Cardiovascular risk mapping in Netherlands and Australia: a comparative analysis : 2014 APHCRI / Radboudumc International Visiting Fellowship Report

Dr Nasser Bagheri of the Australian National University spent three months in The Netherlands exploring Cardiovascular risk mapping in Netherlands and Australia: a comparative analysis. This project aimed to identify ‘risk hot spots’ for preventable cardiovascular diseases (CVD) that will predict their likely development over time. This will allow interventions to be targeted to the right place, at the right time, to the right people and provide an innovative tool to help address the alarming rise of CVD in the Australian community.The research reported in this paper is a project of the Australian Primary Health Care Research Institute which is supported by a grant from the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing under the Primary Health Care Research Evaluation and Development Strategy

Spatial and temporal analysis of myocardial infarction incidence in Zanjan province, Iran

BACKGROUND: Myocardial Infarction (MI) is a major important public health concern and has huge burden on health system across the world. This study aimed to explore the spatial and temporal analysis of the incidence of MI to identify potential clusters of the incidence of MI patterns across rural areas in Zanjan province, Iran. MATERIALS & METHODS: This was a retrospective and geospatial analysis study of the incidence of MI data from nine hospitals during 2014–2018. Three different spatial analysis methods (Spatial autocorrelation, hot spot analysis and cluster and outlier analysis) were used to identify potential clusters and high-risk areas of the incidence of MI at the study area. RESULTS: Three thousand eight hundred twenty patients were registered at Zanjan hospitals due to MI during 2014–2018. The overall age-adjusted incidence rate of MI was 343 cases per 100,000 person which was raised from 88 cases in 2014 to 114 cases in 2018 per 100,000 person-year (a 30% increase, P < 0.001). Golabar region had the highest age-adjusted incidence rate of MI (515 cases per 100,000 person). Five hot spots and one high-high cluster were detected using spatial analysis methods. CONCLUSION: This study showed that there is a great deal of spatial variations in the pattern of the incidence of MI in Zanjan province. The high incidence rate of MI in the study area compared to the national average, is a warning to local health authorities to determine the possible causes of disease incidence and potential drivers of high-risk areas. The spatial cluster analysis provides new evidence for policy-makers to design tailored interventions to reduce the incidence of MI and allocate health resource to unmet need areas. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11695-8

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic:a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

SummaryBackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.FindingsGlobal all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.InterpretationGlobal adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Has the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown worsened eating disorders symptoms among patients with eating disorders? A systematic review

OBJECTIVE: During the coronavirus pandemic lockdowns, general medical complications have received the most attention, and few studies have examined the association between the COVID-19 lockdown and eating disorders (ED). This study aimed to investigate the impact of the coronavirus lockdowns on ED symptoms severity and summarize factors associated with lockdowns that led to changes in eating disorders. METHOD: PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane Library databases were searched for studies measuring the impact of coronavirus lockdowns on ED symptoms. RESULTS: A total of 132 studies were retrieved, after abstract screening and removal of duplicates, 21 papers were full-text screened, and 11 eligible papers were identified. Factors associated with symptomatic deterioration in ED patients during COVID-19 lockdowns included disruption of lifestyle routine, social isolation, reduced access to usual support networks, limited or no access to healthcare and mental care services, and social anxiety. DISCUSSION: Overall, the pandemic lockdowns were associated with worsening of eating disorders. This triggering environment can lead to increased anxiety and depression symptoms, change in dietary habits, and eventually result in worsening eating disorder symptoms

A spatio-temporal geodatabase of mortalities due to respiratory tract diseases in Tehran, Iran between 2008 and 2018: a data note

Objectives Respiratory tract diseases (RTDs) are among the top five leading causes of death worldwide. Mortality rates due to respiratory tract diseases (MRRTDs) follow a spatial pattern and this may suggest a potential link between environmental risk factors and MRRTDs. Spatial analysis of RTDs mortality data in an urban setting can provide new knowledge on spatial variation of potential risk factors for RTDs. This will enable health professionals and urban planners to design tailored interventions. We aim to release the datasets of MRRTDs in the city of Tehran, Iran, between 2008 and 2018. Data description The Research data include four datasets; (a) mortality dataset which includes records of deaths and their attributes (age, gender, date of death and district name where death occurred), (b) population data for 22 districts (age groups with 5 years interval and gender by each district). Furthermore, two spatial datasets about the city are introduced; (c) the digital boundaries of districts and (d) urban suburbs of Tehran

A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of the Socioeconomic, Lifestyle, and Environmental Factors Associated with Healthy Ageing in Low and Lower-Middle-Income Countries

Population ageing is a growing social and health issue in low and lower-middle-income countries (LLMIC). It will have an impact on rising healthcare costs, unaffordable pension liabilities, and changing healthcare demands. The health systems of many LLMICs are unprepared to meet these challenges and highlighting the modifiable factors that may help decrease these pressures is important. This review assessed the prevalence of healthy ageing and the modifiable factors that may promote/inhibit healthy ageing among older people in LLMIC. A systematic search of all articles published from 2000 to June 2022 was conducted in Scopus, PubMed (MEDLINE), and Web of Science. All observational studies reporting the prevalence of healthy ageing and its associations with socio-demographic, lifestyle, psychological, and social factors were examined. Random-effect models were used to estimate the pooled prevalence of healthy ageing, and meta-analyses were conducted to assess the risk/benefit of modifiable factors. From 3,376 records, 13 studies (n = 81,144; 53% of females; age ≥ 60 years) met the inclusion criteria. The pooled prevalence of healthy ageing ranged from 24.7% to 56.5% with lower prevalence for a multi-dimensional model and higher prevalence for single global self-rated measures. Factors positively associated with healthy ageing included education, income, and physical activity. Being underweight was negatively associated with healthy ageing. Almost half of older people in LLMIC were found to meet healthy ageing criteria, but this estimate varied substantially depending on the healthy ageing measures utilized (multi-dimensional = 24.7%; single indicator = 56.5%). The healthy ageing prevalences for both measures are lower compared to that in high-income countries. Developing health policies and educative interventions aimed at increasing physical exercise, social support, and improving socio-economic status and nutrition will be important to promote the healthy ageing of older people in LLMIC in sustainable ways.</p

Spatial heterogeneity in gender and age of fatal suicide in Iran

Background: The suicide incident has had an increasing trend in Iran over the past years. This study mainly aimed to investigate and visualize the spatial variations of registered suicide cases at the province level. A two-step modeling approach was employed in order to estimate the relative risks (RRs) and model the age of fatal suicide across provinces in Iran. Study design: An applied ecological study. Methods: This study used the suicide death data recorded by the Iranian forensic medicine organization from March 21, 2016, to March 20, 2018. Furthermore, a Bayesian spatial approach - Besag, York, and Mollie (BYM) model- was applied to estimate the RR of suicide across provinces in Iran. Results: This risk was found to be significantly higher than the average in both men and women in the west of Iran. For women, higher population density (mean: 0.003; 95% CrI: 0.001-0.005) and lower urbanization rate of provinces (mean: -0.025; 95% CrI: -0.038, -0.012) were associated with increased RR of suicide. Based on the log-normal model fitted to the data, the overall mean age of the fatal suicide at the national level was 34 years. Conclusions: The magnitude of gender and age differences was quantified, and many spatial variations were identified in suicide mortality across provinces in Iran. Given the heterogeneity in suicide mortality risk among different subgroups of age and gender, our findings point to the urgent need in developing gender- and age-specific suicide prevention strategies. Moreover, efficient allocation of healthcare resources for suicide prevention can be attained by targeting provinces with higher risk

Time spent on health related activity by older Australians with diabetes

AIMS There is little information available about what people do to look after their health, or how long people spend on health activities. This study identifies key health related activities and time taken as part of self management by people with diabetes. Management planning often lacks information that this study provides that would help clinicians and patients to create manageable and do-able plans that patients can follow. METHODS Data were collected in 2010 using a national survey of people aged 50 years the National Diabetes Services Scheme. Respondents provided recall data on time used for personal health care, non-clinical health activity; and health service interactions. Data were analysed using Stata 12 and SPSS 19. RESULTS While most people with diabetes spend on average less than 30 minutes a day on health-related activities (excluding exercise), the highest decile of respondents averaged over 100 minutes. Time spent increased with the number of co-existent conditions. Taking medication and sitting in waiting rooms were the most frequently reported activities. The greatest amount of time was spent on daily personal health care activities. CONCLUSION The time demands of diabetes for older people can be substantial. Better patient engagement in self management might result from a better match in care planning between the illness demands and the patient time availability, with potential to reduce admissions for hospital care