Trading institutions and price discovery: the cash and futures markets for crude oil

We provide substantial evidence that the futures market for West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased the short-term volatility of the cash price of crude oil. We show that the variability of prices increased using both published posted prices and transaction prices for producers. This increased volatility in the price of crude oil may reflect information aggregated into the price, an increase the variance of shocks to the price of crude oil, or noise in the futures price that affects the cash price. We present evidence from experiments consistent with the interpretation that information aggregation not feasible in a posted-price market can explain at least part of the increase in variance. This evidence supports the proposition that information not previously aggregated into the cash price for crude oil is at least part of the reason for the greater variability of the cash price after the opening of the futures market and provides at least one example in which a futures market increased the volatility of the cash market, and prices became more efficient.

On the Search for Quasar Light Echoes

The UV radiation from a quasar leaves a characteristic pattern in the distribution of ionized hydrogen throughout the surrounding space. This pattern or light echo propagates through the intergalactic medium at the speed of light, and can be observed by its imprint on the Ly-alpha forest spectra of background sources. As the echo persists after the quasar has switched off, it offers the possibility of searching for dead quasars, and constraining their luminosities and lifetimes. We outline a technique to search for and characterize these light echoes. To test the method, we create artificial Ly-alpha forest spectra from cosmological simulations at z=3, apply light echoes and search for them. We show how the simulations can also be used to quantify the significance level of any detection. We find that light echoes from the brightest quasars could be found in observational data. With absorption line spectra of 100 redshift z~3-3.5 quasars or galaxies in a 1 square degree area, we expect that ~10 echoes from quasars with B band luminosities L_B=3x10^45 ergs/s exist that could be found at 95% confidence, assuming a quasar lifetime of ~10^7 yr. Even a null result from such a search would have interesting implications for our understanding of quasar luminosities and lifetimes.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, ApJ in pres

Variation in _PNPLA3_ is associated with outcomes in alcoholic liver disease

Two recent genome-wide association studies have described associations of SNP variants in _PNPLA3_ with nonalcoholic fatty liver and plasma liver enzyme levels in population based cohorts. We investigated the contributions of these variants to clinical outcomes in Mestizo subjects with a history of excessive alcohol consumption. We show that non-synonymous variant rs738409[G] (I148M) in _PNPLA3_ is strongly associated with alcoholic liver disease and progression to alcoholic cirrhosis (unadjusted OR = 2.25, P = 1.7x10^-10^; ancestry-adjusted OR = 1.79, P = 1.9x10^-5^)

Measuring the Cosmological Geometry from the Lyman Alpha Forest along Parallel Lines of Sight

We discuss the feasibility of measuring the cosmological metric using the redshift space correlation function of the Lya forest in multiple lines of sight, as a function of angular and velocity separation. The geometric parameter that is measured is f(z) = H(z) D(z)/c, where H(z) is the Hubble constant and D(z) the angular diameter distance at redshift z. The correlation function is computed in linear theory. We describe a method to measure it from observations with the Gaussianization procedure of Croft et al (1998) to map the Lya forest transmitted flux to an approximation of the linear density field. The effect of peculiar velocities on the shape of the recovered power spectrum is pointed out. We estimate the error in recovering the f(z) factor from observations due to the variance in the Lya absorbers. We show that ~ 20 pairs of quasars (separations < 3') are needed to distinguish a flat \Omega_0=1 universe from a universe with \Omega_0=0.2, \Omega_\Lambda=0.8. A second parameter that is obtained from the correlation function of the Lya forest is \beta \simeq \Omega(z)^{0.6}/b (affecting the magnitude of the peculiar velocities), where b is a linear theory bias of the Lya forest. The statistical error of f(z) is reduced if b can be determined independently from numerical simulations, reducing the number of quasar pairs needed for constraining cosmology to approximately six. On small scales, where the correlation function is higher, f(z) should be measurable with fewer quasars, but non-linear effects must then be taken into account. The anisotropy of the non-linear redshift space correlation function as a function of scale should also provide a precise quantitative test of the gravitational instability theory of the Lya forest.Comment: submitted to Ap

Reflecting on the Physics of Notations applied to a visualisation case study

This paper presents a critical reflection upon the concept of 'physics of notations' proposed by Moody. This is based upon the post hoc application of the concept in the analysis of a visualisation tool developed for a common place mathematics tool. Although this is not the intended design and development approach presumed or preferred by the physics of notations, there are benefits to analysing an extant visualisation. In particular, our analysis benefits from the visualisation having been developed and refined employing graphic design professionals and extensive formative user feedback. Hence the rationale for specific visualisation features is to some extent traceable. This reflective analysis shines a light on features of both the visualisation and domain visualised, illustrating that it could have been analysed more thoroughly at design time. However the same analysis raises a variety of interesting questions about the viability of scoping practical visualisation design in the framework proposed by the physics of notations

Calcific aortic valve disease and hypertension

This review addresses the role of hypertension in precipitating Calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) and the therapeutic potential of anti-hypertensive interventions to ameliorate CAVD. CAVD was originally considered to be a degenerative disease representing the &quot;wear and tear&quot; of the aortic valves. More recently both conceptually and experimentally, CAVD has come to be considered the result of an active disease process, Whilst, there are some common factors in the pathology and risk factors for atherosclerosis and CAVD there are also some distinct differences. Hypertension is an established risk factor for coronary artery disease and has been recognised as a risk factor for CAVD. Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors have been found to have beneficial effects in CAVD and as in atherosclerosis such effects may be due to the blood pressure lowering action but also to direct pleiotropic effects on the biochemical and cellular mechanisms of disease progression in the respective tissues. The very high prevalence of hypertension in the community coupled with an aging population, a risk factor associated with both hypertension and CAVD, infers that hypertension will be one of the predominant factors that increase the impact of CAVD on human health in the coming decades

Human influence strengthens the contrast between tropical wet and dry regions

Climate models predict a strengthening contrast between wet and dry regions in the tropics and subtropics (30 °S–30 °N), and data from the latest model intercomparison project (CMIP6) support this expectation. Rainfall in ascending regions increases, and in descending regions decreases in climate models, reanalyses, and observational data. This strengthening contrast can be captured by tracking the rainfall change each month in the wettest and driest third of the tropics and subtropics combined. Since wet and dry regions are selected individually every month for each model ensemble member, and the observations, this analysis is largely unaffected by biases in location of precipitation features. Blended satellite and in situ data from 1988–2019 support the CMIP6-model-simulated tendency of sharpening contrasts between wet and dry regions, with rainfall in wet regions increasing substantially opposed by a slight decrease in dry regions. We detect the effect of external forcings on tropical and subtropical observed precipitation in wet and dry regions combined, and attribute this change for the first time to anthropogenic and natural forcings separately. Our results show that most of the observed change has been caused by increasing greenhouse gases. Natural forcings also contribute, following the drop in wet-region precipitation after the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, while anthropogenic aerosol effects show only weak trends in tropic-wide wet and dry regions consistent with flat global aerosol forcing over the analysis period. The observed response to external forcing is significantly larger ( p > 0.95) than the multi-model mean simulated response. As expected from climate models, the observed signal strengthens further when focusing on the wet tail of spatial distributions in both models and data

Probing Dark Energy with Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations from Future Large Galaxy Redshift Surveys

We show that the measurement of the baryonic acoustic oscillations in large high redshift galaxy surveys offers a precision route to the measurement of dark energy. The cosmic microwave background provides the scale of the oscillations as a standard ruler that can be measured in the clustering of galaxies, thereby yielding the Hubble parameter and angular diameter distance as a function of redshift. This, in turn, enables one to probe dark energy. We use a Fisher matrix formalism to study the statistical errors for redshift surveys up to z=3 and report errors on cosmography while marginalizing over a large number of cosmological parameters including a time-dependent equation of state. With redshifts surveys combined with cosmic microwave background satellite data, we achieve errors of 0.037 on Omega_x, 0.10 on w(z=0.8), and 0.28 on dw(z)/dz for cosmological constant model. Models with less negative w(z) permit tighter constraints. We test and discuss the dependence of performance on redshift, survey conditions, and fiducial model. We find results that are competitive with the performance of future supernovae Ia surveys. We conclude that redshift surveys offer a promising independent route to the measurement of dark energy.Comment: submitted to ApJ, 24 pages, LaTe

p38 MAP kinase mediated proteoglycan synthesis as a target for the prevention of atherosclerosis

The major underlying pathology of most cardiovascular disease is the chronic inflammatory disease of atherosclerosis. Type 2 diabetes, also recognised as an inflammatory condition, accelerates the development of atherosclerosis. Current therapies for atherosclerosis target risk factors such as elevated blood lipids and hypertension and are of strong but limited efficacy. The &quot;response to retention&quot; hypothesis states that atherosclerosis is initiated by the accumulation of lipids through binding to extracellular matrix, and this is specifically the glycosaminoglycan (GAG) chains on proteoglycans. Many vasoactive agonists stimulate changes in the structure of the GAGs which increase lipid binding and the relevant signalling pathways are a potential therapeutic target. It has recently been demonstrated that the actions of transforming growth factor b; on vascular smooth muscle proteoglycan synthesis involves signalling through p38 MAP kinase and inhibition of this pathway reduces binding of lipids. Inhibition of p38 MAP kinase will elicit a wide spread antiinflammatory response which may alleviate some of the deleterious processes in cardiovascular tissues. This article explores the potential for the actions of p38 MAP kinase inhibitors directed at proteoglycan synthesis in vascular smooth muscle to contribute to the beneficial outcomes from targeting p38 MAP kinase for the prevention of cardiovascular disease

The finite size effect of galaxies on the cosmic virial theorem and the pairwise peculiar velocity dispersions

We discuss the effect of the finite size of galaxies on estimating small-scale relative pairwise peculiar velocity dispersions from the cosmic virial theorem (CVT). Specifically we evaluate the effect by incorporating the finite core radius $r_c$ in the two-point correlation function of mass, i.e. $\xi_\rho(r) \propto (r+r_c)^{-\gamma}$ and the effective gravitational force softening $r_s$ on small scales. We analytically obtain the lowest-order correction term for $\gamma <2$ which is in quantitative agreement with the full numerical evaluation. With a nonzero $r_s$ and/or $r_c$ the cosmic virial theorem is no longer limited to the case of $\gamma<2$. We present accurate fitting formulae for the CVT predicted pairwise velocity dispersion for the case of $\gamma>2$. Compared with the idealistic point-mass approximation ($r_s=r_c=0$), the finite size effect can significantly reduce the small-scale velocity dispersions of galaxies at scales much larger than $r_s$ and $r_c$. Even without considering the finite size of galaxies, nonzero values for $r_c$ are generally expected, for instance, for cold dark matter (CDM) models with a scale-invariant primordial spectrum. For these CDM models, a reasonable force softening r_s\le 100 \hikpc would have rather tiny effect. We present the CVT predictions for the small-scale pairwise velocity dispersion in the CDM models normalized by the COBE observation. The implication of our results for confrontation of observations of galaxy pair-wise velocity dispersions and theoretical predictions of the CVT is also discussed.Comment: 18 pages. LaTeX text and 8 postcript figures. submitted to Ap