Simulation of population’s reproductive behaviour patterns within an agent-oriented regional model

The study focuses on the research on how the unevenness of demographic transition affects the social and demographic characteristics and their dynamics of a region’s population. The research was conducted by means of computerized experiments (simulations) set within an original agent-oriented model. The study features the structure of the model represented by an artificial society, with its members (agents) being attributed their personal characteristics in such a way that they would imitate the gender and age of the region’s population. The agents are divided into two groups which differ in their reproductive strategy. Agents from Group 1 adhere to the traditional strategy characterized by a high birth rate, while the agents from Group 2 follow the modern strategy resulting in a markedly low birth rate. With the application of probabilistic mechanisms, the natural birth-death processes are imitated within the model. The extinction of agents occurs in accordance with the death rates adjusted for age and gender but remaining the same for the whole population. In the model, the appearance of new agents (birth of children) results from the choice made by reproductive-aged female agents, and their choice is influenced by the subjective traits determined by their group. The age and social structure of the regional population are generally formed as a result of the aggregation of particular agents’ activity. The model has been applied in a range of experiments on forecasting the number and structure of the population in an assumed region. The results showed that despite the apparent simplification of the reality, the developed agent-oriented model correctly represents both the initial condition of the regional population including the gender, age and social structure and the dynamics of the population’s basic characteristics.The research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project № 14-18-01968)

Application of Supercomputer Technologies for Simulation of Socio-Economic Systems

To date, an extensive experience has been accumulated in investigation of problems related to quality, assessment of management systems, modeling of economic system sustainability. The studies performed have created a basis for formation of a new research area — Economics of Quality. Its tools allow to use opportunities of model simulation for construction of the mathematical models adequately reflecting the role of quality in natural, technical, social regularities of functioning of the complex socioeconomic systems. Extensive application and development of models, and also system modeling with use of supercomputer technologies, on our deep belief, will bring the conducted researches of social and economic systems to essentially new level. Moreover, the current scientific research makes a significant contribution to model simulation of multi-agent social systems and that isn’t less important, it belongs to the priority areas in development of science and technology in our country. This article is devoted to the questions of supercomputer technologies application in public sciences, first of all, — regarding technical realization of the large-scale agent-focused models (AFM). The essence of this tool is that owing to increase in power of computers it became possible to describe the behavior of many separate fragments of a difficult system, as social and economic systems represent. The article also deals with the experience of foreign scientists and practicians in launching the AFM on supercomputers, and also the example of AFM developed in CEMI RAS, stages and methods of effective calculating kernel display of multi-agent system on architecture of a modern supercomputer will be analyzed. The experiments on the basis of model simulation on forecasting the population of St. Petersburg according to three scenarios as one of the major factors influencing the development of social and economic system and quality of life of the population are presented in the conclusion

Оценка эффективности механизмов укрепления государственного суверенитета России

In this article, the authors present a quantitative assessment of the consequences of a number of government decisions aimed at achieving accelerated economic growth, namely: 1) diversifcation of the economy; 2) reduction of the differentiation of regions; 3) increase of social protection of the population; 4) stimulation of the domestic demand. The authors used for calculations the modifed model complex developed in CEMI RAS. The complex includes a set of Computable General Equilibrium models (CGE models) and Agent-Based Models (ABMs). The author’s calculations showed, as compared with other industries, that the increase in fnancing of the sectors of the new economy leads for 7 years to the growth of GDP by 4.45 percentage points in relation to the basic version of the economy. We also established that due to tax preferences and differentiated investment policy in relation to the “problem” regions, it is possible to equalize the level of development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The authors conclude that the process of inter-regional smoothing is time-consuming and a signifcant effect is possible after fve years from the beginning of the implementation of the relevant mechanisms. The results of the calculations showed that the increase in benefts as a whole leads to GDP growth and has a positive impact on the economic system. We also concluded that the reduction of the refnancing rate leads to an increase in GDP and lower inflation. With the help of the model complex, we calculated the influence of a number of illegal fnancial transactions on the main macro indicators. Quantitative assessment was carried out in three scenarios: 1) withdrawal of budget funds; 2) tax evasion by individuals and legal entities; 3) withdrawal of fnancial assets abroad. The unrealized GDP growth potential for the six years compared to the initial period was 11.107, 21.323, and 31.976 percentage points for the three scenarios, respectively. The calculations also show that almost any cash infusion into the real sector of the economy leads to GDP growth due to signifcant demonetization of the Russian economy.В статье проведена количественная оценка последствий ряда государственных решений, нацеленных на достижение форсированного экономического роста, а именно: 1) диверсификация экономики; 2) снижение дифференциации регионов; 3) повышение социальной защищенности населения; 4) стимулирование внутреннего спроса. Для расчетов модифицирован и использован модельный комплекс, разработанный в ЦЭМИ РАН. В основу комплекса включен набор вычислимых моделей общего равновесия [ComputableGeneralEquilibrium (CGE) models] и агенториентированных моделей [Agent-BasedModels (ABMs)]. Расчеты показали, что увеличение финансирования отраслей новой экономики в сравнении с прочими отраслями приводит к росту ВВП за 7 лет на 4,45 процентных пункта по отношению к базовому варианту развития экономики. Также установлено, что за счет налоговых преференций и дифференцированной инвестиционной политики по отношению к «проблемным» регионам возможно выравнивание уровня развития субъектов РФ. Авторы делают вывод, что процесс межрегионального сглаживания является долгосрочным, и значимый эффект возможен после пяти лет от начала реализации соответствующих механизмов. Результаты расчетов показали, что увеличение пособий в целом ведет к росту ВВП и оказывает благоприятное воздействие на экономическую систему. Также сделан вывод, что уменьшение ставки рефинансирования приводит к увеличению ВВП и снижению инфляции. С помощью модельного комплекса рассчитано влияние на основные макропоказатели ряда незаконных финансовых операций. Количественная оценка проводилась по трем сценариям: 1) вывод бюджетных средств; 2) уклонение от уплаты налогов со стороны физических и юридических лиц; 3) вывод финансовых активов за рубеж. Нереализованный потенциал прироста ВВП за шесть лет по отношению к начальному периоду составил 11,107; 21,323 и 31,976 процентных пунктов для трех сценариев соответственно. Проведенные расчеты также свидетельствуют о том, что практически любое денежное вливание в реальный сектор экономики приводит к приросту ВВП в силу значительной демонетизации экономики России

Concentration of paramagnetic centres at low-temperature thermal destruction of asphaltenes of heavy petroleum distillates

© Kazan Federal University (KFU).Changes of paramagnetic centers (PC) concentration in dispersed petroleum systems were studied in the process of low-temperature thermolysis. The kinetic model of PC concentration dynamics based on the processes of unpaired electrons formation during singlet-triplet transitions, weak chemical bonds dissociation and recombination of free radicals is proposed. PACS: 75.20.-g, 96.20.Dt, 02.30.H

Performance Evaluation of the Mechanisms Strengthening the State Sovereignty of Russia

In this article, the authors present a quantitative assessment of the consequences of a number of government decisions aimed at achieving accelerated economic growth, namely: 1) diversifcation of the economy; 2) reduction of the differentiation of regions; 3) increase of social protection of the population; 4) stimulation of the domestic demand. The authors used for calculations the modifed model complex developed in CEMI RAS. The complex includes a set of Computable General Equilibrium models (CGE models) and Agent-Based Models (ABMs). The author’s calculations showed, as compared with other industries, that the increase in fnancing of the sectors of the new economy leads for 7 years to the growth of GDP by 4.45 percentage points in relation to the basic version of the economy. We also established that due to tax preferences and differentiated investment policy in relation to the “problem” regions, it is possible to equalize the level of development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The authors conclude that the process of inter-regional smoothing is time-consuming and a signifcant effect is possible after fve years from the beginning of the implementation of the relevant mechanisms. The results of the calculations showed that the increase in benefts as a whole leads to GDP growth and has a positive impact on the economic system. We also concluded that the reduction of the refnancing rate leads to an increase in GDP and lower inflation. With the help of the model complex, we calculated the influence of a number of illegal fnancial transactions on the main macro indicators. Quantitative assessment was carried out in three scenarios: 1) withdrawal of budget funds; 2) tax evasion by individuals and legal entities; 3) withdrawal of fnancial assets abroad. The unrealized GDP growth potential for the six years compared to the initial period was 11.107, 21.323, and 31.976 percentage points for the three scenarios, respectively. The calculations also show that almost any cash infusion into the real sector of the economy leads to GDP growth due to signifcant demonetization of the Russian economy

Transformation of the System of Training Specialists during the Transition to FSES 3++

Currently, the universities in the Russian Federation are engaged in the updating of the educational programs being implemented, in accordance with the requirements of the Federal State Educational Standard 3 ++. The article provides information on the conceptual changes in the State Educational Standard, Federal State Educational Standard, and Federal State Educational Standard 3 ++ , as well as on the new opportunities universities have in connection with the introduction of the “two plus” generation standard. By an example of the project “NetworkElectronicUniversityof theRepublicofBashkortostan” the article shows the network interaction on issues of the formation of universal competences. New opportunities for universities during the transition to FSES 3 ++ are considered in the context of globalization conditions. The universities are suggested to be considered not so much as a “talent foundry”, but rather as a presence territory development driver, a space for constant positive changes (4P) due to the comprehensive development of scientific, innovative, socio-cultural activities with concurrent integration into the educational environment. The implementation of such a model within the transition to FSES 3 ++ is proposed to be done by individualizing mass education, building flexible educational trajectories that most meet the needs of the parties involved. At the same time, the so-called soft skills should become an indispensable superstructure for the formation of professional competencies, as without them it is extremely difficult to train specialists able to adapt as quickly as possible to changes in the external environment, and, in conditions of uncertainty of occupational functions in the future, they become more important than hard skills