Early bird catches the worm: finding the most effective early warning indicators of recessions

The paper examines whether certain macrofinancial indicators can be used for early detection of recessions. Analysing a sample of small open economies from Central and Eastern European Union, we first identify the most important indicators used for early detection of recessions, and then test the validity of the selection by using the signal method and multivariate probit regressions. Our results imply that the most effective predictors of upcoming recessions are the slope of the yield curve, current account balance to GDP ratio, real estate price index, self-financing ratio of commercial banks, nominal effective exchange rate, global exports and LIBOR rate. Using the Mann-Whitney U Test, we also find that foreign indicators emit earlier signals of incoming recessions in analysed countries than domestic ones. This type of research is important because of the various stakeholders that base their decisions on the signals provided by these indicators. Primarily, these are various government agencies that participate in monetary and fiscal policy making. Early warning of an impending recession allows economic policy makers to take corrective action to avoid a recession or to significantly mitigate its effects, while unreliable indicators may lead to adoption of unnecessary measures with adverse effects on the economy

Željko Hećimović, doktor tehničkih znanosti

U radu je dan životopis i prikaz doktorskog rada Željka Hećimovića, doktora tehničkih znanosti

Mario Brkić, doktor prirodnih znanosti

U radu je dan životopis i prikaz doktorskog rada Marija Brkića, doktora prirodnih znanosti

Danko Markovinović, magistar tehničkih znanosti

U radu je dan životopis i prikaz magistarskog rada Danka Markovinovića, magistra tehničkih znanosti

Danko Markovinović, magistar tehničkih znanosti

U radu je dan životopis i prikaz magistarskog rada Danka Markovinovića, magistra tehničkih znanosti

Olga Bjelotomić, doktorica tehničkih znanosti

Olga Bjelotomić defended her PhD thesis High Resolution Geoid Modelling of Croatia at the Faculty of Geodesy, University of Zagreb on May 15, 2015. The Defense Committee consisted of Assoc. Prof. Željko Hećimović from the Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Geodesy, University of Split, Prof. Dr. Tomislav Bašić (mentor) and Assist. Prof. Ramazan Alpay Abbak from Selcuk University in Konya, Turkey.Olga Bjelotomić obranila je 15. svibnja 2015. na Geodetskom fakultetu Sveučilišta u Zagrebu doktorsku disertaciju Modeliranje geoida visoke rezolucije na području Hrvatske. Doktorski rad obranjen je pred povjerenstvom u sastavu izv. prof. dr. sc. Željko Hećimović s Fakulteta građevinarstva, arhitekture i geodezije Sveučilišta u Splitu, prof. dr. sc. Tomislav Bašić i Assist. Prof. Ramazan Alpay Abbak sa Sveučilišta Selcuk u Konyi u Turskoj. Mentor je bio prof. dr. sc. Tomislav Bašić

Olga Bjelotomić, PhD in Technical Sciences

Olga Bjelotomić obranila je 15. svibnja 2015. na Geodetskom fakultetu Sveučilišta u Zagrebu doktorsku disertaciju Modeliranje geoida visoke rezolucije na području Hrvatske. Doktorski rad obranjen je pred povjerenstvom u sastavu izv. prof. dr. sc. Željko Hećimović s Fakulteta građevinarstva, arhitekture i geodezije Sveučilišta u Splitu, prof. dr. sc. Tomislav Bašić i Assist. Prof. Ramazan Alpay Abbak sa Sveučilišta Selcuk u Konyi u Turskoj. Mentor je bio prof. dr. sc. Tomislav Bašić.Olga Bjelotomić defended her PhD thesis High Resolution Geoid Modelling of Croatia at the Faculty of Geodesy, University of Zagreb on May 15, 2015. The Defense Committee consisted of Assoc. Prof. Željko Hećimović from the Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Geodesy, University of Split, Prof. Dr. Tomislav Bašić (mentor) and Assist. Prof. Ramazan Alpay Abbak from Selcuk University in Konya, Turkey

Mario Brkić, doktor prirodnih znanosti

U radu je dan životopis i prikaz doktorskog rada Marija Brkića, doktora prirodnih znanosti