIC demographic surveillance data using DDI</jats:p

Enrollment in HIV Care and Treatment Clinic and Associated Factors Among HIV Diagnosed Patients in Magu District, Tanzania.

HIV care and treatment clinics (CTC) are important for management of HIV morbidity and mortality, and to reduce HIV transmission. Enrollment in HIV care and treatment clinics remains low in many developing countries. We followed up 632 newly diagnosed HIV patients aged 15 years and above from Magu District, Tanzania. Logistic regression was used to assess factors significantly associated with enrollment for CTC services. Kaplan-Meier plots and log-rank tests were used to evaluate differences in timing uptake of services. Among 632 participants, 214 (33.9%) were enrolled in CTC, and of those enrolled 120 (56.6%) took longer than 3 months to enroll. Those living in more rural villages were less likely to be enrolled than in the villages with semi-urban settings (OR 0.36; 95% CI 0.17-0.76). Moreover, those with age group 35-44 years and with age group 45 years and above were 2 times higher odds compared to those with age group 15-24 years, (OR 2.03; 95% CI 1.05-3.91) and (OR 2.69; 95% CI 1.40-5.18) respectively. Enrollment in the CTC in Tanzania is low. To increase uptake of antiretroviral therapy, it is critical to improve linkage between HIV testing and care services, and to rollout these services into the primary health facilities

Cascade of care for HIV-seroconverters in rural Tanzania: a longitudinal study.

We examined the HIV care cascade in a community-based cohort study in Kisesa, Magu, Tanzania. We analyzed the proportion achieving each stage of the cascade - Seroconversion, Awareness of HIV status, Enrollment in Care and Antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation - and estimated the median and interquartile range for the time for progression to the next stage. Modified Poisson regression was used to estimate prevalence risk ratios for enrollment in care and initiation of ART. From 2006 to 2017, 175 HIV-seroconverters were identified. 140 (80%) knew their HIV status, of whom 97 (69.3%) were enrolled in HIV care, and 87 (49.7%) had initiated ART. Time from seroconversion to awareness of HIV status was 731.3 [475.5-1345.8] days. Time from awareness to enrollment was 7 [0-64] days, and from enrollment to ART initiation was 19 [3-248] days. There were no demographic differences in enrollment in care or ART initiation. Efforts have been focusing on shortening time from seroconversion to diagnosis, mostly by increasing the number of testing clinics available. We recommend increased systematic testing to reduce time from seroconversion to awareness of status, and by doing so speed up enrollment into care. Interventions that increase enrollment are likely to have the most impact in achieving UNAIDS targets

Impact of linkage quality on inferences drawn from analyses using imperfectly matched data with high rates of linkage errors

Introduction Studies based on high-quality linked data in developed countries show that residual linkage errors impact the bias and precision of subsequent analyses. Since 2015, we conducted point-of-contact interactive record linkage (PIRL) between serological survey data and manually digitised medical records with low data quality from three clinics in rural Tanzania. Objectives and Approach We sought to determine the impact of the substantial linkage errors made by automated probabilistic linkage (a commonly used, less accurate, but much cheaper alternative to PIRL) on the bias and precision of inferences drawn from Cox regression analyses, comparing time from a positive HIV diagnostic test to registration at a local HIV care and treatment clinic (CTC) by testing modality (sero-survey vs. clinic). Using PIRL links as the gold standard, we quantified false/missed matches, compared characteristics between linked and unlinked data, and evaluated regression estimates at low, medium, and high (25th, 50th, and 75th percentile) match score thresholds. Results Between 2015-2017, 297 and 147 individuals with gold standard links received HIV+ test results in sero-surveys and clinics, respectively. Automated probabilistic linkage correctly identified 276 individuals (positive predictive value [PPV]=62%) at the low threshold and 43 individuals (PPV=96%) at the high threshold. At the lowest threshold, false matches were more likely to be clinic testers and less likely to register at CTC. These differences attenuated with increased threshold. Testing modality was significantly associated with time to CTC registration in the gold standard data (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 6.42, 95%CI 4.45-9.28). Increasing false matches progressively weakened the association (low threshold: HR 4.99, 95%CI 3.45-7.21). Increases in missed matches were strongly correlated with a reduction in the precision of coefficient estimates (R-squared=0.94; p=0.0001). Conclusion/Implications While the significance of inferences did not change, a clear direction of bias was identified. High rates of false matches in this setting reduced the magnitude of the association; missed matches reduced precision. Adjusting for these biases could provide more robust results using data with considerable linkage errors

Point-of-contact interactive record linkage (PIRL) between demographic surveillance and health facility data in rural Tanzania.

INTRODUCTION: Health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) have been an invaluable resource for monitoring the health status of populations, but often contain self-reported health service utilisation, which are subject to reporting bias. OBJECTIVE: To implement point-of-contact interactive record linkage (PIRL) between demographic and health facility systems data, characterise attributes associated with (un)successful record linkage, and compare findings with a fully automated retrospective linkage approach. METHODS: Individuals visiting the Kisesa Health Centre were matched to their HDSS records during a short up-take interview in the waiting area of the health facility. The search algorithm was used to rank potential matches, from which the true match(es) were selected after consultation with the patient. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify characteristics associated with being matched to an HDSS record. Records matched based on respondent's clarifications were subsequently used as the gold-standard to evaluate fully automated retrospective record linkage by calculating sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV). RESULTS: Among 2,624 individuals who reportedly lived in the HDSS coverage area, we matched 2,206 (84.1%) to their HDSS records. Characteristics associated with a higher odds of being matched were increased age (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.02, 1.12; per 5-year increment), a later consent into the study (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.37, 3.12; in the most recent six-month period), and fieldworker level of experience. The main drivers of the linkage algorithm were name, sex, year of birth, village, sub-village, and household member name. At the lowest match score threshold, automated retrospective linkage would have only correctly identified and linked 55% (1440/2612) of the records with a PPV of 55% (1440/2612). CONCLUSION: Where resources are available, PIRL is a viable approach to link HDSS and other administrative data sources that outperforms purely retrospective approaches

The prevalence and incidence of HIV in the ART era (2006-2016) in North West Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan countries bear a disproportionate percentage of HIV infections and HIV-related deaths despite the efforts to strengthen HIV prevention and treatments services, including ART. It is important to demonstrate how these services have contributed to reducing the epidemic using available population data. METHODS: We estimated the prevalence and incidence rates from a cohort running over 23 years in Magu District, Mwanza Region-North West Tanzania. Adults 15 years and over who were residents of the Kisesa observational HIV cohort study between 2006 and 2016 were eligible for inclusion. Survival analysis was used to calculate person-time at risk, incidence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Cox regression models were used for the risk factor analyses disaggregated by sex and age group. RESULTS: The HIV prevalence in the sero-surveys decreased from 7.2% in 2006/07 to 6.6% in 2016, with a notable decrease of over 50% for both men and women aged 15-24 years. The incidence rate for HIV was estimated to be 5.5 (95% CI 4.6-6.6) per 1,000 person-years in women compared to 4.6 (95% CI 3.5-5.8) in men, with a decrease over time. Despite the availability of ART services, the uptake is still small. CONCLUSIONS: New infections are still occurring, with high HIV incidence in individuals aged below 45 years. With new guidelines and the 95-95-95 UNAIDS target, prevalence and incidence must be adequately assessed. In addition, there is a need for additional efforts to assess the impact of HIV/AIDS prevention programmes and intervention services, especially in these areas where resources are limited

Point-of-contact Interactive Record Linkage (PIRL): A software tool to prospectively link demographic surveillance and health facility data.

Linking a health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) to data from a health facility that serves the HDSS population generates a research infrastructure for directly observed data on access to and utilization of health facility services. Many HDSS sites, however, are in areas that lack unique national identifiers or suffer from data quality issues, such as incomplete records, spelling errors, and name and residence changes, all of which complicate record linkage approaches when applied retrospectively. We developed Point-of-contact Interactive Record Linkage (PIRL) software that is used to prospectively link health records from a local health facility to an HDSS in rural Tanzania. This prospective approach to record linkage is carried out in the presence of the individual whose records are being linked, which has the advantage that any uncertainty surrounding their identity can be resolved during a brief interaction, whereby extraneous information (e.g., household membership) can be referred to as an additional criterion to adjudicate between multiple potential matches. Our software uses a probabilistic record linkage algorithm based on the Fellegi-Sunter model to search and rank potential matches in the HDSS data source. Key advantages of this software are its ability to perform multiple searches for the same individual and save patient-specific notes that are retrieved during subsequent clinic visits. A search on the HDSS database (n=110,000) takes less than 15 seconds to complete. Excluding time spent obtaining written consent, the median duration of time we spend with each patient is six minutes. In this setting, a purely automated retrospective approach to record linkage would have only correctly identified about half of the true matches and resulted in high linkage errors; therefore highlighting immediate benefit of conducting interactive record linkage using the PIRL software

Prevalence and correlates of depression and anxiety symptoms among out-of-school adolescent girls and young women in Tanzania: A cross-sectional study

BackgroundIn sub-Saharan Africa, adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) who are out of school are at higher risk of depressive and anxiety disorders compared to their school attending peers. However, little is known about the prevalence and risk factors for these conditions among out-of-school AGYW. This study examines the prevalence of depression and anxiety and associated factors in a community sample of out-of-school AGYW in Tanzania.MethodsA cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from an on-going cluster randomized controlled trial in North-West Tanzania was conducted. A total of 3013 out-of-school AGYW aged 15 to 23 years from 30 clusters were included. Anxiety and depression were assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-4), a tool comprising of PHQ-2 and Generalized Anxiety Disorders (GAD-2) screeners. Data were collected using Audio Computer-Assisted Self-Interview (ACASI). A random-effects logistic regression was fitted for binary outcomes and an ordinal logistic regression model with robust variance was used to adjust for clustering at the village level. Logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression were used to explore the associations between mental disorders symptoms and other factors.ResultsThe prevalence of depressive (PHQ-2 ≥ 3) and anxiety (GAD-2 ≥ 3) symptoms among out-of-school AGYW were 36% (95% CI 33.8%-37.3%) and 31% (95% CI 29.0%-32.3%) respectively. Further, using the PHQ-4 tool, 33% (95% CI 30.8%-34.2%) had mild, 20% (95% CI 18.3%-21.1%) moderate and 6% (95% CI 5.5%-7.2%) had severe symptoms of anxiety and depression. After adjusting for other covariates, two factors most strongly associated with having anxiety symptoms were violence experience from sexual partners (AOR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.36-1.96) and HIV positive status (AOR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.03-2.31). Likewise, living alone, with younger siblings or others (AOR = 2.51, 95% CI: 1.47-4.29) and violence experience from sexual partners (AOR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.59-2.27) were strongly associated with depression symptoms. Having savings (AOR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.70-0.95) and emotional support (AOR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.67-0.99) were protective against depression and anxiety, respectively.ConclusionDepressive and anxiety symptoms are prevalent among out-of-school AGYW in Tanzania. The findings emphasize the need to strengthen preventive interventions and scale-up mental health disorder screening, referral for diagnosis and management