Reporting bias in drug trials submitted to the Food and Drug Administration: review of publication and presentation.

BackgroundPrevious studies of drug trials submitted to regulatory authorities have documented selective reporting of both entire trials and favorable results. The objective of this study is to determine the publication rate of efficacy trials submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in approved New Drug Applications (NDAs) and to compare the trial characteristics as reported by the FDA with those reported in publications.Methods and findingsThis is an observational study of all efficacy trials found in approved NDAs for New Molecular Entities (NMEs) from 2001 to 2002 inclusive and all published clinical trials corresponding to the trials within the NDAs. For each trial included in the NDA, we assessed its publication status, primary outcome(s) reported and their statistical significance, and conclusions. Seventy-eight percent (128/164) of efficacy trials contained in FDA reviews of NDAs were published. In a multivariate model, trials with favorable primary outcomes (OR = 4.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-17.1, p = 0.018) and active controls (OR = 3.4, 95% CI 1.02-11.2, p = 0.047) were more likely to be published. Forty-one primary outcomes from the NDAs were omitted from the papers. Papers included 155 outcomes that were in the NDAs, 15 additional outcomes that favored the test drug, and two other neutral or unknown additional outcomes. Excluding outcomes with unknown significance, there were 43 outcomes in the NDAs that did not favor the NDA drug. Of these, 20 (47%) were not included in the papers. The statistical significance of five of the remaining 23 outcomes (22%) changed between the NDA and the paper, with four changing to favor the test drug in the paper (p = 0.38). Excluding unknowns, 99 conclusions were provided in both NDAs and papers, nine conclusions (9%) changed from the FDA review of the NDA to the paper, and all nine did so to favor the test drug (100%, 95% CI 72%-100%, p = 0.0039).ConclusionsMany trials were still not published 5 y after FDA approval. Discrepancies between the trial information reviewed by the FDA and information found in published trials tended to lead to more favorable presentations of the NDA drugs in the publications. Thus, the information that is readily available in the scientific literature to health care professionals is incomplete and potentially biased

Correction: Reporting Bias in Drug Trials Submitted to the Food and Drug Administration: Review of Publication and Presentation

BACKGROUND: Previous studies of drug trials submitted to regulatory authorities have documented selective reporting of both entire trials and favorable results. The objective of this study is to determine the publication rate of efficacy trials submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in approved New Drug Applications (NDAs) and to compare the trial characteristics as reported by the FDA with those reported in publications. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This is an observational study of all efficacy trials found in approved NDAs for New Molecular Entities (NMEs) from 2001 to 2002 inclusive and all published clinical trials corresponding to the trials within the NDAs. For each trial included in the NDA, we assessed its publication status, primary outcome(s) reported and their statistical significance, and conclusions. Seventy-eight percent (128/164) of efficacy trials contained in FDA reviews of NDAs were published. In a multivariate model, trials with favorable primary outcomes (OR = 4.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33–17.1, p = 0.018) and active controls (OR = 3.4, 95% CI 1.02–11.2, p = 0.047) were more likely to be published. Forty-one primary outcomes from the NDAs were omitted from the papers. Papers included 155 outcomes that were in the NDAs, 15 additional outcomes that favored the test drug, and two other neutral or unknown additional outcomes. Excluding outcomes with unknown significance, there were 43 outcomes in the NDAs that did not favor the NDA drug. Of these, 20 (47%) were not included in the papers. The statistical significance of five of the remaining 23 outcomes (22%) changed between the NDA and the paper, with four changing to favor the test drug in the paper (p = 0.38). Excluding unknowns, 99 conclusions were provided in both NDAs and papers, nine conclusions (9%) changed from the FDA review of the NDA to the paper, and all nine did so to favor the test drug (100%, 95% CI 72%–100%, p = 0.0039). CONCLUSIONS: Many trials were still not published 5 y after FDA approval. Discrepancies between the trial information reviewed by the FDA and information found in published trials tended to lead to more favorable presentations of the NDA drugs in the publications. Thus, the information that is readily available in the scientific literature to health care professionals is incomplete and potentially biased

Quantifying Isoniazid Levels in Small Hair Samples: A Novel Method for Assessing Adherence during the Treatment of Latent and Active Tuberculosis.

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from an infectious pathogen worldwide and the most prevalent opportunistic infection in people living with HIV. Isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) reduces the incidence of active TB and reduces morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected patients independently of antiretroviral therapy. However, treatment of latent or active TB is lengthy and inter-patient variability in pharmacokinetics and adherence common. Current methods of assessing adherence to TB treatment using drug levels in plasma or urine assess short-term exposure and pose logistical challenges. Drug concentrations in hair assess long-term exposure and have demonstrated pharmacodynamic relevance in HIV.MethodsA large hair sample from a patient with active TB was obtained for assay development. Methods to pulverize hair and extract isoniazid were optimized and then the drug detected by liquid chromatography/ tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS-MS). The method was validated for specificity, accuracy, precision, recovery, linearity and stability to establish the assay's suitability for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). Hair samples from patients on directly-observe isoniazid-based latent or active TB therapy from the San Francisco Department of Public Health TB clinic were then tested.ResultsOur LC/MS-MS-based assay detected isoniazid in quantities as low as 0.02ng/mg using 10-25 strands hair. Concentrations in spiked samples demonstrated linearity from 0.05-50ng/mg. Assay precision and accuracy for spiked quality-control samples were high, with an overall recovery rate of 79.5%. In 18 patients with latent or active TB on treatment, isoniazid was detected across a wide linear dynamic range.ConclusionsAn LC-MS/MS-based assay to quantify isoniazid levels in hair with performance characteristics suitable for TDM was developed and validated. Hair concentrations of isoniazid assess long-term exposure and may be useful for monitoring adherence to latent or active TB treatment in the setting of HIV

Factors Associated with Findings of Published Trials of Drug–Drug Comparisons: Why Some Statins Appear More Efficacious than Others

Lisa Bero and colleagues found published trials comparing one statin with another were more likely to report results and conclusions favoring the sponsor's product than the comparison drug

Current sample size conventions: Flaws, harms, and alternatives

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The belief remains widespread that medical research studies must have statistical power of at least 80% in order to be scientifically sound, and peer reviewers often question whether power is high enough.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This requirement and the methods for meeting it have severe flaws. Notably, the true nature of how sample size influences a study's projected scientific or practical value precludes any meaningful blanket designation of <80% power as "inadequate". In addition, standard calculations are inherently unreliable, and focusing only on power neglects a completed study's most important results: estimates and confidence intervals. Current conventions harm the research process in many ways: promoting misinterpretation of completed studies, eroding scientific integrity, giving reviewers arbitrary power, inhibiting innovation, perverting ethical standards, wasting effort, and wasting money. Medical research would benefit from alternative approaches, including established <it>value of information </it>methods, simple choices based on cost or feasibility that have recently been justified, sensitivity analyses that examine a meaningful array of possible findings, and following previous analogous studies. To promote more rational approaches, research training should cover the issues presented here, peer reviewers should be extremely careful before raising issues of "inadequate" sample size, and reports of completed studies should not discuss power.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Common conventions and expectations concerning sample size are deeply flawed, cause serious harm to the research process, and should be replaced by more rational alternatives.</p

Association of low level viremia with inflammation and mortality in HIV-infected adults.

BackgroundWhether HIV viremia, particularly at low levels is associated with inflammation, increased coagulation, and all-cause mortality is unclear.MethodsThe associations of HIV RNA level with C-reactive protein (CRP), fibrinogen, interleukin (IL)-6 and mortality were evaluated in 1116 HIV-infected participants from the Study of Fat Redistribution and Metabolic Change in HIV infection. HIV RNA level was categorized as undetectable (i.e., "target not detected"), 1-19, 20-399, 400-9999, and ≥ 10,000 copies/ml. Covariates included demographics, lifestyle, adipose tissue, and HIV-related factors.ResultsHIV RNA level had little association with CRP. Categories of HIV RNA below 10,000 copies/ml had similar levels of IL-6 compared with an undetectable HIV RNA level, while HIV RNA ≥ 10,000 copies/ml was associated with 89% higher IL-6 (p&lt;0.001). This association was attenuated by ~50% after adjustment for CD4+ cell count. Higher HIV RNA was associated with higher fibrinogen. Compared to an undetectable HIV RNA level, fibrinogen was 0.6%, 1.9%, 4.5%, 4.6%, and 9.4% higher across HIV RNA categories, respectively, and statistically significant at the highest level (p = 0.0002 for HIV RNA ≥ 10,000 copies/ml). Higher HIV RNA was associated with mortality during follow-up in unadjusted analysis, but showed little association after adjustment for CD4+ cell count and inflammation.ConclusionHIV RNA ≥ 10,000 copies/ml was associated with higher IL-6 and fibrinogen, but lower levels of viremia appeared similar, and there was little association with CRP. The relationship of HIV RNA with IL-6 was strongly affected by CD4 cell depletion. After adjustment for CD4+ cell count and inflammation, viremia did not appear to be substantially associated with mortality risk over 5 years

Estrogen receptor-1 is a key regulator of HIV-1 latency that imparts gender-specific restrictions on the latent reservoir.

Unbiased shRNA library screens revealed that the estrogen receptor-1 (ESR-1) is a key factor regulating HIV-1 latency. In both Jurkat T cells and a Th17 primary cell model for HIV-1 latency, selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs, i.e., fulvestrant, raloxifene, and tamoxifen) are weak proviral activators and sensitize cells to latency-reversing agents (LRAs) including low doses of TNF-α (an NF-κB inducer), the histone deacetylase inhibitor vorinostat (soruberoylanilide hydroxamic acid, SAHA), and IL-15. To probe the physiologic relevance of these observations, leukapheresis samples from a cohort of 12 well-matched reproductive-age women and men on fully suppressive antiretroviral therapy were evaluated by an assay measuring the production of spliced envelope (env) mRNA (the EDITS assay) by next-generation sequencing. The cells were activated by T cell receptor (TCR) stimulation, IL-15, or SAHA in the presence of either β-estradiol or an SERM. β-Estradiol potently inhibited TCR activation of HIV-1 transcription, while SERMs enhanced the activity of most LRAs. Although both sexes responded to SERMs and β-estradiol, females showed much higher levels of inhibition in response to the hormone and higher reactivity in response to ESR-1 modulators than males. Importantly, the total inducible RNA reservoir, as measured by the EDITS assay, was significantly smaller in the women than in the men. We conclude that concurrent exposure to estrogen is likely to limit the efficacy of viral emergence from latency and that ESR-1 is a pharmacologically attractive target that can be exploited in the design of therapeutic strategies for latency reversal

Cortisol patterns are associated with T cell activation in HIV.

ObjectiveThe level of T cell activation in untreated HIV disease is strongly and independently associated with risk of immunologic and clinical progression. The factors that influence the level of activation, however, are not fully defined. Since endogenous glucocorticoids are important in regulating inflammation, we sought to determine whether less optimal diurnal cortisol patterns are associated with greater T cell activation.MethodsWe studied 128 HIV-infected adults who were not on treatment and had a CD4(+) T cell count above 250 cells/µl. We assessed T cell activation by CD38 expression using flow cytometry, and diurnal cortisol was assessed with salivary measurements.ResultsLower waking cortisol levels correlated with greater T cell immune activation, measured by CD38 mean fluorescent intensity, on CD4(+) T cells (r = -0.26, p = 0.006). Participants with lower waking cortisol also showed a trend toward greater activation on CD8(+) T cells (r = -0.17, p = 0.08). A greater diurnal decline in cortisol, usually considered a healthy pattern, correlated with less CD4(+) (r = 0.24, p = 0.018) and CD8(+) (r = 0.24, p = 0.017) activation.ConclusionsThese data suggest that the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis contributes to the regulation of T cell activation in HIV. This may represent an important pathway through which psychological states and the HPA axis influence progression of HIV