Molecular biology of breast cancer metastasis: The use of mathematical models to determine relapse and to predict response to chemotherapy in breast cancer

Breast cancer mortality rates have shown only modest improvemen despite the advent of effective chemotherapeutic agents which have been administered to a large percentage of women with breast cancer. In an effort to improve breast cancer treatment strategies, a variety of mathematical models have been developed that describe the natural history of breast cancer and the effects of treatment on the cancer. These models help researchers to develop, quantify, and test various treatment hypotheses quickly and efficiently. The present review discusses several of these models, with a focus on how they have been used to predict the initiation time of metastatic growth, the effect of operative therapy on the growth of metastases, and the optimal administration strategy for chemotherapy

Gallstones, cholecystectomy and risk of cancers of the liver, biliary tract and pancreas

To examine the association between gallstones and cholecystectomy, we conducted a nationwide population-based cohort study in Denmark. Patients with a discharge diagnosis of gallstones from 1977 to 1989 were identified from the Danish National Registry of Patients and followed up for cancer occurrence until death or the end of 1993 by record linkage to the Danish Cancer Registry. Included in the cohort were 60 176 patients, with 471 450 person–years of follow-up. Cancer risks were estimated by standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) stratified by years of follow-up and by cholecystectomy status. Among patients without cholecystectomy, the risks at 5 or more years of follow-up were significantly elevated for cancers of liver (SIR = 2.0, CI = 1.2–3.1) and gallbladder (SIR = 2.7, CI = 1.5–4.4) and near unity for cancers of extrahepatic bile duct (SIR = 1.1), ampulla of Vater (SIR = 1.0) and pancreas (SIR = 1.1). The excess risk of liver cancer was seen only among patients with a history of hepatic disease. Among cholecystectomy patients, the risks at 5 or more years of follow-up declined for cancers of liver (SIR = 1.1) and extrahepatic bile duct (SIR = 0.7), but were elevated for cancers of ampulla of Vater (SIR = 2.0, CI = 1.0–3.7) and pancreas (SIR = 1.3, CI = 1.1–1.6). These findings confirm that gallstone disease increases the risk of gallbladder cancer, whereas cholecystectomy appears to increase the risk of cancers of ampulla of Vater and pancreas. Further research is needed to clarify the carcinogenic risks associated with gallstones and cholecystectomy and to define the mechanisms involved. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Meta-analysis: Neither quick nor easy

BACKGROUND: Meta-analysis is often considered to be a simple way to summarize the existing literature. In this paper we describe how a meta-analysis resembles a conventional study, requiring a written protocol with design elements that parallel those of a record review. METHODS: The paper provides a structure for creating a meta-analysis protocol. Some guidelines for measurement of the quality of papers are given. A brief overview of statistical considerations is included. Four papers are reviewed as examples. The examples generally followed the guidelines we specify in reporting the studies and results, but in some of the papers there was insufficient information on the meta-analysis process. CONCLUSIONS: Meta-analysis can be a very useful method to summarize data across many studies, but it requires careful thought, planning and implementation

Breast and other cancers in 1445 blood relatives of 75 Nordic patients with ataxia telangiectasia

Epidemiological studies have consistently shown elevated rates of breast cancer among female blood relatives of patients with ataxia telangiectasia (AT), a rare autosomal recessive disease. A large proportion of the members of AT families are carriers of AT-causing gene mutations in ATM (Ataxia Telangiectasia Mutated), and it has been hypothesised that these otherwise healthy carriers are predisposed to breast cancer. This is an extended and enlarged follow-up study of cancer incidence in blood relatives of 75 patients with verified AT in 66 Nordic families. Blood relatives were identified through population registry linkages, and the occurrence of cancer was determined from cancer registry files in each country and compared with national incidence rates. The ATM mutation carrier probabilities of relatives were assigned from the combined information on location in family, consanguinity, if any, and supplementary carrier screening in some families. Among the 1445 blood relatives of AT patients, 225 cancers were observed, with 170.4 expected, yielding a standardised incidence ratio (SIR) of 1.3 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1–1.4). Invasive breast cancer occurred in 34 female relatives (SIR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2–2.4) and was diagnosed in 21 women before the age of 55 years (SIR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.8–4.5), including seven mothers of probands (SIR, 8.1; 95% CI, 3.3–17). When the group of mothers was excluded, no clear relationship was observed between the allocated mutation carrier probability of each family member and the extent of breast cancer risk. We concluded that the increased risk for female breast cancer seen in 66 Nordic AT families appeared to be restricted to women under the age of 55 years and was due mainly to a very high risk in the group of mothers. The findings of breast cancer risk in mothers, but not other likely mutation carriers, in this and other studies raises questions about the hypothesis of a simple causal relationship with ATM heterozygosity