Probabilistic movement model with emigration simulates movements of deer in Nebraska, 1990–2006

Movements of deer can affect population dynamics, spatial redistribution, and transmission and spread of diseases. Our goal was to model the movement of deer in Nebraska in an attempt to predict the potential for spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) into eastern Nebraska. We collared and radio-tracked \u3e600 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in Nebraska during 1990–2006.We observed large displacements (\u3e10 km) for both species and sexes of deer, including migrations up to 100 km and dispersals up to 50 km. Average distance traveled between successive daily locations was 166m for male and 173 for female deer in eastern Nebraska, and 427m for male and 459 for female deer in western Nebraska. Average daily displacement from initial capture point was 10m for male and 14m for female deer in eastern Nebraska, and 27m for male and 28m for female deer in western Nebraska.We used these data on naturally occurring movements to create and test 6 individual-based models of movement for white-tailed deer and mule deer in Nebraska, including models that incorporated sampling from empirical distributions of movement lengths and turn angles (DIST), correlated random walks (CRW), home point fidelity (FOCUS), shifting home point (SHIFT), probabilistic movement acceptance (MOVE), and probabilistic movement with emigration (MOVEwEMI). We created models in sequence in an attempt to account for the shortcomings of the previous model(s). We used the Kolmogrov–Smirnov goodness-of-fit test to verify improvement of simulated annual displacement distributions to empirical displacement distributions. The best-fit model (D = 0.07 and 0.08 for eastern and western Nebraska, respectively) included a probabilistic-movement chance with emigration (MOVEwEMI) and resulted in an optimal daily movement length of 350m (maximum daily movement length of 2800m for emigrators) for eastern Nebraska and 370m (maximum of 2960m) for western Nebraska. The proportion of deer that moved as emigrators was 0.10 and 0.13 for eastern and western Nebraska, respectively. We propose that the observed spread of CWD may be driven by large movements of a small proportion of deer that help to establish a low prevalence of the disease in areas east of the current endemic area. Our movement models will be used in a larger individual-based simulation of movement, survival, and transmission of CWD to help determine future surveillance and management actions

WHOOPING CRANE STAY LENGTH IN RELATION TO STOPOVER SITE CHARACTERISTICS

Whooping crane (Grus americana) migratory stopovers can vary in length from hours to more than a month. Stopover sites provide food resources and safety essential for the completion of migration. Factors such as weather, climate, demographics of migrating groups, and physiological condition of migrants influence migratory movements of cranes (Gruidae) to varying degrees. However, little research has examined the relationship between habitat characteristics and stopover stay length in cranes. Site quality may relate to stay length with longer stays that allow individuals to improve body condition, or with shorter stays because of increased foraging efficiency. We examined this question by using habitat data collected at 605 use locations from 449 stopover sites throughout the United States Great Plains visited by 58 whooping cranes from the Aransas–Wood Buffalo Population tracked with platform transmitting terminals. Research staff compiled land cover (e.g., hectares of corn; landscape level) and habitat metric (e.g., maximum water depth; site level) data for day use and evening roost locations via site visits and geospatial mapping. We used Random Forest regression analyses to estimate importance of covariates for predicting stopover stay length. Site-level variables explained 9% of variation in stay length, whereas landscape-level variables explained 43%. Stay length increased with latitude and the proportion of land cover as open-water slough with emergent vegetation as well as alfalfa, whereas stay length decreased as open-water lacustrine wetland land cover increased. At the site level, stopover duration increased with wetted width at riverine sites but decreased with wetted width at palustrine and lacustrine wetland sites. Stopover duration increased with mean distance to visual obstruction as well as where management had reduced the height of vegetation through natural (e.g., grazing) or mechanical (e.g., harvesting) means and decreased with maximum water depth. Our results suggest that stopover length increases with the availability of preferred land cover types for foraging. High quality stopover sites with abundant forage resources may help whooping cranes maintain fat reserves important to their annual life cycle

Biological Case Against Downlisting the Whooping Crane and for Improving Implementation under the Endangered Species Act

The Whooping Crane (Grus americana; WHCR) is a large, long-lived bird endemic to North America. The remnant population migrates between Aransas National Wildlife Refuge, USA, and Wood Buffalo National Park, Canada (AWBP), and has recovered from a nadir of 15-16 birds in 1941 to ~540 birds in 2022. Two ongoing reintroduction efforts in Louisiana and the Eastern Flyway together total ~150 birds. Evidence indicates the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) is strongly considering downlisting the species from an endangered to a threatened status under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). We examined the current status of the WHCR through the lens of ESA threat factors, the USFWS’s Species Status Assessment (SSA) framework, and other avian downlisting actions to determine if the action is biologically warranted. Our research indicates that WHCRs are facing an intensification of most threat drivers across populations and important ranges. The AWBP is still relatively small compared to other crane species and most birds of conservation concern. To date, only one avian species has been downlisted from an endangered status with an estimated population of \u3c3,000 individuals. Representation in terms of WHCRs historic genetic, geographic, and life history variation remains limited. Also, the lack of spatial connectivity among populations, reliance of the reintroduced populations on supplementation, and continued habitat loss suggest that WHCR populations may not be resilient to large stochastic disturbances. Given that reintroduced populations are not self-sustaining, neither supplies true redundancy for the AWBP. Proposed downlisting before recovery plan population criteria have been met is objectively unwarranted 3 and reflects USFWS inconsistency across ESA actions. Only by incorporating basic quantitative criteria and added oversight into ESA listing decisions can we avoid an action as misguided as downlisting the Whooping Crane without consideration of its recovery plan criteria or ostensibly its population ecology

C-Fos expression is a molecular predictor of progression and survival in epithelial ovarian carcinoma

Members of the Fos protein family dimerise with Jun proteins to form the AP-1 transcription factor complex. They have a central function in proliferation and differentiation of normal tissue as well as in oncogenic transformation and tumour progression. We analysed the expression of c-Fos, FosB, Fra-1 and Fra-2 to investigate the function of Fos transcription factors in ovarian cancer. A total of 101 patients were included in the study. Expression of Fos proteins was determined by western blot analysis, quantified by densitometry and verified by immunohistochemistry. Reduced c-Fos expression was independently associated with unfavourable progression-free survival (20.6, 31.6 and 51.2 months for patients with low, moderate and high c-Fos expression; P=0.003) as well as overall survival (23.8, 46.0 and 55.5 months for low, moderate and high c-Fos levels; P=0.003). No correlations were observed for FosB, Fra-1 and Fra-2. We conclude that loss of c-Fos expression is associated with tumour progression in ovarian carcinoma and that c-Fos may be a prognostic factor. These results are in contrast to the classic concept of c-Fos as an oncogene, but are supported by the recently discovered tumour-suppressing and proapoptotic function of c-Fos in various cancer types