Model-assisted predictions on prognosis in HNSCC: do we learn?

Dedicated software packages incorporating prognostic models are meant to aid physicians in making accurate predictions of prognosis. This study concerns 742 predictions of 5-year survival on consecutive newly diagnosed patients with head- and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The 5-year survival predictions made by the physicians are not compared with actual survival, but with a prediction made by OncologIQ, a dedicated software package. We used a linear regression and a linear mixed-effects model to look at absolute differences between both predictions and possible learning effects. Predictions made by the physicians were optimistic and inaccurate. Using the linear regression and linear mixed-effects models, the physicians’ learning effect showed little improvement per successive prediction. We conclude that prognostic predictions in general are imprecise. When given feedback on the model’s predicted survival, the accuracy increases, but only very modestly

A mouse model for oral squamous cell carcinoma

Despite recent advances, the prognosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma is still poor. Therapeutic options such as radiotherapy, chemotherapy, surgery and the novel treatment option gene therapy are being investigated in animal models. Diverse models have been studied to induce oral squamous cell carcinomas. The carcinogenic 4-nitroquinoline-1-oxide (4NQO) model has proven to be successful although until now it is unknown at what time point the established tumor is a representative squamous cell carcinoma and has a suitable volume for scientific treatment. For this end we applied 4NQO 3 times a week during 16 weeks and measured the volume of tumor tissue each week until the end of the experiment at 40 weeks. Concurrent histopathology at different time points up to the end of the experiment revealed that all mice bearing oral tumors were diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma. Immunohistochemistry with markers cyclin D1 and E-cadherin revealed that the generated mouse oral tumors showed strong similarities with the described immunopathology in human oral tumors. The 4NQO model is a suitable alternative for preclinical gene therapy experiments with primary oral tumors. Future survey of therapeutic options in the carcinogenic 4NQO model should be conducted around 40 weeks after the start of the treatment